2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · FedExField

Carolina Panthers

Washington CommandersWinner

CAR -1 upsetU 44.5 ✓Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, CAR +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:38CAR — WAS CAR ball · 4th & 5WAS 72%

(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:38CAR +26% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 10:41WAS +13% win prob(10:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 1 yard (51-S.Hamilton, 56-Z.Vigil). FUMBLES (51-S.Hamilton), RECOVERED by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle at CAR 22.
Q4 · 0:42CAR +8% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Funchess.
Q4 · 2:26WAS +7% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 88-G.Olsen to WAS 48 for 18 yards (36-D.Swearinger). .

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Commanders
Offensive plays	59	66
Total yards	353 (edge)	289
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.06 (edge)	-0.04
Success rate	53% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	75%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	3/9	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Panthers outgained Commanders 353–289 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

27/40, 275 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.5 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

21/36, 163 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-7.9 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

17 att, 97 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

9 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Devin FunchessTE

5/8 for 74 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

4/5 for 59 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	7	22	3:25	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 20	4	8	1:09	Punt
3	WAS	CAR 22	2	22	0:06	Touchdown
4	CAR	CAR 25	5	-1	1:04	Punt
5	WAS	WAS 36	13	59	6:14	Touchdown
6	CAR	CAR 18	8	29	3:56	Interception
7	WAS	WAS 28	4	9	2:02	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 24	2	39	0:40	Fumble
9	WAS	WAS 33	10	36	5:54	Turnover on downs
10	CAR	CAR 25	9	75	2:25	Touchdown
11	WAS	WAS 25	8	31	1:41	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 3	4	2	0:28	Punt
13	WAS	CAR 33	4	4	0:39	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 3	1	0	0:17	End of half
15	WAS	WAS 31	10	31	4:20	Turnover on downs
16	CAR	CAR 39	11	42	5:32	Turnover on downs
17	WAS	WAS 20	13	40	7:28	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	CAR 25	11	77	4:08	Touchdown
19	WAS	WAS 25	11	49	5:17	Turnover on downs
20	CAR	CAR 16	13	68	2:41	Turnover on downs
21	WAS	WAS 8	1	0	0:34	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 77 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	27/40	275	2	1	1	8.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Cam Newton	9	43	4.8	1.5
Christian McCaffrey	8	20	2.5	-2.4
D.J. Moore	1	18	18.0	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Devin Funchess	5	8	74	1	22%	4.0
D.J. Moore	4	5	59	0	14%	-2.0
Greg Olsen	4	7	48	0	19%	2.2
Christian McCaffrey	7	8	46	0	22%	0.8
Torrey Smith	5	5	43	1	14%	5.3
Jarius Wright	1	2	3	0	5%	-2.8
Chris Manhertz	1	2	2	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Luke Kuechly	7	2	0.0	0
Mike Adams	4	2	0.0	1
Eric Reid	4	1	0.0	0
James Bradberry	5	0	0.0	1
Thomas Davis	3	2	0.0	2
Captain Munnerlyn	4	1	0.0	1
Shaq Thompson	3	1	1.0	0
Wes Horton	2	1	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	3	0	0.0	2
Mario Addison	3	0	1.0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	21/36	163	2	0	3	-7.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	17	97	5.7	1.8
Alex Smith	6	13	2.2	3.9
Kapri Bibbs	2	11	5.5	0.3
Maurice Harris	1	6	6.0	0.1
Samaje Perine	1	3	3.0	-0.2
Paul Richardson	1	2	2.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Vernon Davis	3	3	48	1	9%	4.6
Jordan Reed	5	9	36	0	27%	-4.2
Paul Richardson	3	5	31	1	15%	4.0
Josh Doctson	3	5	20	0	15%	-0.8
Maurice Harris	3	4	13	0	12%	-0.8
Brian Quick	2	2	12	0	6%	2.0
Kapri Bibbs	1	2	6	0	6%	-1.8
Adrian Peterson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Michael Floyd	0	1	0	0	3%	-2.0
Samaje Perine	1	1	-3	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
D.J. Swearinger	4	3	1.0	0	0
Quinton Dunbar	6	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Norman	4	1	0.0	1	1
Mason Foster	3	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Brown	4	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Harvey-Clemons	3	1	0.0	0	0
Montae Nicholson	1	2	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Ioannidis	2	0	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -1
Closing total: 44.5
CAR moneyline: -115
WAS moneyline: +104

Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 40 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: CAR 7 days · WAS 6 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Jay Gruden