2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · CenturyLink Field

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Seattle Seahawks

LA -7.5 no coverO 50.5 ✓Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:19, SEA +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:19LA — SEA SEA ball · 2nd & 8LA 71%

(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to LA 32 for 44 yards (32-T.Hill; 23-N.Robey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:19SEA +22% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to LA 32 for 44 yards (32-T.Hill; 23-N.Robey).
Q3 · 1:41SEA +21% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:19SEA +16% win prob(9:19) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:30SEA +15% win prob(1:30) 17-R.Woods right end to SEA 18 for 56 yards (26-LA.Griffin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Seahawks
Offensive plays	61	55
Total yards	470 (edge)	373
Yards per play	7.7 (edge)	6.8
Expected points added / play	0.21	0.24 (edge)
Success rate	52% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	57%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32	0.36 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.16 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	9
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

23/32, 321 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

10.2 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Passing · SEA

Russell WilsonQB

13/21, 198 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +4.9% completion over expected

Rushing · SEA

Chris CarsonRB

19 att, 116 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

22 att, 77 yds, 3 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Tyler LockettWR

3/4 for 98 yds, 1 TD

21% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

5/7 for 92 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 39	5	6	1:31	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 14	4	4	1:32	Punt
3	LA	SEA 12	3	5	1:42	Interception
4	SEA	SEA 26	10	84	5:45	Touchdown
5	LA	LA 42	7	58	2:30	Touchdown
6	SEA	SEA 25	7	5	2:12	Punt
7	LA	LA 20	8	69	3:35	Turnover on downs
8	SEA	50	6	50	2:02	Touchdown
9	LA	LA 30	10	70	3:09	Touchdown
10	SEA	SEA 39	9	22	4:07	Turnover on downs
11	LA	LA 17	9	45	1:55	Interception
12	SEA	SEA 25	11	75	4:26	Touchdown
13	LA	LA 36	11	64	5:30	Touchdown
14	SEA	SEA 25	9	75	3:29	Touchdown
15	LA	LA 26	7	69	1:41	Touchdown
16	SEA	SEA 13	8	10	4:20	Punt
17	LA	LA 18	9	61	4:29	Turnover on downs
18	SEA	SEA 22	7	48	2:37	Punt
19	LA	LA 21	7	23	3:28	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 84 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	23/32	321	1	2	1	10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	22	77	3.5	3	-1.8
Robert Woods	2	53	26.5	0	3.1
Jared Goff	5	15	3.0	0	0.9
Josh Reynolds	1	10	10.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	5	7	92	0	22%	3.4
Cooper Kupp	6	9	90	1	28%	6.0
Josh Reynolds	2	3	39	0	9%	2.8
Todd Gurley	4	5	36	0	16%	-4.2
Tyler Higbee	2	4	26	0	13%	0.6
Gerald Everett	3	3	24	0	9%	1.3
KhaDarel Hodge	1	1	14	0	3%	1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mark Barron	4	4	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	2	5	0.0	2
Ndamukong Suh	2	4	1.0	0
Marcus Peters	1	4	0.0	1
Lamarcus Joyner	1	4	0.0	0
Troy Hill	3	2	0.0	1
John Johnson	2	3	0.0	0
Matt Longacre	1	3	0.0	0
Nickell Robey	1	3	0.0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	2	0.0	0

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Russell Wilson	13/21	198	3	0	2	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Carson	19	116	6.1	0	2.6
Mike Davis	12	68	5.7	1	2.4
Tyler Lockett	1	6	6.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Lockett	3	4	98	1	21%	7.4
Nick Vannett	3	4	43	0	21%	2.9
David Moore	3	4	38	2	21%	5.6
Chris Carson	1	1	11	0	5%	0.7
Mike Davis	2	2	7	0	11%	-0.5
Doug Baldwin	1	1	1	0	5%	-0.8
Brandon Marshall	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7
Tre Madden	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.4
Darrell Daniels	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Bradley McDougald	8	2	0	0
Bobby Wagner	3	5	0	0
Tedric Thompson	6	2	1	1
Barkevious Mingo	6	1	0	0
Tre Flowers	4	1	0	1
Jarran Reed	2	3	0	0
Shaquill Griffin	2	2	0	0
Maurice Alexander	2	1	0	0
Justin Coleman	2	1	0	1
Neiko Thorpe	2	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7.5
Closing total: 50.5
LA moneyline: -315
SEA moneyline: +277

Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50.5; the game landed 64 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 53°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: LA 10 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.