For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Houston Texans 19, Cowboys 16 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:47, 2nd and 9, on DeAndre Hopkins — 42.0 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:47 · 2nd and 9
DeAndre Hopkins
Texans
(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DAL 27 for 49 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Dome
Texans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:47, Texans +42.0% win probability on one snap.
42.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Xavier WoodsCowboysQ4 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [54-J.Smith] at DAL 32. 25-X.Woods pushed ob at DAL 47 for 15 yards (10-D.Hopkins).
35.4pts
Ezekiel ElliottTexansOT 6:23(6:23) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 42 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham).
17.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — -0.16 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.47 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 39% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Cowboys176 of 189 plays carry both curves
(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DAL 27 for 49 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Swing +42.0 for TexansExpected points +3.55 for TexansModel and market agree here.play 181
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:47HOU +42% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DAL 27 for 49 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
4th · 0:20DAL +35% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [54-J.Smith] at DAL 32. 25-X.Woods pushed ob at DAL 47 for 15 yards (10-D.Hopkins).
Overtime · 6:23DAL +18% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 42 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham).
3rd · 14:03DAL +17% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 32 for 1 yard (30-A.Brown). FUMBLES (30-A.Brown), RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Lewis at HOU 30. 27-J.Lewis to HOU 16 for 14 yards (66-N.Martin).
4th · 8:31HOU +15% win prob(8:31) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 10-T.Austin to HOU 31 for 44 yards (20-J.Reid) [41-Z.Cunningham].
3rd · 8:06DAL +14% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 15-D.Thompson INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid (24-J.Joseph) at DAL 35. 20-J.Reid to DAL 29 for 6 yards (15-D.Thompson). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 36-yard field goal with 1:55 left in overtime put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:06Brett Maher·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
1st3:13Brett Maher·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+36–0
2nd6:03Ka'imi Fairbairn·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+36–10
3rd11:57Allen Hurns·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+713–10
3rd5:05Ka'imi Fairbairn·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+313–13
4th8:34Ka'imi Fairbairn·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+313–16
4th5:43Brett Maher·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+316–16
Overtime1:55Ka'imi Fairbairn·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+316–19
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryTexans
Cowboys1–6Texans
293Total yards462
5.0Yards per play6.1
39%Success rate46%
29%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays5
14First downs22
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Texans ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Cowboys: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.13Texans: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Cowboys: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.03Texans: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Cowboys: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.47Texans: −0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 59 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Texans’s 76 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Texans 6.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.8% in week 4 against 19.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +4.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (+1.04× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Texans15.2%
right on their number · +1.6 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 19.6%, 4.0 points above their season mean of 15.6% and 1.0 times their own 3.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
52 dressed · 8 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%62 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%62 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%62 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%62 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
87Geoff SwaimTE · Full-time95%59 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Full-time81%50 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
11Cole BeasleyWR · Heavy rotation60%37 snaps
15Deonte ThompsonWR · Heavy rotation58%36 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Rotational39%24 snaps
10Tavon AustinWR · Rotational37%23 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational29%18 snaps
45Rod SmithRB · Situational18%11 snaps
80Rico GathersTE · Situational11%7 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational10%6 snaps
19Brice ButlerWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Adam RedmondCDavid IrvingDEMaliek CollinsDTXavier Su'a-FiloGSean LeeILBMike WhiteQBCooper RushQBDalton SchultzTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
D.Watson pass+42% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DAL 27 for 49 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
OT 3:47 · Texans · 2nd & 9 at HOU 24 · gained 49 · +3.55 EP · +42.0% win probability
174 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 79 yards from the HOU 19 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
754
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1671%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2755%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0535%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0955%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Cowboys3Texans0
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Texans 8
No good9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Cowboys 30
Cowboys6Texans0
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Texans 25
The period ended8 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Cowboys 43
2nd quarter49 plays
Cowboys6Texans6
Cowboys6Texans7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 1
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
Cowboys6Texans10
Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Cowboys 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Texans 39
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter42 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Cowboys12Texans10
Cowboys13Texans10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 3
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Cowboys 22
Cowboys13Texans13
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 3
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 26
4th quarter42 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 28
Cowboys13Texans16
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Cowboys 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw8.7 seconds
Cowboys16Texans16
Field goal6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Texans 30
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 30
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Cowboys 49
The period ended4 plays
Overtime21 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Texans 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Cowboys16Texans19
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Cowboys 18
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
