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Indianapolis Colts 24 at New England Patriots 38. Final.
Patriots -10.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
New England Patriots 38, Colts 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 15:00, 1st and 10, on Julian Edelman — 4.5 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 15:00 · 1st and 10
Julian Edelman
Patriots
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker; 99-A.Woods).
Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.
New England Patriots 38–24. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, Patriots +4.5% win probability on one snap.
4.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James WhiteColtsQ1 14:28(14:28) 28-J.White left tackle to NE 34 for no gain (96-D.Autry; 44-Z.Franklin).
3.6pts
Adam VinatieriPatriotsQ1 1:01(1:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 4-Vinatieri 673rd career FGA, passes G.Anderson for 2nd all-time (M. Andersen 709).
3.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.06 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 2 giveaways, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Colts188 of 197 plays carry both curves
(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker; 99-A.Woods).
Swing +4.5 for PatriotsExpected points +0.89 for PatriotsThe model had Colts 25 points higher than the market did.play 3
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 15:00NE +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker; 99-A.Woods).
1st · 14:28IND +4% win prob(14:28) 28-J.White left tackle to NE 34 for no gain (96-D.Autry; 44-Z.Franklin).
1st · 1:01IND +3% win prob(1:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 4-Vinatieri 673rd career FGA, passes G.Anderson for 2nd all-time (M. Andersen 709).
4th · 12:52NE +3% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 86-E.Swoope for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:50NE +3% win prob(11:50) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski to IND 18 for 19 yards (29-M.Hooker). NE 87-Gronkowski 7,430 career rec yds, passes Retzlaff for 8th all-time by a TE.
4th · 9:28NE +2% win prob(9:28) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 500th career TD pass, 3rd-most all-time. NE 12-Brady 71st different career TD target, new NFL record (Testaverde 70).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cordarrelle Patterson's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:03 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:03Cordarrelle Patterson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+70–7
4th1:14Eric Ebron·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+724–38
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryPatriots
Colts1–6Patriots
439Total yards440
5.4Yards per play6.8
42%Success rate57%
47%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays5
25First downs25
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers2
The read
Patriots ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.21Patriots: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Colts: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.22Patriots: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Colts: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.17Patriots: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 81 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Patriots’s 65 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
NE's pass rate over expected, +13.7 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of −0.9 pts in week 1.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 4.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points.
NE's early-down pass rate, 67.3%, is past their previous high of 60.4% in week 2 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 4.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Patriots10.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.3 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.7 pts, 14.1 points above their season mean of -0.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to IND 37 for 13 yards (29-M.Hooker).
Q1 12:30 · Patriots · 2nd & 6 at 50 · gained 13 · +1.21 EP · +6.1% win probability
186 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 198 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 198 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 80 yards from the IND 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
198 of 198 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
198
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
877
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR66-0.0279%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2781%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0030%
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.4740%
Patriots2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
198 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
198 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Colts0Patriots6
Colts0Patriots7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Colts 1
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 29
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Colts 44
No good14 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Patriots 20
The period ended3 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 33
2nd quarter59 plays
Colts0Patriots13
Colts0Patriots14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Colts 1
Colts3Patriots14
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 36
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 26
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Colts 26
Colts3Patriots20
Colts3Patriots21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Colts 6
Intercepted6 plays, from the Colts 30 to midfield
Colts3Patriots24
Field goal8 plays, from the Colts 49 to the Colts 27
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 49
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 9
Colts9Patriots24
Colts10Patriots24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 14
Intercepted7 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Colts 30
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 44
Intercepted6 plays, from midfield to the Colts 15
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Patriots 39
4th quarter57 plays
Colts16Patriots24
Colts17Patriots24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Patriots 13
Colts17Patriots30
Colts17Patriots31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Colts 34
Intercepted9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 49
Colts17Patriots37
Colts17Patriots38
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Patriots 15
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 21
Colts23Patriots38
Colts24Patriots38
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Patriots 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -10.5
Closing total
49.5
Colts moneyline
+452
Patriots moneyline
-537
Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 62 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 65°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Colts 4 days · Patriots 4 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Bill Belichick
1st · 6:10NE +2% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 30 for 24 yards (32-D.McCourty).
3rd · 5:10IND +2% win prob(5:10) 64-M.Glowinski reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short left to 20-J.Wilkins to IND 48 for 4 yards (32-D.McCourty). FUMBLES (32-D.McCourty), RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at 50. 32-D.McCourty to 50 for no gain (56-Q.Nelson).
