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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York31
BY 2final margin
PanthersCarolina33
New York Giants 31 at Carolina Panthers 33. Final.
Panthers -7 no coverO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Carolina Panthers 33, Giants 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:06, 3rd and 10, on Graham Gano — 51.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:06 · 3rd and 10
Graham Gano
Panthers
(:06) 9-G.Gano 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Panthers closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Carolina Panthers 33–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, Panthers +51.4% win probability on one snap.
51.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike AdamsPanthersQ3 1:38(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at CAR 14. 29-M.Adams pushed ob at CAR 32 for 18 yards (85-R.Ellison).
17.0pts
Russell ShepardGiantsQ4 1:39(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 81-R.Shepard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 81-R.Shepard to CAR 15 for 40 yards (26-D.Jackson).
15.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Panthers won this one — 4 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 0 of 7 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 8 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Giants167 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:06) 9-G.Gano 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Swing +51.4 for PanthersExpected points +2.23 for PanthersModel and market agree here.play 179
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:06CAR +51% win prob(:06) 9-G.Gano 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
3rd · 1:38NYG +17% win prob(1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at CAR 14. 29-M.Adams pushed ob at CAR 32 for 18 yards (85-R.Ellison).
4th · 1:39CAR +15% win prob(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 81-R.Shepard for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 81-R.Shepard to CAR 15 for 40 yards (26-D.Jackson).
4th · 3:27CAR +12% win prob(3:27) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 13-J.Wright to NYG 17 for 27 yards (35-C.Riley).
4th · 1:15CAR +12% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:01NYG +11% win prob9-G.Gano kicks 74 yards from CAR 35 to NYG -9. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 17 for 26 yards. Lateral to 39-E.Penny to NYG 14 for -3 yards. Lateral to 87-S.Shepard to NYG 41 for 27 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at NYG 41.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 63-yard field goal with 0:06 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st7:30Aldrick Rosas·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+33–0
4th8:16Odell Beckham·33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning · two-point good+824–27
4th2:21Graham Gano·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+324–30
4th1:15Saquon Barkley·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning+731–30
4th0:06Graham Gano·63-yd field goal63-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+331–33
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryPanthers
Giants4–2Panthers
434Total yards351
7.9Yards per play5.4
42%Success rate42%
0%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays9
19First downs18
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Giants ahead 4–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Giants: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.12Panthers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Giants: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.28Giants: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.24Panthers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 55 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Panthers’s 65 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Panthers 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Panthers5.1%
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 30.9 points above their season mean of 35.7% and 1.3 times their own 24.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Graham Gano+47% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:06) 9-G.Gano 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 0:06 · Panthers · 3rd & 10 at NYG 45 · gained nothing · +2.23 EP · +47.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
784
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.0366%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1579%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.7247%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.2129%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.4217%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2350%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 40
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 6 to the Panthers 9
Giants3Panthers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 23
Giants3Panthers6
Giants3Panthers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Giants 25
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Panthers 43
2nd quarter45 plays
Giants3Panthers13
Giants3Panthers14
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Giants 32
Giants3Panthers17
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Giants 29
Giants9Panthers17
Giants10Panthers17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 49
Giants10Panthers20
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Giants 29
Drive ended4 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Giants13Panthers20
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Panthers 35
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 32
Giants16Panthers20
Field goal13 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Panthers 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Giants 16
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Panthers 25
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 35
4th quarter53 plays
Giants16Panthers26
Giants16Panthers27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 44 to the Giants 18
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 26
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 43
Giants22Panthers27
Giants24Panthers27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 34 to the Panthers 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Giants24Panthers30
Field goal17 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Giants 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Giants30Panthers30
Giants31Panthers30
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Panthers 15
Giants31Panthers33
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Giants 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Panthers -7
Closing total
43.5
Giants moneyline
+234
Panthers moneyline
-264
Panthers closed -7, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 64 — over by 20.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 79°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the east; 0.01 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Giants 7 days · Panthers 14 days
Coaches
Pat Shurmur vs Ron Rivera
4th · 0:11NYG +10% win prob(:11) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 13-J.Wright.
3rd · 3:44NYG +10% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Riley at NYG 10. 35-C.Riley to NYG 22 for 12 yards (12-D.Moore).
