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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · CenturyLink Field
Final
RamsLos Angeles33
BY 2final margin
SeahawksSeattle31
Los Angeles Rams 33 at Seattle Seahawks 31. Final.
Rams -7.5 no coverO 50.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Los Angeles Rams 33, Seahawks 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:19, 2nd and 8, on Tyler Lockett — 21.7 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:19 · 2nd and 8
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to LA 32 for 44 yards (32-T.Hill; 23-N.Robey).
Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:19, Seahawks +21.7% win probability on one snap.
21.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyler LockettSeahawksQ2 9:19(9:19) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8pts
David MooreSeahawksQ3 1:41(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
21.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 12 on third down, against Rams at 3 of 9 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Seahawks at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Rams162 of 177 plays carry both curves
(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to LA 32 for 44 yards (32-T.Hill; 23-N.Robey).
Swing +21.7 for SeahawksExpected points +2.60 for SeahawksThe model had Seahawks 14 points higher than the market did.play 161
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:19SEA +22% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett to LA 32 for 44 yards (32-T.Hill; 23-N.Robey).
3rd · 1:41SEA +21% win prob(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 83-D.Moore for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:19SEA +16% win prob(9:19) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:30SEA +15% win prob(1:30) 17-R.Woods right end to SEA 18 for 56 yards (26-LA.Griffin).
1st · 10:27LA +14% win prob(10:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 30-T.Gurley INTERCEPTED by 55-F.Clark (37-T.Flowers) at SEA 0. 55-F.Clark to SEA 26 for 26 yards (30-T.Gurley).
4th · 15:00SEA +10% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 17-R.Woods. PENALTY on SEA-26-LA.Griffin, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 10 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 39-yard field goal with 6:09 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd1:41David Moore·30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+724–31
4th14:57Todd Gurley·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+630–31
4th6:09Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+333–31
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categorySeahawks
Rams7–2Seahawks
470Total yards373
7.7Yards per play6.8
52%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate58%
4Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays9
26First downs17
1Sacks taken2
3Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Seahawks, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Rams: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.24Seahawks: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.32Rams: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.36Seahawks: +0.36 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Rams: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.16Seahawks: +0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 61 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 55 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Seahawks 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 24 pts
right on their number · −4.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Seahawks8.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.6%, 8.9 points below their season mean of 17.5% and 1.1 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:27) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 30-T.Gurley INTERCEPTED by 55-F.Clark (37-T.Flowers) at SEA 0. 55-F.Clark to SEA 26 for 26 yards (30-T.Gurley).
Q1 10:27 · Rams · 2nd & goal at SEA 2 · gained nothing · -7.22 EP · −20.9% win probability
160 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 79 yards from the LA 20 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
47%
Yards
841
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.2155%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.3655%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.190%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Seahawks 18
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 12 to the Seahawks 2
Rams0Seahawks6
Rams0Seahawks7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Rams 6
Rams6Seahawks7
Rams7Seahawks7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Seahawks 2
The period ended6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 41
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Rams10Seahawks7
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Seahawks 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Rams10Seahawks13
Rams10Seahawks14
Touchdown7 plays, from midfield to the Rams 39
Rams16Seahawks14
Rams17Seahawks14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Seahawks 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.1 seconds
Rams17Seahawks17
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Rams 32
Intercepted15 plays, from the Rams 17 to the Seahawks 30
3rd quarter40 plays
Rams17Seahawks23
Rams17Seahawks24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 3
Rams23Seahawks24
Rams24Seahawks24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Seahawks 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Rams24Seahawks30
Rams24Seahawks31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Rams 30
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Seahawks 15
4th quarter43 plays
Rams30Seahawks31
Touchdown3 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 5
Punt11 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Seahawks 36
Rams33Seahawks31
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Seahawks 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Rams 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
The period ended10 plays, from the Rams 21 to the Rams 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -7.5
Closing total
50.5
Rams moneyline
-315
Seahawks moneyline
+277
Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 64 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 54°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; 0.06 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Rams 10 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Pete Carroll
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 13:14
SEA +10% win prob
(13:14) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 25 for -6 yards (93-N.Suh). PENALTY on LA-23-N.Robey, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 31 - No Play.
3rd · 3:11SEA +10% win prob(3:11) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to LA 34 for 21 yards (20-L.Joyner; 22-M.Peters).
