2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Denver Broncos

New York JetsWinner

DEN -1 upsetO 42 ✓Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New York Jets 34–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:57, NYJ +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 10:57DEN — NYJ NYJ ball · 3rd & 9DEN 58%

(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 10:57NYJ +24% win prob(10:57) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-R.Anderson for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 13:59NYJ +19% win prob(13:59) 20-I.Crowell left end for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:45DEN +15% win prob(10:45) 29-B.Powell right guard to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (99-A.Gotsis). FUMBLES (99-A.Gotsis), RECOVERED by DEN-99-A.Gotsis at NYJ 20. 99-A.Gotsis to NYJ 20 for no gain (29-B.Powell).
Q3 · 13:32DEN +9% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 19-A.Roberts INTERCEPTED by 95-D.Wolfe (56-S.Ray) at DEN 39. 95-D.Wolfe to DEN 41 for 2 yards (72-B.Shell).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Jets
Offensive plays	73	60
Total yards	436	513 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	8.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.04	0.16 (edge)
Success rate	45% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	77%	38%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.03	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	4/14	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Jets won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

35/51, 377 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.5 expected points added · +1.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

10/22, 198 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

3.9 expected points added · -19.4% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah CrowellRB

15 att, 219 yds, 1 TD

12.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Bilal PowellRB

20 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

-8.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Robbie ChosenWR

3/5 for 123 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 11.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Demaryius ThomasWR

5/6 for 105 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 10	9	44	3:36	Punt
2	NYJ	NYJ 17	2	3	0:50	Fumble
3	DEN	NYJ 20	4	20	1:15	Touchdown
4	NYJ	NYJ 25	14	63	6:11	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 20	7	42	4:09	Punt
6	NYJ	NYJ 23	2	77	0:12	Touchdown
7	DEN	DEN 25	6	7	2:11	Punt
8	NYJ	NYJ 23	4	77	0:50	Touchdown
9	DEN	DEN 25	5	-8	1:40	Punt
10	NYJ	NYJ 41	4	3	1:04	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 14	11	79	4:04	Turnover on downs
12	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	70	2:45	Touchdown
13	DEN	DEN 25	6	6	0:54	Punt
14	NYJ	NYJ 4	1	0	0:19	End of half
15	NYJ	NYJ 12	5	53	1:33	Interception
16	DEN	DEN 41	5	10	2:01	Punt
17	NYJ	NYJ 15	13	64	6:34	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	15	2:18	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 40	4	9	1:36	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 5	4	0	0:58	Punt
21	NYJ	DEN 11	4	-1	2:01	Turnover on downs
22	DEN	DEN 25	11	69	3:54	Turnover on downs
23	NYJ	NYJ 7	7	93	3:55	Touchdown
24	DEN	DEN 25	9	75	1:52	Touchdown
25	NYJ	DEN 47	5	2	1:04	Punt
26	DEN	DEN 20	8	77	2:14	Interception

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 93 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	35/51	377	2	1	4	-1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	12	61	5.1	0	-2.3
Royce Freeman	5	31	6.2	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Demaryius Thomas	5	6	105	1	12%	7.3
Emmanuel Sanders	9	14	72	0	27%	-3.0
Devontae Booker	5	6	59	0	12%	2.8
DaeSean Hamilton	3	3	44	0	6%	2.8
Phillip Lindsay	3	4	20	0	8%	-1.2
Matt LaCosse	2	2	19	0	4%	1.3
Jeff Heuerman	2	4	18	0	8%	-0.2
Courtland Sutton	2	6	18	1	12%	-2.3
Royce Freeman	3	4	16	0	8%	-0.5
Tim Patrick	1	1	6	0	2%	-1.0
Brian Parker	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Justin Simmons	4	3	0.0	0	0
Todd Davis	5	1	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	2	3	0.0	0	1
Brandon Marshall	1	3	0.0	0	0
Adam Gotsis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Isaac Yiadom	2	1	0.0	0	0
Domata Peko	2	1	0.5	0	0
Darian Stewart	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Harris	1	2	0.0	0	2
Derek Wolfe	2	1	0.5	1	2

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	10/22	198	3	1	1	3.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Isaiah Crowell	15	219	14.6	1	12.9
Bilal Powell	20	99	5.0	0	-8.2
Sam Darnold	3	5	1.7	0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	3	5	123	2	23%	11.3
Terrelle Pryor	1	1	20	1	5%	4.1
Eric Tomlinson	2	3	15	0	14%	-1.2
Jermaine Kearse	1	4	14	0	18%	-1.7
Isaiah Crowell	1	1	12	0	5%	0.7
Jordan Leggett	1	1	10	0	5%	0.9
Andre Roberts	1	2	4	0	9%	-5.0
Quincy Enunwa	0	5	0	0	23%	-2.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Avery Williamson	7	2	0.0	0	0
Marcus Maye	6	2	0.5	1	1
Parry Nickerson	7	0	0.0	0	0
Darryl Roberts	5	1	0.0	0	0
Jamal Adams	5	1	0.0	0	0
Leonard Williams	2	3	2.0	0	0
Morris Claiborne	5	0	0.0	0	4
Darron Lee	4	1	0.0	0	0
Buster Skrine	3	0	0.0	0	1
Steve McLendon	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 42
DEN moneyline: -106
NYJ moneyline: -104

Broncos closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42; the game landed 50 — over by 8.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 77°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: DEN 6 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs Todd Bowles