2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Minnesota VikingsWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -3.5 upsetU 48 ✓Eagles closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 4:24, MIN +32% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:24MIN — PHI PHI ball · 1st & 10PHI 69%

(4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:24MIN +32% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:14MIN +20% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 35, RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Bradham at MIN 30. 53-N.Bradham to MIN 30 for no gain (32-R.Thomas).
Q3 · 9:41MIN +14% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi right tackle to MIN 5 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at MIN 5. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 5 for no gain (26-J.Ajayi).
Q4 · 9:33MIN +10% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [99-D.Hunter]. PENALTY on PHI-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 30.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Eagles
Offensive plays	59	55
Total yards	377 (edge)	366
Yards per play	6.4	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.07 (edge)	-0.08
Success rate	53% (edge)	51%
Dropback rate	66%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31 (edge)	-0.31
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

24/35, 311 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-0.8 expected points added · +10.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

30/37, 301 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.4 expected points added · +15.9% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Latavius MurrayRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jay AjayiRB

8 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-4.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

7/10 for 116 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

10/11 for 110 yds, 1 TD

34% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	13	65	6:20	Turnover on downs
2	PHI	PHI 20	4	-12	1:36	Punt
3	MIN	50	5	31	2:02	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 25	5	8	2:11	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 10	7	14	3:16	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 33	5	55	2:11	Turnover on downs
7	MIN	MIN 25	10	54	5:31	Turnover on downs
8	PHI	PHI 35	5	29	2:41	Defensive touchdown
9	PHI	PHI 26	5	8	1:27	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 44	9	44	2:24	Touchdown
11	PHI	PHI 22	2	3	0:21	End of half
12	PHI	PHI 27	10	68	5:27	Fumble
13	MIN	MIN 5	6	91	2:01	Turnover on downs
14	PHI	PHI 23	9	72	4:35	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIN 25	5	6	1:38	Punt
16	PHI	PHI 34	11	68	4:14	Touchdown
17	MIN	MIN 25	5	17	2:02	Fumble
18	PHI	MIN 30	4	0	0:52	Punt
19	MIN	MIN 11	11	55	6:24	Turnover on downs
20	PHI	PHI 25	9	67	1:38	Touchdown
21	MIN	50	3	0	1:09	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 91 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	30/37	301	1	0	1	10.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Latavius Murray	11	42	3.8	-0.4
Stefon Diggs	2	25	12.5	2.0
Roc Thomas	4	8	2.0	-1.2
Kirk Cousins	5	1	0.2	-7.5
Mike Boone	1	1	1.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Thielen	7	10	116	1	27%	5.9
Stefon Diggs	10	11	91	0	30%	4.8
Kyle Rudolph	5	5	41	0	14%	1.8
Laquon Treadwell	3	4	21	0	11%	1.2
Latavius Murray	2	2	14	0	5%	0.3
C.J. Ham	1	1	7	0	3%	0.4
Roc Thomas	1	2	6	0	5%	-1.5
David Morgan	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Aldrick Robinson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Barr	5	1	0.0	0
Eric Kendricks	4	2	0.0	0
Andrew Sendejo	5	0	0.0	0
Linval Joseph	3	1	1.0	0
Harrison Smith	4	0	0.0	1
Mike Hughes	3	0	0.0	0
Xavier Rhodes	3	0	0.0	1
Stephen Weatherly	2	0	1.0	0
Jayron Kearse	2	0	0.0	0
Eric Wilson	2	0	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	24/35	311	2	0	3	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jay Ajayi	8	29	3.6	-4.9
Wendell Smallwood	3	27	9.0	2.8
Carson Wentz	5	26	5.2	0.2
Josh Adams	1	-1	-1.0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	10	11	110	1	34%	8.0
Shelton Gibson	1	1	48	0	3%	3.1
Nelson Agholor	4	4	45	0	13%	2.8
Wendell Smallwood	3	4	44	1	13%	3.3
Alshon Jeffery	2	8	39	0	25%	-0.5
Dallas Goedert	2	2	16	0	6%	0.6
Jay Ajayi	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Jordan Matthews	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	7	2	0.0	0
Nigel Bradham	5	2	0.0	0
Sidney Jones	6	0	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	5	1	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	4	0	0.0	3
Avonte Maddox	4	0	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	3	0	0.0	0
Brandon Graham	3	0	1.0	1
Chris Long	2	0	0.0	0
Jay Ajayi	1	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -3.5
Closing total: 48
MIN moneyline: +162
PHI moneyline: -180

Eagles closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 44 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: MIN 10 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Doug Pederson