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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
DolphinsMiami17
BY 10final margin
BengalsCincinnati27
Miami Dolphins 17 at Cincinnati Bengals 27. Final.
Bengals -6 ✓U 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Cincinnati Bengals 27, Dolphins 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 11:51, 2nd and 8, on Michael Johnson — 32.3 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 11:51 · 2nd and 8
Michael Johnson
Bengals
(11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Cincinnati Bengals 27–17. Biggest swing: Q4 11:51, Bengals +32.3% win probability on one snap.
32.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Randy BullockDolphinsQ2 3:58(3:58) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Illegal Formation, declined.
19.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetDolphinsQ2 0:40(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Dolphins at 3 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bengals won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.02 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.40 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Dolphins158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +32.3 for BengalsExpected points +7.91 for BengalsThe model had Dolphins 6 points higher than the market did.play 120
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 11:51MIA +32% win prob(11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:58MIA +20% win prob(3:58) 4-R.Bullock 37 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-V.Taylor), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Illegal Formation, declined.
2nd · 0:40MIA +13% win prob(:40) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at CIN 2 for 69 yards (16-C.Core). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:46MIA +12% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at MIA 18 for 0 yards (96-C.Dunlap). FUMBLES (96-C.Dunlap) [96-C.Dunlap], RECOVERED by CIN-94-S.Hubbard at MIA 19. 94-S.Hubbard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-70-J.James, Offensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 5:51MIA +10% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at MIA 33 for -10 yards (55-J.Baker).
4th · 15:00
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Randy Bullock's 20-yard field goal with 3:33 left in the 4th put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd7:28Kenyan Drake·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+77–0
2nd0:40Jakeem Grant·71-yd return TD71-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+714–0
3rd9:30Jason Sanders·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap J.Denney+317–0
3rd5:12Randy Bullock·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+317–3
4th15:00Joe Mixon·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+717–10
Bengals ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Dolphins: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.40Dolphins: −0.40 expected points added per play
+0.02Bengals: +0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Dolphins: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.20Bengals: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Bengals’s 57 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 1, Bengals 4.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, is past their previous high of 18.6% in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bengals24.3%
leaned — got home · +11.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+1.65× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.3%, 11.6 points above their season mean of 12.8% and 1.7 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
53 dressed · 8 never used
70Ja'Wuan JamesOT · Every snap100%64 snaps
62Ted LarsenC · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%64 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
66Travis SwansonC · Every snap100%64 snaps
10Kenny StillsWR · Full-time94%60 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Full-time83%53 snaps
32Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation64%41 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
86Mike GesickiTE · Rotational47%30 snaps
83Nick O'LearyTE · Rotational44%28 snaps
79Sam YoungT · Rotational41%26 snaps
21Frank GoreRB · Rotational41%26 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Situational23%15 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Situational11%7 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Bobby McCainCBCameron WakeDEAndre BranchDEBrock OsweilerQBDavid FalesQBZach SterupTA.J. DerbyTEDeVante ParkerWR
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 8 never used
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Clint BolingG · Every snap100%60 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Cordy GlennOT · Every snap100%60 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time92%55 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time85%51 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation78%47 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation75%45 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Heavy rotation60%36 snaps
81Tyler KroftTE · Rotational40%24 snaps
86Mason SchreckTE · Situational20%12 snaps
32Mark WaltonHB · Situational20%12 snaps
80Josh MaloneWR · Situational17%10 snaps
16Cody CoreWR · Situational13%8 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Billy PriceCJosh TupouDTGiovani BernardHBMalik JeffersonLBCedric OgbuehiOTJeff DriskelQBAuden TateWRJohn RossWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−36% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(11:51) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 81-D.Smythe INTERCEPTED by 90-M.Johnson [99-A.Billings] at MIA 22. 90-M.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 11:51 · Dolphins · 2nd & 8 at MIA 33 · gained nothing · -7.91 EP · −35.9% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 90 yards from the MIA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
39%
Yards
629
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.0460%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1263%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.3820%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3167%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-1.6783%
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Dolphins3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 46
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Dolphins 13
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 39
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Bengals 49
Dolphins6Bengals0
Dolphins7Bengals0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Dolphins 5 to the Bengals 22
No good8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Dolphins 19
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Bengals 42
Dolphins13Bengals0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 17 to the Bengals 25
Dolphins14Bengals0
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 27
Dolphins17Bengals0
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Bengals 24
Dolphins17Bengals3
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Dolphins 23
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Dolphins 13
4th quarter55 plays
Dolphins17Bengals9
Dolphins17Bengals10
Touchdown2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Dolphins17Bengals16
Touchdown6 plays, from the Dolphins 19 to the Dolphins 33
Dolphins17Bengals17
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Dolphins17Bengals20
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Dolphins 2
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Dolphins17Bengals26
Touchdown5 plays
Dolphins17Bengals27
Intercepted8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 47
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Bengals 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bengals -6
Closing total
47.5
Dolphins moneyline
+227
Bengals moneyline
-255
Bengals closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 44 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south-west; light drizzle.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Adam Gase vs Marvin Lewis
CIN +10% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 28-J.Mixon for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-C.Harris].
4th · 6:49CIN +10% win prob(6:49) 28-J.Mixon right end pushed ob at MIA 22 for 31 yards (22-T.McDonald).
1st · 5:18MIA +9% win prob(5:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 18-A.Green INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso (20-R.Jones) at MIA 4. 47-K.Alonso to MIA 19 for 15 yards (65-C.Boling; 66-T.Hopkins).
