2018 Week 5 · Thu, Oct 4, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -10.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.

New England Patriots 38–24. Biggest swing: Q1 15:00, NE +4% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 15:00IND — NE NE ball · 1st & 10NE 80%

(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker; 99-A.Woods).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 15:00NE +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 9 yards (50-A.Walker; 99-A.Woods).
Q1 · 14:28IND +4% win prob(14:28) 28-J.White left tackle to NE 34 for no gain (96-D.Autry; 44-Z.Franklin).
Q1 · 1:01IND +3% win prob(1:01) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 4-Vinatieri 673rd career FGA, passes G.Anderson for 2nd all-time (M. Andersen 709).
Q4 · 12:52NE +3% win prob(12:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 86-E.Swoope for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Patriots
Offensive plays	81	65
Total yards	439	440 (edge)
Yards per play	5.4	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.01	0.21 (edge)
Success rate	42%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	74%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01	0.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	7/15	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	25	25
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

38/59, 365 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

5.5 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

34/44, 341 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

9.9 expected points added · +5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

18 att, 98 yds, 1 TD

3.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

15 att, 45 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · IND

Eric EbronTE

9/15 for 105 yds, 2 TD

25% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · NE

James WhiteRB

10/14 for 77 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	14	80	6:02	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 25	5	-6	1:40	Punt
3	NE	IND 49	4	5	1:08	Punt
4	IND	IND 6	14	74	5:12	Turnover on downs
5	NE	NE 28	9	57	3:44	Touchdown
6	IND	IND 25	10	39	3:25	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	5	1	0:56	Punt
8	IND	IND 22	4	5	2:30	Punt
9	NE	NE 32	12	78	3:49	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 30	5	20	0:56	Interception
11	NE	IND 49	5	27	0:25	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 25	2	9	0:13	End of half
13	IND	IND 25	7	24	2:18	Punt
14	NE	NE 5	4	4	0:58	Punt
15	IND	NE 35	5	35	1:56	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 32	7	38	2:51	Interception
17	IND	IND 30	4	18	1:57	Fumble
18	NE	50	5	35	2:34	Interception
19	IND	IND 20	11	80	4:38	Touchdown
20	NE	NE 25	8	75	3:29	Touchdown
21	IND	IND 25	9	26	2:04	Interception
22	NE	IND 34	2	34	0:07	Touchdown
23	IND	IND 25	13	55	3:45	Turnover on downs
24	NE	NE 15	4	6	0:20	Punt
25	IND	IND 40	7	60	1:52	Touchdown
26	NE	IND 44	3	0	1:11	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 80 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	38/59	365	3	2	1	5.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nyheim Miller-Hines	15	45	3.0	0	-3.2
Jordan Wilkins	6	39	6.5	0	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Eric Ebron	9	15	105	2	25%	5.7
Chester Rogers	8	11	66	0	19%	0.1
Ryan Grant	6	9	58	0	15%	5.5
Nyheim Miller-Hines	7	9	45	0	15%	-1.0
Erik Swoope	3	3	44	1	5%	5.6
Marcus Johnson	2	2	26	0	3%	2.2
Zach Pascal	1	7	12	0	12%	-9.6
Jordan Wilkins	2	2	9	0	3%	-5.2
Robert Turbin	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Malik Hooker	4	8	0	0
Zaire Franklin	1	10	0	0
Lenzy Pipkins	6	3	0	0
Najee Goode	4	4	1	1
Matthias Farley	1	5	1	2
Pierre Desir	1	5	0	0
Arthur Maulet	2	3	0	0
Anthony Walker	1	2	0	0
Jabaal Sheard	2	1	0	0
Denico Autry	1	2	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	34/44	341	3	2	0	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	18	98	5.4	1	3.5
James White	2	0	0.0	0	-1.0
Tom Brady	3	-1	-0.3	1	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James White	10	14	77	1	32%	4.3
Rob Gronkowski	6	7	75	0	16%	1.5
Julian Edelman	7	9	57	0	20%	1.0
Josh Gordon	2	4	50	1	9%	2.9
Chris Hogan	3	4	34	0	9%	-3.2
Phillip Dorsett	3	3	25	0	7%	0.9
Sony Michel	1	1	12	0	2%	0.7
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	2	11	1	5%	1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Devin McCourty	11	3	0.0	0	1
Patrick Chung	3	8	0.5	1	1
Kyle Van Noy	6	2	0.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	3	3	0.0	0	0
Jason McCourty	3	3	0.0	0	2
Dont'a Hightower	2	3	0.0	0	0
Jonathan Jones	5	0	0.0	1	2
Trey Flowers	1	3	0.5	0	0
Duron Harmon	1	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Shelton	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -10.5
Closing total: 49.5
IND moneyline: +452
NE moneyline: -537

Patriots closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 62 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: IND 4 days · NE 4 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Bill Belichick