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Detroit Lions 31, Packers 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 10:47, 4th and 17 — 22.8 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:47 · 4th and 17
Unnamed on the sheet
Lions
(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Dome
Lions closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.
Detroit Lions 31–23. Biggest swing: Q1 10:47, Lions +22.8% win probability on one snap.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mason CrosbyLionsQ1 3:26(3:26) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
8.0pts
Kenny GolladayLionsQ1 2:41(2:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay to GB 5 for 60 yards (37-J.Jackson).
11.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 3 chunk plays.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Packers177 of 190 plays carry both curves
(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on t
Swing +22.8 for LionsExpected points +6.82 for LionsThe model had Lions 2 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:47DET +23% win prob(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 2:41DET +12% win prob(2:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay to GB 5 for 60 yards (37-J.Jackson).
1st · 3:26GB +8% win prob(3:26) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.
1st · 14:49DET +7% win prob(14:49) 33-K.Johnson left end pushed ob at DET 45 for 16 yards (38-T.Williams).
1st · 6:03DET +7% win prob(6:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 19-E.St. Brown to DET 40 for 17 yards (31-T.Tabor).
2nd · 5:13DET +5% win prob(5:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at DET 9 for 30 yards (23-D.Slay).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
LeGarrette Blount's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:34 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:34LeGarrette Blount·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
4th13:00Kenny Golladay·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+714–31
4th9:07Davante Adams·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Aaron Rodgersfrom Aaron Rodgers · kick no good, hit left upright+620–31
4th0:07Mason Crosby·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+323–31
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers5–4Lions
524Total yards265
6.8Yards per play4.7
49%Success rate32%
30%Third-down rate38%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
9Explosive plays3
31First downs15
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Packers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.07Lions: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Packers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.25Lions: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Packers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.12Lions: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 77 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Lions’s 56 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Lions 4.
NotePackers outgained Lions 524-265 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
GB's early-down pass rate, 73.0%, is past their previous high of 69.4% in week 3 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 4.
63 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.90× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Lions11.7%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.0%, 7.2 points above their season mean of 65.8% and 1.1 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Martin punts+22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(10:47) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to GB 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 20-K.King MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DET-39-J.Agnew at GB 1. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 10:47 · Lions · 4th & 17 at DET 48 · gained nothing · +6.82 EP · +21.8% win probability
175 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 84 yards from the GB 12 for a missed field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
37%
Yards
787
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.2280%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2158%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1269%
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.400%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.26100%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Packers 45
Packers0Lions6
Packers0Lions7
Touchdown2 plays
No good17 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Lions 23
Packers0Lions13
Packers0Lions14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Packers 1
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Packers 17
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Packers0Lions17
Field goal3 plays
No good10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 24
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Packers 49
No good9 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Lions 4
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 43
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 35
Packers0Lions23
Packers0Lions24
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Packers 7
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Packers6Lions24
Packers8Lions24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 3
Drive ended3 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 32
No good7 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Packers 37
Packers14Lions24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Lions 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 38
4th quarter54 plays
Packers14Lions30
Packers14Lions31
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 38 to the Packers 5
Packers20Lions31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 12
Punt7 plays
No good9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 33
Punt13 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Packers 36
Packers23Lions31
Field goal6 plays, from the Packers 3 to the Lions 23
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -1
Closing total
50
Packers moneyline
+114
Lions moneyline
-125
Lions closed -1 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 50; the game landed 54 — over by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Packers 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Mike McCarthy vs Matt Patricia
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 8:54
DET +5% win prob
(8:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 19-E.St. Brown. PENALTY on DET-31-T.Tabor, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards, enforced at GB 17 - No Play.
2nd · 1:00GB +5% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 26 for -9 yards (93-D.Hand). FUMBLES (93-D.Hand) [93-D.Hand], RECOVERED by DET-93-D.Hand at GB 29. 93-D.Hand to GB 29 for no gain (65-L.Taylor).
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers0
Lions6
