For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Oakland Raiders 10 at Los Angeles Chargers 26. Final.
Chargers -5.5 ✓U 52 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
Los Angeles Chargers 26, Raiders 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:14, 1st and 10, on Austin Ekeler — 12.4 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:14 · 1st and 10
Austin Ekeler
Chargers
(4:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-M.Lee].
Chargers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 16.
Los Angeles Chargers 26–10. Biggest swing: Q2 4:14, Chargers +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Philip RiversRaidersQ1 11:52(11:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LV 31 for -6 yards (51-B.Irvin).
4.9pts
M.BryantChargersQ2 4:04(4:04) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-M.Bryant to LV 46 for 21 yards (57-J.Brown). FUMBLES (57-J.Brown), RECOVERED by LAC-37-J.Addae at LV 48. 37-J.Addae to LV 48 for no gain (12-M.Bryant). Penalty on LV-12-M.Bryant, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders149 of 161 plays carry both curves
(4:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-M.Lee].
Swing +12.4 for ChargersExpected points +4.15 for ChargersThe model had Raiders 9 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:14LAC +12% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-M.Lee].
2nd · 4:04OAK +7% win prob(4:04) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 12-M.Bryant to LV 46 for 21 yards (57-J.Brown). FUMBLES (57-J.Brown), RECOVERED by LAC-37-J.Addae at LV 48. 37-J.Addae to LV 48 for no gain (12-M.Bryant). Penalty on LV-12-M.Bryant, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 11:52OAK +5% win prob(11:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at LV 31 for -6 yards (51-B.Irvin).
3rd · 1:13OAK +4% win prob(1:13) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 85-D.Carrier INTERCEPTED by 54-M.Ingram at LAC -4. 54-M.Ingram to LAC 4 for 8 yards (76-J.Feliciano).
1st · 2:16LAC +4% win prob(2:16) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 82-J.Nelson pushed ob at LAC 38 for 29 yards (33-D.James).
1st · 5:41LAC +4% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to LV 44 for 19 yards (22-R.Melvin, 31-M.Gilchrist).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Ekeler's 44-yard touchdown catch with 4:14 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:14Caleb Sturgis·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+30–3
2nd13:27M.McCrane·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+33–3
2nd4:14Austin Ekeler·44-yd TD catch44-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+73–10
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, −4.9 pts, is past their previous low of −2.7 pts in week 3 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 5.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 9 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Chargers14.3%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -4.9 pts, 5.0 points below their season mean of 0.1 pts and 1.5 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Oakland Raiders
53 dressed · 9 never used
76Jon FelicianoG · Every snap100%53 snaps
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%53 snaps
77Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%53 snaps
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%53 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%53 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
89Amari CooperWR · Full-time96%51 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Full-time91%48 snaps
82Jordy NelsonWR · Full-time89%47 snaps
10Seth RobertsWR · Heavy rotation53%28 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Heavy rotation51%27 snaps
24Marshawn LynchRB · Rotational40%21 snaps
12Martavis BryantWR · Rotational25%13 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational17%9 snaps
86Lee SmithTE · Situational15%8 snaps
41Keith SmithFB · Situational13%7 snaps
28Doug MartinRB · Situational11%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Nick NelsonCBKelechi OsemeleGMatt McCraneKShilique CalhounOLBAJ McCarronQBDeAndre WashingtonRBKarl JosephSSIan SilbermanTBrandon LaFellWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-M.Lee].
Q2 4:14 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LV 44 · gained 44 · +4.15 EP · +13.5% win probability
147 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 96 yards from the LAC 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.3566%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.1778%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.3125%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1557%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.4767%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.340%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+1.3180%
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
Raiders0Chargers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Raiders 25
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 43
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Raiders 44
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Chargers 7
2nd quarter58 plays
Raiders3Chargers3
Field goal6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chargers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 18
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Raiders 17
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Raiders3Chargers9
Raiders3Chargers10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 45 to the Raiders 44
Fumble lost2 plays
Raiders3Chargers16
Raiders3Chargers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Raiders 1
No good9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 39
No good4 plays, from the Chargers 47 to the Raiders 30
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays
Raiders3Chargers20
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Raiders 12
Intercepted12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chargers 1
The period ended3 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Raiders 48
4th quarter38 plays
Raiders3Chargers26
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Raiders 13
Raiders9Chargers26
Raiders10Chargers26
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Chargers 1
The period ended16 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Raiders 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
