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Jacksonville Jaguars 14 at Kansas City Chiefs 30. Final.
Chiefs -3 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Jaguars 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:21, 1st and 10, on Blake Bortles — 8.3 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:21 · 1st and 10
Blake Bortles
Chiefs
(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at KC 47 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). FUMBLES (55-D.Ford), RECOVERED by KC-57-B.Speaks at KC 49. 57-B.Speaks to KC 49 for no gain (78-J.Parnell).
Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:21, Chiefs +8.3% win probability on one snap.
8.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sammy WatkinsChiefsQ2 14:56(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at JAX 10 for 33 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
5.7pts
Tashaun GipsonJaguarsQ2 4:29(4:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Gipson at KC 49. 39-T.Gipson to KC 41 for 8 yards (87-T.Kelce).
5.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 2 giveaways, against Jaguars at 5 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 0.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Jaguars184 of 195 plays carry both curves
(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at KC 47 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). FUMBLES (55-D.Ford), RECOVERED by KC-57-B.Speaks at KC 49. 57-B.Speaks to KC 49 for no gain (78-J.Parnell).
Swing +8.3 for ChiefsExpected points +5.26 for ChiefsModel and market agree here.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:21JAX +8% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at KC 47 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). FUMBLES (55-D.Ford), RECOVERED by KC-57-B.Speaks at KC 49. 57-B.Speaks to KC 49 for no gain (78-J.Parnell).
2nd · 14:56KC +6% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at JAX 10 for 33 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
2nd · 4:29JAX +6% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Gipson at KC 49. 39-T.Gipson to KC 41 for 8 yards (87-T.Kelce).
1st · 6:05KC +5% win prob(6:05) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 17-D.Chark to KC 31 for 38 yards (20-S.Nelson).
2nd · 1:56JAX +5% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 24-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 95-C.Jones at JAX 20. 95-C.Jones for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on JAX-78-J.Parnell, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 4:29JAX +5% win prob(4:29) 9-L.Cooke punts 25 yards to KC 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 14 for 2 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Patrick Mahomes's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 6:44 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:44Patrick Mahomes·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
2nd13:33Harrison Butker·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+30–10
2nd2:00Harrison Butker·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+30–13
Jaguars ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Jaguars: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.08Chiefs: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Jaguars: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.26Chiefs: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.22Jaguars: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.20Chiefs: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 83 snaps at a 82% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 67 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 6, Chiefs 5.
NoteJaguars outgained Chiefs 502-426 but lost the turnover battle 5-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's early-down pass rate, 80.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 7.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 70.7% in week 3.
62 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.7 points.
JAX's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, sat 69.9 points above their season number of 30.1% — they went for it by 2.1 times their own 33.3-point weekly swing.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 4.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs20.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.6 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 68 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 69.9 points above their season mean of 30.1% and 2.1 times their own 33.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Bortles sacked−8% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at KC 47 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). FUMBLES (55-D.Ford), RECOVERED by KC-57-B.Speaks at KC 49. 57-B.Speaks to KC 49 for no gain (78-J.Parnell).
Q2 4:21 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at KC 41 · lost 8 · -5.26 EP · −7.7% win probability
182 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 83 yards from the JAX 14 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
41%
Yards
926
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR67-0.2990%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.2959%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.2848%
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+0.0486%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2850%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.3420%
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+1.3240%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 33
Jaguars0Chiefs6
Jaguars0Chiefs7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Jaguars 4
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 31
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Jaguars 43
2nd quarter56 plays
Jaguars0Chiefs10
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 43 to the Jaguars 4
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 3
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 33
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars0Chiefs13
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 49 to the Jaguars 9
Jaguars0Chiefs19
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars0Chiefs20
Intercepted14 plays, from the Jaguars 14 to the Chiefs 3
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 39
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Chiefs 45
Jaguars0Chiefs23
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to the Jaguars 20
Jaguars6Chiefs23
Jaguars7Chiefs23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Jaguars 14
4th quarter62 plays
Jaguars7Chiefs29
Jaguars7Chiefs30
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 22
Intercepted4 plays, from midfield to the Jaguars 42
Jaguars13Chiefs30
Jaguars14Chiefs30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 42 to the Chiefs 21
Turnover on downs7 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Chiefs 2 to the Chiefs 34
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jaguars 9 to the Chiefs 14
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Jaguarscategory by categoryChiefs
Jaguars0
Chiefs6
