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Washington Commanders 19 at New Orleans Saints 43. Final.
Saints -5.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 5
New Orleans Saints 43, Commanders 19 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:10, 3rd and 15, on Chris Thompson — 6.8 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:10 · 3rd and 15
Chris Thompson
Commanders
(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at NO 30 for 17 yards (29-K.Coleman). Pass 5, YAC 12
Dome
Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 24.
New Orleans Saints 43–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:10, Commanders +6.8% win probability on one snap.
6.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mark IngramSaintsQ1 11:33(11:33) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram pushed ob at WAS 2 for 28 yards (36-D.Swearinger). Pass -5, YAC 33
6.1pts
Paul RichardsonCommandersQ1 4:45(4:45) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-P.Richardson to NO 5 for 23 yards (24-V.Bell). NO-53-A.Klein was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 22, YAC 1
6.5pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.67 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.37 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 8 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 13 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Saintshigher on Commanders155 of 165 plays carry both curves
(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at NO 30 for 17 yards (29-K.Coleman). Pass 5, YAC 12
Swing −6.8 for SaintsExpected points −3.13 for SaintsThe model had Commanders 9 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:10NO +7% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at NO 30 for 17 yards (29-K.Coleman). Pass 5, YAC 12
1st · 4:45NO +6% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-P.Richardson to NO 5 for 23 yards (24-V.Bell). NO-53-A.Klein was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 22, YAC 1
1st · 11:33NO +6% win prob(11:33) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram pushed ob at WAS 2 for 28 yards (36-D.Swearinger). Pass -5, YAC 33
2nd · 5:53NO +5% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 81-C.Meredith to WAS 8 for 46 yards (31-F.Moreau; 53-Z.Brown). Pass 26, YAC 20
1st · 12:43NO +4% win prob(12:43) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 13-M.Thomas to WAS 33 for 20 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
2nd · 12:30NO +4% win prob(12:30) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 13-M.Thomas to WAS 11 for 31 yards (54-M.Foster; 36-D.Swearinger). Pass 12, YAC 19
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mark Ingram's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 10:45 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:45Mark Ingram·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+60–6
1st2:42Dustin Hopkins·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–6
4th14:15Wil Lutz·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+313–43
4th10:29Kapri Bibbs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+619–43
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categorySaints
Commanders0–9Saints
283Total yards451
4.6Yards per play7.5
41%Success rate55%
31%Third-down rate63%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays7
19First downs24
3Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.15Commanders: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.37Saints: +0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Commanders: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.67Saints: +0.67 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Commanders: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.02Saints: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 61 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Saints’s 60 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 4, Saints 7.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.9 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Saints9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.0 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.96× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 46.1 points above their season mean of 28.9% and 1.6 times their own 29.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Saints→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Smith pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at NO 30 for 17 yards (29-K.Coleman). Pass 5, YAC 12
Q1 6:10 · Commanders · 3rd & 15 at NO 47 · gained 17 · +3.13 EP · +9.2% win probability
153 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 75 yards from the NO 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
43%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.1571%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3978%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.5718%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3986%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1029%
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.1917%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
Commanders0Saints6
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 36 to the Commanders 2
Commanders3Saints6
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 42
2nd quarter58 plays
Commanders3Saints12
Commanders3Saints13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Saints 47 to the Commanders 1
Commanders6Saints13
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 35
Commanders6Saints19
Commanders6Saints20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Commanders 1
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 25
Commanders6Saints26
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 47
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Saints 17 to the Saints 37
Commanders12Saints26
Commanders13Saints26
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Commanders13Saints32
Commanders13Saints33
Touchdown7 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Commanders 35
Intercepted10 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the Saints 31
Commanders13Saints39
Commanders13Saints40
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 4 to the Commanders 1
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 22
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 30
4th quarter31 plays
Commanders13Saints43
Field goal3 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Commanders 26
Commanders19Saints43
Touchdown10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Saints 1
The period ended18 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Commanders 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -5.5
Closing total
51.5
Commanders moneyline
+222
Saints moneyline
-250
Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 62 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Commanders 15 days · Saints 8 days
Coaches
Jay Gruden vs Sean Payton
2nd · 3:47NO +3% win prob(3:47) 74-J.Bushrod reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:32NO +3% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 41 for -8 yards (91-R.Kerrigan). PENALTY on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NO 41.
