2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Ford Field

Green Bay Packers

Detroit LionsWinner

DET -1 ✓O 50 ✓DomeLions closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.

Detroit Lions 31–23. Biggest swing: Q1 10:47, DET +23% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:47GB — DET DET ball · 4th & 17GB 54%

(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on t

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:47DET +23% win prob(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 2:41DET +12% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay to GB 5 for 60 yards (37-J.Jackson).
Q1 · 3:26GB +8% win prob(3:26) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
Q1 · 14:49DET +7% win prob(14:49) 33-K.Johnson left end pushed ob at DET 45 for 16 yards (38-T.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Lions
Offensive plays	77	56
Total yards	524 (edge)	265
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	49% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	78%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	3/10	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	31 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Packers outgained Lions 524–265 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

32/52, 442 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

10.2 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

14/26, 183 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · -13.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

12 att, 70 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

7 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

9/12 for 140 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Kenny GolladayWR

4/9 for 98 yds, 1 TD

35% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 29	10	29	4:26	Punt
2	DET	GB 1	2	1	0:04	Touchdown
3	GB	GB 12	14	49	7:08	Turnover on downs
4	DET	DET 31	5	69	2:16	Touchdown
5	GB	GB 14	4	3	0:57	Fumble
6	DET	GB 22	4	1	0:21	Turnover on downs
7	GB	GB 25	10	51	3:29	Turnover on downs
8	DET	DET 32	6	19	4:00	Punt
9	GB	GB 12	9	84	3:44	Turnover on downs
10	DET	DET 28	7	19	2:05	Punt
11	GB	GB 15	3	14	0:37	Fumble
12	DET	GB 29	5	22	0:38	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 25	2	0	0:15	End of half
14	GB	GB 25	13	77	5:20	Touchdown
15	DET	DET 30	9	28	3:45	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 45	13	55	4:41	Touchdown
17	DET	DET 25	10	56	3:19	Touchdown
18	GB	GB 25	10	75	3:54	Touchdown
19	DET	DET 25	5	4	3:14	Punt
20	GB	GB 25	7	42	2:13	Turnover on downs
21	DET	DET 46	7	17	2:30	Punt
22	GB	GB 3	6	74	1:02	Turnover on downs
23	DET	GB 41	2	0	0:02	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	32/52	442	3	0	4	10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Aaron Jones	7	40	5.7	0.8
Jamaal Williams	6	33	5.5	0.1
Ty Montgomery	4	15	3.8	-0.6
Aaron Rodgers	3	10	3.3	4.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	9	12	140	1	24%	13.5
Equanimeous St. Brown	3	5	89	0	10%	3.6
Jimmy Graham	6	10	76	0	20%	1.6
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	7	11	68	1	22%	1.3
Ty Montgomery	1	3	23	0	6%	0.4
Aaron Jones	2	3	19	0	6%	0.8
Jamaal Williams	2	4	19	0	8%	0.8
Lance Kendricks	2	2	8	1	4%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Antonio Morrison	4	1	0.0	0
Blake Martinez	4	1	2.0	0
Reggie Gilbert	3	1	0.0	0
Oren Burks	4	0	0.0	0
Dean Lowry	3	0	0.0	0
Kentrell Brice	3	0	0.0	1
Tramon Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Nick Perry	2	1	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	2	0	0.0	0
Kevin King	2	0	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	14/26	183	2	0	3	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	12	70	5.8	0	-0.5
LeGarrette Blount	12	22	1.8	2	-0.8
Theo Riddick	3	3	1.0	0	-2.1
Matthew Stafford	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenny Golladay	4	9	98	1	35%	9.0
Golden Tate	5	7	42	0	27%	2.0
Theo Riddick	2	3	20	0	12%	-1.9
Kerryon Johnson	2	2	15	0	8%	1.0
Marvin Jones	1	4	8	1	15%	1.8
Levine Toilolo	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Glover Quin	9	3	0.0	0
Quandre Diggs	8	1	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	5	3	0.0	2
Darius Slay	5	0	0.0	0
Da'Shawn Hand	4	0	1.0	0
Romeo Okwara	3	0	2.0	0
DeShawn Shead	2	1	0.0	0
Christian Jones	2	0	0.0	0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	2	0	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	1	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -1
Closing total: 50
GB moneyline: +114
DET moneyline: -125

Lions closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 50; the game landed 54 — over by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: GB 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Matt Patricia

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.