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Buffalo Bills 13, Titans 12 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 4th and 5, on Stephen Hauschka — 47.8 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 4th and 5
Stephen Hauschka
Bills
(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Titans closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Buffalo Bills 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Bills +47.8% win probability on one snap.
47.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dion LewisBillsQ3 5:53(5:53) 33-D.Lewis left guard to TEN 49 for 1 yard (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at TEN 49. 21-J.Poyer to TEN 49 for no gain (64-J.Kline).
18.2pts
Adoree' JacksonTitansQ4 8:03(8:03) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 18-A.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Jackson [58-H.Landry] at TEN 39. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 46 for 7 yards (11-Z.Jones). Interception followed coverage and tip at TEN 42.
17.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Titans at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 4 of 13 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Titans at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Titans145 of 156 plays carry both curves
(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Swing +47.8 for BillsExpected points +0.77 for BillsThe model had Bills 4 points higher than the market did.play 155
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03BUF +48% win prob(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
3rd · 5:53TEN +18% win prob(5:53) 33-D.Lewis left guard to TEN 49 for 1 yard (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at TEN 49. 21-J.Poyer to TEN 49 for no gain (64-J.Kline).
4th · 8:03TEN +17% win prob(8:03) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 18-A.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Jackson [58-H.Landry] at TEN 39. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 46 for 7 yards (11-Z.Jones). Interception followed coverage and tip at TEN 42.
4th · 1:45BUF +12% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-R.McCloud to TEN 33 for 7 yards (98-B.Orakpo). Screen pass, caught at TEN 44. Key block: D.Dawkins.
2nd · 4:14BUF +11% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to TEN 22 for 11 yards (38-R.Lewis). Caught at TEN 19, slanting from right. Measurement = first down. Buffalo challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
1st · 14:38TEN +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Hauschka's 46-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
1st1:39Ryan Succop·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–7
2nd0:03Ryan Succop·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+36–7
3rd2:03Stephen Hauschka·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+36–10
4th10:34Ryan Succop·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+39–10
4th4:47Ryan Succop·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+312–10
4th0:03Stephen Hauschka·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.FergusonLead never changed again+312–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryBills
Titans3–6Bills
221Total yards223
4.2Yards per play3.5
40%Success rate41%
50%Third-down rate31%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays3
14First downs16
2Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Titans: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.17Bills: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.23Titans: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.43Bills: −0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.32Titans: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 53 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Bills’s 64 at 36%. Red-zone trips: Titans 1, Bills 3.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
BUF's pass rate over expected, −24.1 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 8.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −4.1 pts in week 1.
2.9 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.8-swing turn from week 4.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's early-down pass rate, 22.9%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 5 — 6.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 42.9% in week 3.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 4.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.6 points.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 4 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.4 points.
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 40.0% in week 4 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 16.0 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.1 pts in week 4 against −8.0 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 14 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Bills16.7%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -24.1 pts, 19.8 points below their season mean of -4.3 pts and 2.9 times their own 6.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 9 never used
64Josh KlineG · Every snap100%54 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%54 snaps
67Quinton SpainG · Every snap100%54 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%54 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Every snap100%54 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Full-time91%49 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation78%42 snaps
69Tyler MarzOT · Heavy rotation69%37 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Heavy rotation63%34 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Heavy rotation61%33 snaps
88Luke StockerTE · Heavy rotation59%32 snaps
13Taywan TaylorWR · Rotational46%25 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Rotational39%21 snaps
14Nick WilliamsWR · Rotational35%19 snaps
77Taylor LewanT · Rotational31%17 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Situational15%8 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Situational13%7 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Matt DickersonDEAaron StinnieGWill ComptonILBWesley WoodyardILBDennis KellyOTBlaine GabbertQBAustin DavisQBDalyn DawkinsRBKenny VaccaroSS
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Stephen Hauschka+44% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q4 0:03 · Bills · 4th & 5 at TEN 28 · gained nothing · +0.77 EP · +44.3% win probability
143 snaps placed · 17 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 54 yards from the TEN 25 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
38%
Yards
444
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.2259%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.3648%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.3941%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0729%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1714%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 38
Titans0Bills6
Titans0Bills7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Titans 14
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Titans 47
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 26
Titans3Bills7
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 37
2nd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Titans 40
Intercepted5 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 38
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Titans 12
Titans6Bills7
Field goal14 plays, from the Titans 12 to the Bills 26
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 41
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 5 to the Titans 16
Punt4 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 48
Titans6Bills10
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 49 to the Titans 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 36
4th quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Titans9Bills10
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Bills 21
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 40
Titans12Bills10
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Bills 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Titans12Bills13
Field goal15 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Titans 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -6
Closing total
38
Titans moneyline
-269
Bills moneyline
+238
Titans closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 25 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 67°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Titans 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Sean McDermott
(14:38) (No Huddle) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 13-T.Taylor to TEN 43 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds). FUMBLES (49-T.Edmunds), RECOVERED by BUF-58-M.Milano at TEN 47.
4th · 14:17BUF +11% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe to BUF 38 for 13 yards (24-T.Johnson). Stop pattern, caught at BUF 39.
4th · 0:17TEN +10% win prob(:17) 17-J.Allen left guard to TEN 28 for -3 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
