2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -3 ✓U 48 ✓Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–14. Biggest swing: Q2 4:21, JAX +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:21JAX — KC JAX ball · 1st & 10KC 80%

(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at KC 47 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). FUMBLES (55-D.Ford), RECOVERED by KC-57-B.Speaks at KC 49. 57-B.Speaks to KC 49 for no gain (78-J.Parnell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:21JAX +8% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at KC 47 for -6 yards (55-D.Ford). FUMBLES (55-D.Ford), RECOVERED by KC-57-B.Speaks at KC 49. 57-B.Speaks to KC 49 for no gain (78-J.Parnell).
Q2 · 14:56KC +6% win prob(14:56) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins pushed ob at JAX 10 for 33 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
Q2 · 4:29JAX +6% win prob(4:29) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 10-T.Hill INTERCEPTED by 39-T.Gipson at KC 49. 39-T.Gipson to KC 41 for 8 yards (87-T.Kelce).
Q1 · 6:05KC +5% win prob(6:05) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 17-D.Chark to KC 31 for 38 yards (20-S.Nelson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Chiefs
Offensive plays	83	67
Total yards	502 (edge)	426
Yards per play	6.0	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	82%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.22 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	7/16 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	5	2 (edge)

Jaguars outgained Chiefs 502–426 but lost the turnover battle 5–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

33/61, 430 yds, 1 TD, 4 INT

-21.0 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

22/38, 313 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

10.1 expected points added · -3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

22 att, 87 yds, 1 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

T.J. YeldonRB

10 att, 53 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/8 for 100 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Sammy WatkinsWR

6/8 for 78 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 20	8	13	2:58	Punt
2	KC	KC 27	11	73	5:23	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 25	7	38	2:18	Punt
4	KC	KC 14	14	87	5:51	Turnover on downs
5	JAX	JAX 25	14	72	5:51	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 4	8	29	3:18	Interception
7	JAX	KC 41	1	-8	0:06	Fumble
8	KC	KC 49	6	27	2:19	Turnover on downs
9	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
10	JAX	JAX 14	11	68	1:37	Interception
11	KC	KC 20	1	0	0:12	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	6	14	1:47	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 23	5	32	2:10	Punt
14	KC	KC 2	12	93	5:36	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 25	8	75	2:17	Touchdown
16	KC	KC 21	8	64	3:13	Touchdown
17	JAX	JAX 25	12	53	3:38	Interception
18	KC	50	3	8	1:31	Interception
19	JAX	JAX 42	15	43	4:02	Touchdown
20	KC	JAX 48	7	39	1:15	Turnover on downs
21	KC	KC 2	8	31	3:29	Punt
22	JAX	JAX 9	6	77	0:58	Interception
23	KC	KC 20	1	0	0:04	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 93 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	33/61	430	1	4	5	-21.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	10	53	5.3	0	0.4
Blake Bortles	4	34	8.5	1	7.6
Corey Grant	1	8	8.0	0	0.6
Brandon Wilds	2	6	3.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Donte Moncrief	6	14	76	0	23%	-2.7
Keelan Cole	4	10	70	0	16%	-1.6
T.J. Yeldon	8	11	69	1	18%	-7.6
D.J. Chark	2	4	68	0	7%	2.1
Niles Paul	7	9	65	0	15%	1.3
Dede Westbrook	3	5	55	0	8%	3.8
James O'Shaughnessy	3	6	27	0	10%	-4.8
Austin Seferian-Jenkins	0	1	0	0	2%	-3.8
Tommy Bohanon	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Telvin Smith	7	6	0	0
Myles Jack	5	5	0	0
Calais Campbell	3	2	0	0
A.J. Bouye	4	1	1	2
Jalen Ramsey	4	0	0	0
Tyler Patmon	2	1	0	0
Barry Church	2	1	0	0
Jarrod Wilson	2	0	0	0
Taven Bryan	1	1	0	0
Marcell Dareus	2	0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	22/38	313	0	2	1	10.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	22	87	4.0	1	-4.9
Tyreek Hill	2	26	13.0	0	0.6
Patrick Mahomes	4	13	3.3	1	0.6
Spencer Ware	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5
Damien Williams	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	5	8	100	22%	5.7
Sammy Watkins	6	8	78	22%	6.1
Tyreek Hill	4	7	61	19%	1.9
Chris Conley	2	5	21	14%	-0.5
Anthony Sherman	1	1	15	3%	1.3
De'Anthony Thomas	1	1	13	3%	1.6
Spencer Ware	1	1	13	3%	2.1
Kareem Hunt	1	2	7	6%	-0.1
Demetrius Harris	1	2	5	6%	-0.8
Demarcus Robinson	0	1	0	3%	-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	8	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Lucas	5	2	0.0	1	1
Kendall Fuller	6	1	0.0	0	0
Terrance Smith	4	1	1.0	0	0
Dee Ford	4	1	1.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	2	1	0.0	1	2
Derrick Nnadi	3	0	0.0	0	0
Orlando Scandrick	3	0	0.0	1	4
Ron Parker	2	1	0.0	0	1
Xavier Williams	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3
Closing total: 48
JAX moneyline: +131
KC moneyline: -144

Chiefs closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: JAX 7 days · KC 6 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Andy Reid