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Houston Texans 20, Bills 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:30, 2nd and 10, on Johnathan Joseph — 41.4 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:30 · 2nd and 10
Johnathan Joseph
Texans
(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Dome
Texans closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:30, Texans +41.4% win probability on one snap.
41.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Zay JonesBillsQ4 13:07(13:07) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass deep right to 11-Z.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.6pts
Deshaun WatsonTexansQ4 2:06(2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 15-W.Fuller [99-H.Phillips]. PENALTY on BUF-28-P.Gaines, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Holding, declined.
23.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Texans at 3 of 13 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Texans at 3 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills owned this one and still lost it — -0.28 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bills owned this one and still lost it — -0.26 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.40 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
Andre HolmesBillsWR1 of 2 for 20+2.89 expected points on 2 touches
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Bills158 of 165 plays carry both curves
(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing +41.4 for TexansExpected points +7.87 for TexansThe model had Bills 6 points higher than the market did.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:30BUF +41% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 2:06HOU +23% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 15-W.Fuller [99-H.Phillips]. PENALTY on BUF-28-P.Gaines, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Holding, declined.
4th · 13:07HOU +19% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass deep right to 11-Z.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:52HOU +15% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 44 for 24 yards (21-J.Poyer).
4th · 6:58HOU +13% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass deep left to 18-A.Holmes to BUF 33 for 20 yards (20-J.Reid, 55-B.McKinney).
3rd · 0:53BUF +13% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 30 for -4 yards (sack split by 93-T.Murphy and 55-J.Hughes). FUMBLES (93-T.Murphy) [93-T.Murphy], RECOVERED by BUF-99-H.Phillips at HOU 32. 99-H.Phillips to HOU 32 for no gain (66-N.Martin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Johnathan Joseph's 28-yard touchdown with 1:30 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Bills ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Bills: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.40Texans: −0.40 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.28Bills: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.51Texans: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.23Bills: −0.23 expected points added per play
−0.24Texans: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 58 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Texans’s 56 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Texans 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 5 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.4 points.
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 22.9% in week 5 against 53.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
off script — got home · +19.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+2.10× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Texans11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −2.4 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.3%, 19.4 points above their season mean of 15.9% and 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
53 dressed · 9 never used
76John MillerG · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Dion DawkinsT · Every snap100%62 snaps
79Jordan MillsT · Every snap100%62 snaps
66Russell BodineC · Every snap100%62 snaps
11Zay JonesWR · Full-time94%58 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
—Vlad DucasseG · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
13Kelvin BenjaminWR · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
85Charles ClayTE · Heavy rotation71%44 snaps
17Josh AllenQB · Heavy rotation61%38 snaps
18Andre HolmesWR · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
2Nathan PetermanQB · Rotational39%24 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Rotational29%18 snaps
72Ryan GroyG · Rotational29%18 snaps
80Jason CroomTE · Rotational26%16 snaps
33Chris IvoryRB · Rotational26%16 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational23%14 snaps
42Patrick DiMarcoFB · Situational19%12 snaps
74Jeremiah SirlesT · Situational10%6 snaps
16Robert FosterWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Ryan LewisCBDontae JohnsonCBWyatt TellerGVladimir DucasseGJulian StanfordILBDerek AndersonQBMarcus MurphyRBIke BoettgerTConor McDermottT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Peterman pass−45% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 1:30 · Bills · 2nd & 10 at BUF 25 · gained nothing · -7.87 EP · −44.9% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 84 yards from the HOU 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.24
Success rate
33%
Yards
445
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3665%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.4766%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.5553%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.0530%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1671%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Texans 36
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Texans 26
Bills0Texans6
Bills0Texans7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 13
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 22
2nd quarter34 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 41
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Bills 47
Bills0Texans10
Field goal4 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Bills 14
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 33
Intercepted10 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Bills 17
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 35
Bills3Texans10
Field goal9 plays, from the Texans 30 to the Texans 4
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 48
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 10 to the Bills 17
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 31 to the Texans 34
Bills6Texans10
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 21 to the Texans 34
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bills12Texans10
Bills13Texans10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Texans 13
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 47
Punt14 plays, from the Bills 7 to the Bills 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills13Texans13
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Bills 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Bills13Texans19
Touchdown3 plays
Bills13Texans20
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 13 to the Bills 30
The period ended1 play
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -10.5
Closing total
40.5
Bills moneyline
+376
Texans moneyline
-439
Texans closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bills 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Sean McDermott vs Bill O'Brien
4th · 1:44BUF +11% win prob(1:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 84-R.Griffin (58-M.Milano).
1st · 7:48HOU +11% win prob(7:48) 8-T.Daniel punts 38 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by HOU-57-B.Scarlett at BUF 29. 57-B.Scarlett to BUF 29 for no gain (18-A.Holmes).
Billscategory by categoryTexans
Bills0
Texans6
