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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
New York Jets 34, Broncos 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 10:57, 3rd and 9, on Robbie Chosen — 24.1 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:57 · 3rd and 9
Robbie Chosen
Jets
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 34–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:57, Jets +24.1% win probability on one snap.
24.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Bilal PowellBroncosQ1 10:45(10:45) 29-B.Powell right guard to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (99-A.Gotsis). FUMBLES (99-A.Gotsis), RECOVERED by DEN-99-A.Gotsis at NYJ 20. 99-A.Gotsis to NYJ 20 for no gain (29-B.Powell).
15.4pts
Isaiah CrowellJetsQ2 13:59(13:59) 20-I.Crowell left end for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.9pts
What separated them
Third down
Jets won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Broncos at 4 of 14 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jets won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Broncos at 7 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jets won this one — +0.16 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jets won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.04 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Broncos173 of 181 plays carry both curves
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +24.1 for JetsExpected points +7.27 for JetsThe model had Jets 14 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:57NYJ +24% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:59NYJ +19% win prob(13:59) 20-I.Crowell left end for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:45DEN +15% win prob(10:45) 29-B.Powell right guard to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (99-A.Gotsis). FUMBLES (99-A.Gotsis), RECOVERED by DEN-99-A.Gotsis at NYJ 20. 99-A.Gotsis to NYJ 20 for no gain (29-B.Powell).
3rd · 13:32DEN +9% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 19-A.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 95-D.Wolfe (56-S.Ray) at DEN 39. 95-D.Wolfe to DEN 41 for 2 yards (72-B.Shell).
2nd · 5:50NYJ +8% win prob(5:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 88-De.Thomas to NYJ 31 for 31 yards (26-M.Maye).
3rd · 12:13DEN +8% win prob(12:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum sacked at NYJ 49 for -11 yards (sack split by 92-L.Williams and 48-J.Jenkins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robbie Chosen's 76-yard touchdown catch with 10:57 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:26Courtland Sutton·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+77–0
2nd10:57Robbie Chosen·76-yd TD catch76-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+77–14
2nd4:01Brandon McManus·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+310–14
2nd1:17Robbie Chosen·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+710–21
3rd4:56Jason Myers·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+310–24
4th13:02Jason Myers·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+310–27
4th5:15Terrelle Pryor·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+710–34
4th3:27Demaryius Thomas·42-yd TD catch42-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum · two-point no good+616–34
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryJets
Broncos3–5Jets
436Total yards513
6.0Yards per play8.6
45%Success rate40%
29%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays10
25First downs18
4Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Jets ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.16Jets: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.03Broncos: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.17Jets: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Broncos: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.16Jets: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 73 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Jets’s 60 at 38%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Jets 6.
NoteJets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's pass rate over expected, −14.7 pts, is past their previous low of −10.8 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 4.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, +4.8 pts, is past their previous high of −0.0 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Jets12.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.8%, 24.7 points below their season mean of 54.5% and 1.9 times their own 12.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 10:57 · Jets · 3rd & 9 at NYJ 24 · gained 76 · +7.27 EP · +19.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 93 yards from the NYJ 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
948
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.1584%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.5646%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.5639%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.0419%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.2344%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.4883%
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Jets 46
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 19
Broncos6Jets0
Broncos7Jets0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 8
No good14 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 12
The period ended7 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Jets 41
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 46 to the Jets 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos7Jets6
Broncos7Jets7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Broncos7Jets13
Broncos7Jets14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 24
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 44
Broncos10Jets14
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Jets 7
Broncos10Jets20
Broncos10Jets21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Broncos 35
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 49
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Broncos 34
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Jets 38
Broncos10Jets24
Field goal13 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Broncos 31
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 32
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 49
Punt4 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Broncos10Jets27
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 3
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 6
Broncos10Jets33
Broncos10Jets34
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Broncos 15
Broncos16Jets34
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jets 42
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Broncos 45
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Jets 3
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
