2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Nissan Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Tennessee Titans

BAL -2.5 ✓U 43.5 ✓Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Baltimore Ravens 21–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:32, TEN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:32BAL — TEN BAL ball · 3rd & 4BAL 71%

(1:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:32TEN +7% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:47TEN +6% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen pushed ob at BAL 38 for 11 yards (53-D.Bates; 26-L.Ryan).
Q1 · 12:01BAL +6% win prob(12:01) 8-M.Mariota sacked at BAL 43 for -6 yards (93-C.Wormley).
Q1 · 2:59TEN +5% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree pushed ob at TEN 4 for 27 yards (21-M.Butler).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Titans
Offensive plays	71	40
Total yards	362 (edge)	106
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	2.6
Expected points added / play	0.17 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	41% (edge)	23%
Dropback rate	54%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	-0.38
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	12/17 (edge)	1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	6
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	11
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

25/37, 238 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

10.2 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

10/15, 117 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-11.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

19 att, 54 yds, 2 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Gus EdwardsRB

10 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Michael CrabtreeWR

6/9 for 93 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Willie SneadWR

7/10 for 60 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 1.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	9	20	4:24	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 6	18	89	9:09	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 23	5	0	1:38	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 48	8	52	2:53	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	9	43	4:50	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 13	4	4	1:25	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 35	4	-8	1:29	Punt
8	BAL	BAL 16	8	33	3:15	Interception
9	TEN	TEN 23	5	14	0:40	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 44	3	14	0:17	End of half
11	BAL	BAL 22	14	93	7:20	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 25	5	-3	1:53	Punt
13	BAL	50	4	3	0:56	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 2	8	46	4:07	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 15	6	21	2:00	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 28	4	-1	1:03	Punt
17	BAL	BAL 21	10	42	7:06	Punt
18	TEN	TEN 11	4	-5	2:22	Punt
19	BAL	TEN 36	5	11	3:13	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 93 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	25/37	238	1	1	0	10.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	19	54	2.8	2	-1.0
Gus Edwards	10	42	4.2	0	1.7
Lamar Jackson	1	22	22.0	0	2.4
Joe Flacco	3	4	1.3	0	-3.2
Javorius Allen	1	1	1.0	0	-0.6
Hayden Hurst	1	0	0.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Crabtree	6	9	93	1	24%	7.0
Willie Snead	7	10	60	0	27%	1.3
John Brown	2	3	28	0	8%	2.2
Mark Andrews	2	4	20	0	11%	-1.6
Javorius Allen	3	3	18	0	8%	3.3
Chris Moore	3	3	12	0	8%	0.2
Nick Boyle	2	4	7	0	11%	-1.3
Hayden Hurst	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Za'Darius Smith	3	1	3.0
Patrick Onwuasor	3	1	2.0
C.J. Mosley	3	1	0.0
Matt Judon	3	0	1.0
Terrell Suggs	2	1	1.0
Eric Weddle	1	2	0.0
Brandon Carr	3	0	0.0
Tony Jefferson	2	1	1.0
Michael Pierce	1	1	0.0
Kenny Young	1	1	1.0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	10/15	117	0	0	11	-11.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marcus Mariota	2	25	12.5	1.0
Derrick Henry	7	21	3.0	-2.1
Dion Lewis	5	9	1.8	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Tajae Sharpe	2	2	33	14%	2.6
Anthony Firkser	2	2	25	14%	2.3
Corey Davis	1	4	24	29%	0.5
Taywan Taylor	1	2	13	14%	-0.7
Jonnu Smith	1	1	12	7%	1.2
Derrick Henry	1	1	5	7%	0.3
Dion Lewis	2	2	5	14%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Adoree' Jackson	8	0	0	0
Jayon Brown	3	3	0	0
Rashaan Evans	4	2	0	0
Kendrick Lewis	3	3	0	0
Kevin Byard	4	1	1	1
Jurrell Casey	3	2	0	0
Daren Bates	4	1	0	0
Logan Ryan	3	2	0	1
Malcolm Butler	4	0	0	1
Kamalei Correa	2	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 43.5
BAL moneyline: -137
TEN moneyline: +124

Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 21 — under by 22.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: BAL 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Vrabel