2018 Week 5 · Mon, Oct 8, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Washington Commanders

New Orleans SaintsWinner

NO -5.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 24.

New Orleans Saints 43–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:10, NO +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:10WAS — NO WAS ball · 3rd & 15NO 84%

(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at NO 30 for 17 yards (29-K.Coleman). Pass 5, YAC 12

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:10NO +7% win prob(6:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson pushed ob at NO 30 for 17 yards (29-K.Coleman). Pass 5, YAC 12
Q1 · 4:45NO +6% win prob(4:45) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-P.Richardson to NO 5 for 23 yards (24-V.Bell). NO-53-A.Klein was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 22, YAC 1
Q1 · 11:33NO +6% win prob(11:33) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 22-M.Ingram pushed ob at WAS 2 for 28 yards (36-D.Swearinger). Pass -5, YAC 33
Q2 · 5:53NO +5% win prob(5:53) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 81-C.Meredith to WAS 8 for 46 yards (31-F.Moreau; 53-Z.Brown). Pass 26, YAC 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Saints
Offensive plays	61	60
Total yards	283	451 (edge)
Yards per play	4.6	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.15	0.37 (edge)
Success rate	41%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.67 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.06 (edge)	0.02
Third downs	4/13	5/8 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs -0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

26/29, 363 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

24.5 expected points added · +15.2% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

23/39, 275 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-10.3 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

16 att, 53 yds, 2 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

6 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

3/3 for 111 yds, 2 TD

10% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

4/5 for 74 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	7	1:06	Punt
2	NO	NO 36	7	59	3:13	Touchdown
3	WAS	WAS 25	16	56	8:04	Turnover on downs
4	NO	NO 25	15	58	6:59	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 25	7	40	2:02	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	12	85	4:53	Touchdown
7	WAS	WAS 22	5	3	0:57	Punt
8	NO	NO 38	2	62	0:10	Touchdown
9	WAS	WAS 30	6	17	0:49	Punt
10	NO	NO 17	5	22	0:25	Fumble
11	WAS	NO 16	4	16	0:56	Touchdown
12	NO	NO 25	2	0	0:26	End of half
13	NO	NO 26	7	74	2:37	Touchdown
14	WAS	WAS 40	10	29	4:40	Interception
15	NO	WAS 4	3	8	1:00	Touchdown
16	WAS	WAS 25	13	40	4:24	Fumble
17	NO	WAS 48	6	22	3:09	Turnover on downs
18	WAS	WAS 25	9	75	3:45	Touchdown
19	NO	NO 22	16	61	10:25	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 85 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	23/39	275	0	1	3	-10.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Chris Thompson	8	17	2.1	0	-2.6
Kapri Bibbs	4	9	2.3	1	0.5
Alex Smith	2	7	3.5	1	4.3
Adrian Peterson	4	6	1.5	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	4	7	55	19%	2.6
Paul Richardson	4	5	50	14%	2.5
Maurice Harris	3	8	47	22%	-8.4
Chris Thompson	6	8	45	22%	0.4
Adrian Peterson	2	3	36	8%	1.4
Jordan Reed	1	2	21	5%	0.1
Vernon Davis	2	3	15	8%	1.3
Brian Quick	1	1	6	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mason Foster	6	4	0.0	0
Quinton Dunbar	5	1	0.0	1
Zach Brown	4	2	0.0	0
D.J. Swearinger	4	1	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	2	0.0	0
Preston Smith	2	2	0.0	0
Daron Payne	3	1	1.0	0
Matt Ioannidis	1	2	0.0	0
Ryan Anderson	1	2	0.0	0
Montae Nicholson	2	1	0.0	0

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	26/29	363	3	0	2	24.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	16	53	3.3	2	0.4
Alvin Kamara	6	24	4.0	0	-1.6
Taysom Hill	5	23	4.6	1	1.7
Drew Brees	2	1	0.5	0	2.0
Teddy Bridgewater	3	-3	-1.0	0	-4.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tre'Quan Smith	3	3	111	2	10%	8.3
Michael Thomas	4	5	74	0	17%	4.8
Cameron Meredith	5	5	71	0	17%	-0.5
Benjamin Watson	4	4	30	0	14%	3.2
Josh Hill	2	2	24	1	7%	2.2
Mark Ingram	2	3	20	0	10%	0.5
Austin Carr	2	2	17	0	7%	1.3
Alvin Kamara	3	4	15	0	14%	0.0
Drew Brees	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Vonn Bell	7	1	0.0	0	1
Demario Davis	5	1	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	3	3	0.0	0	1
Justin Hardee	4	0	0.0	1	2
Ken Crawley	3	0	0.0	0	0
David Onyemata	3	0	0.0	0	0
Marcus Davenport	2	1	1.0	0	1
Kurt Coleman	3	0	0.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	2	0	1.0	0	0
Craig Robertson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -5.5
Closing total: 51.5
WAS moneyline: +222
NO moneyline: -250

Saints closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 62 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: WAS 15 days · NO 8 days
Coaches: Jay Gruden vs Sean Payton