2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

CIN -6 ✓U 47.5 ✓Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.

Cincinnati Bengals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q4 11:51, MIA +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 11:51MIA — CIN MIA ball · 2nd & 8MIA 79%

(11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 11:51MIA +32% win prob(11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:58MIA +20% win prob(3:58) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 · 0:40MIA +13% win prob(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:46MIA +12% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for 0 yards (96-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (96-C.Dunlap) [96-C.Dunlap], RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at MIA 19. 94-S.Hubbard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-70-J.James, Offensive Holding, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Bengals
Offensive plays	59	57
Total yards	297	333 (edge)
Yards per play	5.0	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.21	-0.07 (edge)
Success rate	47% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	63%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40	0.02 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.20
Third downs	4/13 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	15
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.21.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

20/30, 248 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.5 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Ryan TannehillQB

20/35, 185 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-14.7 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

22 att, 93 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

12 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

A.J. GreenWR

6/10 for 112 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Kenyan DrakeRB

7/11 for 69 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 18	9	28	3:24	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 10	11	77	6:29	Interception
3	MIA	MIA 19	6	16	2:15	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 8	9	32	4:22	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 5	12	100	6:08	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	8	56	3:28	Turnover on downs
7	MIA	MIA 27	6	31	2:39	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 17	4	4	0:52	Defensive touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:23	End of half
10	CIN	CIN 25	5	-9	2:10	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 48	6	13	3:25	Turnover on downs
12	CIN	CIN 25	9	42	4:18	Turnover on downs
13	MIA	MIA 25	5	9	1:43	Punt
14	CIN	CIN 29	9	61	3:30	Touchdown
15	MIA	MIA 19	6	14	3:11	Defensive touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 25	8	30	4:13	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 36	9	67	4:00	Turnover on downs
18	MIA	MIA 25	4	-2	0:53	Defensive touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 25	6	20	1:02	Interception
20	CIN	CIN 29	4	3	1:03	Punt
21	MIA	MIA 45	5	38	0:32	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 100 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	20/35	185	1	2	3	-14.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	12	63	5.3	3.2
Kenyan Drake	6	46	7.7	-1.1
Ryan Tannehill	3	17	5.7	0.3
Kalen Ballage	1	2	2.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kenyan Drake	7	11	69	1	33%	1.0
Albert Wilson	5	6	43	0	18%	3.1
Danny Amendola	3	4	30	0	12%	2.4
Mike Gesicki	3	5	26	0	15%	-0.3
Kenny Stills	2	5	17	0	15%	-2.2
Jakeem Grant	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Durham Smythe	0	1	0	0	3%	-7.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Reshad Jones	7	1	0.0	0	2
Jerome Baker	6	1	2.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	4	2	0.0	0	0
T.J. McDonald	3	3	0.0	0	0
Torry McTyer	3	2	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kiko Alonso	4	0	0.0	1	1
Charles Harris	2	1	0.0	0	0
Vincent Taylor	2	0	0.0	0	0
Davon Godchaux	1	1	0.0	0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	20/30	248	1	1	2	1.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	22	93	4.2	0	-4.0
Andy Dalton	4	10	2.5	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	6	10	112	0	33%	3.2
Tyler Boyd	4	7	44	0	23%	-0.3
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	43	0	7%	2.9
Alex Erickson	3	3	24	0	10%	1.4
Joe Mixon	3	4	22	1	13%	1.7
Mark Walton	2	3	3	0	10%	-1.4
Tyler Kroft	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Nick Vigil	7	2	0.0	0	1
Vontaze Burfict	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jessie Bates	4	1	0.0	1	1
Shawn Williams	2	2	0.0	0	0
Preston Brown	3	0	0.0	0	0
Darqueze Dennard	2	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Willis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Michael Johnson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Sam Hubbard	3	0	0.0	0	1
Carlos Dunlap	2	1	1.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -6
Closing total: 47.5
MIA moneyline: +227
CIN moneyline: -255

Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 44 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 87°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: MIA 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Marvin Lewis