2018 Week 5 · Sun, Oct 7, 2018 · New Era Field

Tennessee Titans

Buffalo BillsWinner

TEN -6 upsetU 38 ✓Titans closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, BUF +48% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03TEN — BUF BUF ball · 4th & 5BUF 52%

(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03BUF +48% win prob(:03) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.
Q3 · 5:53TEN +18% win prob(5:53) 33-D.Lewis left guard to TEN 49 for 1 yard (90-S.Lawson). FUMBLES (90-S.Lawson), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at TEN 49. 21-J.Poyer to TEN 49 for no gain (64-J.Kline).
Q4 · 8:03TEN +17% win prob(8:03) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 18-A.Holmes INTERCEPTED by 25-A.Jackson [58-H.Landry] at TEN 39. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 46 for 7 yards (11-Z.Jones). Interception followed coverage and tip at TEN 42.
Q4 · 1:45BUF +12% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-R.McCloud to TEN 33 for 7 yards (98-B.Orakpo). Screen pass, caught at TEN 44. Key block: D.Dawkins.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Bills
Offensive plays	53	64
Total yards	221	223 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2 (edge)	3.5
Expected points added / play	-0.27	-0.17 (edge)
Success rate	40%	41% (edge)
Dropback rate	57%	36%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.43
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.32	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	14	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

14/26, 129 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10/19, 82 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.2 expected points added · -13.3% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

LeSean McCoyRB

24 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

11 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

4/6 for 49 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Tajae SharpeWR

3/4 for 30 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	5	18	0:31	Fumble
2	BUF	TEN 47	12	47	5:26	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 39	5	8	1:08	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 8	6	15	2:53	Punt
5	TEN	BUF 25	7	18	3:27	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 29	9	26	4:14	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 20	4	17	2:44	Interception
8	BUF	TEN 37	9	25	4:34	Turnover on downs
9	TEN	TEN 12	11	57	5:03	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 25	10	21	5:10	Punt
11	TEN	TEN 5	6	8	2:57	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 34	4	0	0:23	Punt
13	TEN	TEN 25	2	24	0:44	Fumble
14	BUF	TEN 49	7	27	3:47	Turnover on downs
15	TEN	TEN 25	15	54	6:29	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 25	6	15	2:39	Interception
17	TEN	TEN 46	7	17	3:08	Turnover on downs
18	BUF	BUF 25	12	47	4:43	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 57 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	14/26	129	0	1	2	-3.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	11	56	5.1	0.7
Dion Lewis	12	34	2.8	-8.0
Marcus Mariota	2	10	5.0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	4	6	49	24%	1.3
Tajae Sharpe	3	4	30	16%	5.1
Taywan Taylor	3	5	30	20%	-5.7
Dion Lewis	3	4	14	16%	-0.6
Darius Jennings	1	1	6	4%	-0.0
Derrick Henry	0	1	0	4%	-0.7
Nick Williams	0	2	0	8%	-5.0
Jonnu Smith	0	1	0	4%	-0.7
Luke Stocker	0	1	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
DaQuan Jones	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jayon Brown	5	2	1.0	0	0
Brian Orakpo	5	1	0.0	0	0
Logan Ryan	4	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	1	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	4	1	0.0	0	0
Austin Johnson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Adoree' Jackson	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jurrell Casey	2	1	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	2	0	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	10/19	82	0	1	1	-8.2
Corey Bojorquez	0/1	0	0	0	0	-3.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
LeSean McCoy	24	85	3.5	0	-2.4
Chris Ivory	14	43	3.1	0	2.6
Josh Allen	4	19	4.8	1	1.4
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	-3	-3.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
LeSean McCoy	2	3	23	15%	1.5
Zay Jones	3	4	20	20%	1.4
Charles Clay	1	1	12	5%	1.2
Kelvin Benjamin	1	5	11	25%	-3.9
Jason Croom	2	2	9	10%	-0.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	7	5%	-0.3
Stephen Hauschka	0	1	0	5%	-3.0
Taiwan Jones	0	1	0	5%	-1.0
Andre Holmes	0	2	0	10%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Matt Milano	7	3	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	3	4	0	1
Lorenzo Alexander	3	1	0	1
Dean Marlowe	3	1	0	1
Taron Johnson	3	0	1	1
Phillip Gaines	2	0	0	0
Ryan Lewis	2	0	0	0
Jordan Phillips	0	2	0	1
Zay Jones	1	0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -6
Closing total: 38
TEN moneyline: -269
BUF moneyline: +238

Titans closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 38; the game landed 25 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: TEN 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Sean McDermott