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Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Ravens148 of 157 plays carry both curves
(1:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.3 for TitansExpected points −2.55 for TitansThe model had Titans 10 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:32TEN +7% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 15-M.Crabtree for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:47TEN +6% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen pushed ob at BAL 38 for 11 yards (53-D.Bates; 26-L.Ryan).
1st · 12:01BAL +6% win prob(12:01) 8-M.Mariota sacked at BAL 43 for -6 yards (93-C.Wormley).
1st · 2:59TEN +5% win prob(2:59) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 15-M.Crabtree pushed ob at TEN 4 for 27 yards (21-M.Butler).
1st · 5:07TEN +5% win prob(5:07) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 37-J.Allen pushed ob at TEN 39 for 6 yards (53-D.Bates).
1st · 13:00TEN +4% win prob(13:00) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry right guard to BAL 48 for -2 yards (23-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on BAL-93-C.Wormley, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Crabtree's 4-yard touchdown catch with 1:32 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:32Michael Crabtree·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Flaccofrom Joe FlaccoLead never changed again+77–0
Ravens ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.36Titans: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Ravens: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.38Titans: −0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.32Titans: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 71 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Titans’s 40 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Titans 0.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's sack or hit rate, 39.3%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 4.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 21.6% in week 3.
2.6 times their own weekly swing above their number.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
TEN's sack or hit rate, 2.6%, is past their previous low of 6.9% in week 1 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
off script — got home · +23.2 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+2.59× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Titans2.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.8 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 39.3%, 23.2 points above their season mean of 16.1% and 2.6 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:01) 8-M.Mariota sacked at BAL 43 for -6 yards (93-C.Wormley).
Q1 12:01 · Titans · 2nd & 6 at BAL 37 · lost 6 · -1.86 EP · −9.8% win probability
146 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
33%
Yards
467
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.4353%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.4080%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.2471%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.1050%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.2450%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.6920%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Ravens 37
Ravens6Titans0
Ravens7Titans0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Titans 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 30
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt1 play
Ravens13Titans0
Ravens14Titans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Titans 13
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Ravens 37
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 13 to the Ravens 17
Punt4 plays
Intercepted9 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 49
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Titans 42
3rd quarter36 plays
Ravens20Titans0
Ravens21Titans0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Titans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 29
Punt4 plays, from midfield to the Titans 47
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 2 to the Ravens 49
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter32 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 36
Punt4 plays
Punt13 plays, from the Ravens 21 to midfield
Punt4 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Titans 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
