2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -10.5 no coverU 40.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Houston Texans 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 1:30, BUF +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:30BUF — HOU BUF ball · 2nd & 10HOU 53%

(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:30BUF +41% win prob(1:30) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left intended for 13-K.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Joseph at BUF 28. 24-J.Joseph for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 · 2:06HOU +23% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 15-W.Fuller [99-H.Phillips]. PENALTY on BUF-28-P.Gaines, Defensive Pass Interference, 41 yards, enforced at BUF 42 - No Play. Penalty on BUF-27-T.White, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q4 · 13:07HOU +19% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass deep right to 11-Z.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 2:52HOU +15% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to HOU 44 for 24 yards (21-J.Poyer).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Texans
Offensive plays	58	56
Total yards	229 (edge)	217
Yards per play	3.9 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	-0.26 (edge)	-0.40
Success rate	28%	30% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.28 (edge)	-0.51
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.23 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	6/15 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	12	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	7
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

15/25, 177 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-17.7 expected points added · -7.0% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

10/17, 84 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -9.1% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

LeSean McCoyRB

16 att, 73 yds, 0 TD

-0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

15 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

DeAndre HopkinsWR

5/6 for 63 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Kelvin BenjaminWR

2/6 for 43 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 22	9	37	3:53	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 5	7	16	3:32	Punt
3	HOU	BUF 29	6	39	2:52	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 23	7	9	3:28	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 20	7	21	2:34	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 34	7	13	3:28	Punt
7	HOU	BUF 21	4	7	1:40	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 25	5	-3	2:44	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 40	10	32	5:10	Interception
10	BUF	BUF 20	1	-3	0:39	End of half
11	HOU	HOU 30	4	5	0:37	Interception
12	BUF	HOU 30	9	26	4:11	Turnover on downs
13	HOU	HOU 25	7	23	2:55	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 10	4	12	2:49	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 31	4	3	0:57	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 21	5	45	1:19	Turnover on downs
17	HOU	HOU 25	4	7	1:26	Fumble
18	BUF	HOU 32	6	32	2:46	Touchdown
19	HOU	HOU 25	6	16	2:33	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 7	10	44	6:32	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 8	9	48	2:21	Turnover on downs
22	BUF	BUF 25	3	0	0:11	Defensive touchdown
23	BUF	BUF 13	6	17	1:00	Interception
24	HOU	BUF 21	0	0	0:23	End of game
25	HOU	BUF 21	1	0	0:23	Turnover on downs

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 48 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	10/17	84	0	0	2	-5.8
Nathan Peterman	6/12	61	1	2	0	-5.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
LeSean McCoy	16	73	4.6	-0.5
Josh Allen	4	20	5.0	1.2
Chris Ivory	6	5	0.8	-4.5
Nathan Peterman	1	2	2.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kelvin Benjamin	2	6	43	0	21%	-7.4
Zay Jones	3	8	35	1	28%	-2.5
LeSean McCoy	3	5	21	0	17%	-1.6
Andre Holmes	1	2	20	0	7%	2.9
Charles Clay	4	5	20	0	17%	0.5
Chris Ivory	1	1	4	0	3%	1.2
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.6
Logan Thomas	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	7	2	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	3	5	0.0	0	1
Phillip Gaines	3	4	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	1	3	0.0	0	0
Lorenzo Alexander	3	1	1.5	1	1
Eddie Yarbrough	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kyle Williams	1	2	2.0	0	0
Jerry Hughes	1	2	1.5	0	0
Micah Hyde	1	2	0.0	0	0
Andre Holmes	2	0	0.0	0	0

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	15/25	177	1	2	7	-17.7
DeAndre Hopkins	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Lamar Miller	15	46	3.1	-3.7
Alfred Blue	7	26	3.7	-1.5
Deshaun Watson	2	2	1.0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	5	6	63	1	23%	3.2
Will Fuller	2	3	33	0	12%	1.5
Keke Coutee	3	5	33	0	19%	-4.0
Lamar Miller	2	3	25	0	12%	2.8
Alfred Blue	2	3	17	0	12%	-1.8
Jordan Akins	1	1	6	0	4%	-0.1
Ryan Griffin	0	5	0	0	19%	-5.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Zach Cunningham	8	4	0.0	0	0
Benardrick McKinney	5	5	1.0	0	0
Johnathan Joseph	5	1	0.0	1	2
Tyrann Mathieu	3	0	0.0	0	1
D.J. Reader	1	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kareem Jackson	3	0	0.0	1	3
Tyrell Adams	1	1	0.0	0	0
Buddy Howell	1	1	0.0	0	0
Shareece Wright	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -10.5
Closing total: 40.5
BUF moneyline: +376
HOU moneyline: -439

Texans closed -10.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 33 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: BUF 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Bill O'Brien