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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
CardinalsArizona17
BY 10final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
Arizona Cardinals 17 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Vikings -10 pushO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
Minnesota Vikings 27, Cardinals 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 4:24, 3rd and 9, on Kirk Cousins — 14.0 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:24 · 3rd and 9
Kirk Cousins
Cardinals
(4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 29 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at MIN 36. 36-B.Baker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Vikings closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Minnesota Vikings 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 4:24, Cardinals +14.0% win probability on one snap.
14.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsCardinalsQ1 11:17(11:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Cousins to ARI 43 for -1 yards (36-B.Baker).
8.1pts
Christian KirkCardinalsQ1 9:44(9:44) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at MIN 11 for 35 yards (22-H.Smith).
8.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Vikings won this one — 5 of 14 on third down, against Cardinals at 0 of 10 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.14 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Vikings won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Cardinals166 of 175 plays carry both curves
(4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 29 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at MIN 36. 36-B.Baker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.0 for VikingsExpected points −7.54 for VikingsThe model had Cardinals 12 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:24ARI +14% win prob(4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 29 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at MIN 36. 36-B.Baker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:44MIN +8% win prob(9:44) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at MIN 11 for 35 yards (22-H.Smith).
1st · 11:17ARI +8% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Cousins to ARI 43 for -1 yards (36-B.Baker).
2nd · 12:07ARI +8% win prob(12:07) 31-D.Johnson left guard to MIN 1 for no gain (29-X.Rhodes). MIN-91-S.Weatherly was injured during the play.
2nd · 1:54MIN +5% win prob(1:54) 6-M.Wile punts 51 yards to ARI 5, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-42-B.Gedeon. PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at ARI 5.
2nd · 14:25ARI +5% win prob(14:25) 8-K.Cousins pass short right INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Boston at MIN 47. 33-T.Boston to MIN 47 for no gain (14-S.Diggs). ARI-33-T.Boston was injured during the play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dan Bailey's 48-yard field goal with 0:12 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:22Phil Dawson·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–0
Vikings ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Cardinals: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.14Vikings: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.34Cardinals: −0.34 expected points added per play
−0.34Vikings: −0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.53Cardinals: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.11Vikings: +0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 55 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Vikings’s 68 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 5 against 50.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Vikings17.1%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.30× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 28.8 points above their season mean of 21.3% and 1.2 times their own 24.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 29 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at MIN 36. 36-B.Baker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:24 · Vikings · 3rd & 9 at MIN 36 · gained nothing · -7.54 EP · −18.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.22
Success rate
36%
Yards
679
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.2569%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.2377%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0925%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8-0.0338%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.6080%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.4340%
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 23
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 31 to the Cardinals 42
Cardinals3Vikings0
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Vikings 8
Cardinals3Vikings6
Cardinals3Vikings7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 21
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Cardinals3Vikings10
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 17
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 29
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 1 to the Vikings 8
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to midfield
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Cardinals9Vikings10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Vikings 38
Cardinals10Vikings10
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 46
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 3 to the Cardinals 11
Cardinals10Vikings13
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Cardinals 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Cardinals10Vikings19
Cardinals10Vikings20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Cardinals 13
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 10
Cardinals10Vikings26
Cardinals10Vikings27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Cardinals 7
Intercepted8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Vikings 49
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Cardinals 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 42
4th quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Vikings 32
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 42
Cardinals16Vikings27
Cardinals17Vikings27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 19 to the Vikings 25
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Vikings 43
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Cardinals 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -10
Closing total
43.5
Cardinals moneyline
+350
Vikings moneyline
-405
Vikings closed -10 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 44 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Steve Wilks vs Mike Zimmer
1st · 5:33ARI +5% win prob(5:33) 31-D.Johnson left end to ARI 30 for 5 yards (55-A.Barr). FUMBLES (55-A.Barr), RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at ARI 31. 96-T.Johnson to ARI 31 for no gain (85-G.Holmes).
2nd · 14:19MIN +5% win prob(14:19) 3-J.Rosen pass deep left to 86-R.Seals-Jones to MIN 7 for 40 yards (23-G.Iloka).
Cardinalscategory by categoryVikings
Cardinals3
Vikings0
