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2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
VikingsMinnesota23
BY 2final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia21
Minnesota Vikings 23 at Philadelphia Eagles 21. Final.
Eagles -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Minnesota Vikings 23, Eagles 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 4:24, 1st and 10, on Carson Wentz — 32.2 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:24 · 1st and 10
Carson Wentz
Vikings
(4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 48 ✓
Eagles closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Minnesota Vikings 23–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 4:24, Vikings +32.2% win probability on one snap.
32.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jay AjayiVikingsQ3 9:41(9:41) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi right tackle to MIN 5 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at MIN 5. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 5 for no gain (26-J.Ajayi).
13.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesQ4 10:14(10:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 35, RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Bradham at MIN 30. 53-N.Bradham to MIN 30 for no gain (32-R.Thomas).
20.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Vikings won this one — 4 of 11 on third down, against Eagles at 2 of 9 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Eagles at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.07 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.08 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Vikings156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −32.2 for EaglesExpected points −10.69 for EaglesModel and market agree here.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:24MIN +32% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:14MIN +20% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIN 35, RECOVERED by PHI-53-N.Bradham at MIN 30. 53-N.Bradham to MIN 30 for no gain (32-R.Thomas).
3rd · 9:41MIN +14% win prob(9:41) (Shotgun) 26-J.Ajayi right tackle to MIN 5 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by MIN-54-E.Kendricks at MIN 5. 54-E.Kendricks to MIN 5 for no gain (26-J.Ajayi).
4th · 9:33MIN +10% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [99-D.Hunter]. PENALTY on PHI-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 30.
1st · 8:43MIN +8% win prob(8:43) 5-D.Bailey 28 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
2nd · 14:35PHI +8% win prob(14:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 18-S.Gibson to MIN 19 for 48 yards (21-M.Hughes).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Linval Joseph's 64-yard touchdown with 4:24 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:06Dan Bailey·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Wile · snap K.McDermott+33–0
2nd12:27Jake Elliott·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–3
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.07Vikings: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.08Eagles: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Vikings: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.00Eagles: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Vikings: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.31Eagles: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Eagles’s 55 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Eagles 5.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 28.2%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 4.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
high through week 5Against their seasonOver Expected
PHI's pass rate over expected, +9.0 pts, is past their previous high of +7.5 pts in week 4 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points.
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 4 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.56× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Eagles28.2%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.28× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.2%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 18.4% and 1.3 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
53 dressed · 8 never used
74Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%62 snaps
79Tom ComptonT · Every snap100%62 snaps
69Rashod HillT · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Pat ElfleinC · Every snap100%62 snaps
8Kirk CousinsQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
19Adam ThielenWR · Full-time97%60 snaps
82Kyle RudolphTE · Full-time87%54 snaps
14Stefon DiggsWR · Full-time85%53 snaps
25Latavius MurrayRB · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
75Brian O'NeillT · Heavy rotation66%41 snaps
11Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational48%30 snaps
71Riley ReiffT · Rotational34%21 snaps
89David MorganTE · Rotational32%20 snaps
17Aldrick RobinsonWR · Situational24%15 snaps
32Roc ThomasRB · Situational23%14 snaps
30C.J. HamRB · Situational13%8 snaps
83Tyler ConklinTE · Situational11%7 snaps
22Harrison SmithFS · Situational3%2 snaps
44Mike BooneRB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Marcus SherelsCBTrae WaynesCBTashawn BowerDEEverson GriffenDEDevante DownsLBKyle SloterQBTrevor SiemianQBDalvin CookRB
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz sacked−33% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:24) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 39 for -8 yards (91-S.Weatherly). FUMBLES (91-S.Weatherly) [91-S.Weatherly], RECOVERED by MIN-98-L.Joseph at MIN 36. 98-L.Joseph for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:24 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at MIN 31 · lost 5 · -10.69 EP · −33.0% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 91 yards from the MIN 5 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
47%
Yards
741
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.1163%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28+0.0864%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.2176%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.2056%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
No good13 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Eagles 10
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 23
Vikings3Eagles0
Field goal5 plays, from midfield to the Eagles 19
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 20
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Vikings 17 to the Vikings 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Vikings3Eagles3
Field goal5 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Vikings 12
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Eagles 27
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Vikings9Eagles3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Vikings 31
Vikings10Eagles3
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Eagles 34
Vikings16Eagles3
Vikings17Eagles3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Eagles 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Vikings 6
Vikings20Eagles3
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Eagles 2
Vikings20Eagles6
Field goal10 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Vikings 10
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 34 to the Vikings 41
4th quarter48 plays
Vikings20Eagles12
Vikings20Eagles14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 12
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 42
Punt8 plays
Vikings23Eagles14
Field goal12 plays, from the Vikings 11 to the Eagles 34
Vikings23Eagles20
Vikings23Eagles21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Vikings 7
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Vikingscategory by categoryEagles
Vikings3
Eagles0
