2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Dallas Cowboys

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -3.5 no coverU 45 ✓DomeTexans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Houston Texans 19–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:47, HOU +42% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:47DAL — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 9DAL 65%

(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DAL 27 for 49 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:47HOU +42% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins to DAL 27 for 49 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).
Q4 · 0:20DAL +35% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [54-J.Smith] at DAL 32. 25-X.Woods pushed ob at DAL 47 for 15 yards (10-D.Hopkins).
OT · 6:23DAL +18% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to HOU 42 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham).
Q3 · 14:03DAL +17% win prob(14:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 32 for 1 yard (30-A.Brown). FUMBLES (30-A.Brown), RECOVERED by DAL-27-J.Lewis at HOU 30. 27-J.Lewis to HOU 16 for 14 yards (66-N.Martin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Texans
Offensive plays	59	76
Total yards	293	462 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	-0.13 (edge)
Success rate	39%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	56%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	4/14	5/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	14	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

33/44, 375 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.1 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

18/29, 208 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-4.4 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

20 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

-7.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Alfred BlueRB

20 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-6.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

9/13 for 151 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Alfred BlueRB

8/8 for 73 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 2.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	10	66	4:57	Turnover on downs
2	HOU	HOU 25	9	45	4:15	Turnover on downs
3	DAL	DAL 38	5	37	2:38	Turnover on downs
4	HOU	HOU 30	10	70	4:30	Touchdown
5	DAL	DAL 25	6	20	1:43	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 19	12	69	5:57	Turnover on downs
7	DAL	DAL 25	11	36	4:29	Interception
8	HOU	HOU 31	8	67	1:28	Turnover on downs
9	DAL	DAL 2	1	0	0:03	End of half
10	HOU	HOU 25	4	5	1:09	Fumble
11	DAL	HOU 16	6	16	1:59	Touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 25	6	26	2:26	Punt
13	DAL	DAL 20	3	2	1:31	Interception
14	HOU	DAL 29	8	26	2:53	Turnover on downs
15	DAL	DAL 25	7	15	2:31	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 24	4	9	1:34	Punt
17	DAL	DAL 15	5	23	2:28	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 40	9	27	4:58	Turnover on downs
19	DAL	DAL 25	6	45	2:52	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 25	5	5	2:14	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 45	4	0	1:44	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 10	7	41	1:31	Interception
23	DAL	DAL 47	2	0	0:10	Turnover on downs
24	DAL	DAL 25	9	33	4:27	Punt
25	HOU	HOU 10	8	72	3:43	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 72 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	18/29	208	1	2	2	-4.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	20	54	2.7	-7.1
Dak Prescott	6	34	5.7	2.9
Rod Smith	3	10	3.3	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Geoff Swaim	3	3	55	0	11%	4.1
Tavon Austin	1	3	44	0	11%	-2.8
Rico Gathers	1	1	32	0	4%	2.3
Ezekiel Elliott	7	7	30	0	25%	-0.6
Deonte Thompson	2	4	19	0	14%	-2.2
Blake Jarwin	1	2	11	0	7%	0.3
Cole Beasley	1	3	8	0	11%	-1.2
Michael Gallup	1	3	6	0	11%	-1.2
Allen Hurns	1	2	3	1	7%	0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Smith	6	6	1.0	0	1
Leighton Vander Esch	9	3	0.0	0	0
Jeff Heath	5	5	0.0	0	1
Byron Jones	7	2	0.0	0	2
Xavier Woods	4	1	0.0	1	1
Tyrone Crawford	3	2	0.0	0	0
Anthony Brown	4	0	0.0	0	0
Randy Gregory	2	2	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	0	0.0	0	0
Ezekiel Elliott	1	0	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	33/44	375	1	1	1	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Alfred Blue	20	46	2.3	-6.9
Deshaun Watson	10	40	4.0	-2.8
Keke Coutee	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	9	13	151	0	30%	1.0
Alfred Blue	8	8	73	0	19%	2.4
Ryan Griffin	6	9	65	0	21%	0.3
Keke Coutee	6	7	51	1	16%	3.3
Will Fuller	2	3	15	0	7%	-1.5
Jordan Thomas	1	1	11	0	2%	0.7
Jordan Akins	1	2	9	0	5%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Cunningham	6	3	0.0	0	0
Benardrick McKinney	7	1	0.5	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	6	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	1	1
Kareem Jackson	4	0	0.0	1	2
Shareece Wright	3	1	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	2	1	0.5	0	0
Brandon Dunn	1	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Reader	2	0	0.0	0	0
Johnathan Joseph	0	2	0.0	0	3

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3.5
Closing total: 45
DAL moneyline: +156
HOU moneyline: -173

Texans closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 35 — under by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: DAL 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Bill O'Brien