For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Carolina Panthers 17 at Washington Commanders 23. Final.
Panthers -1 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
Washington Commanders 23, Panthers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:38, 4th and 5, on Cam Newton — 26.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:38 · 4th and 5
Cam Newton
Commanders
(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
U 44.5 ✓
Panthers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:38, Commanders +26.4% win probability on one snap.
26.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ1 10:41(10:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 1 yard (51-S.Hamilton, 56-Z.Vigil). FUMBLES (51-S.Hamilton), RECOVERED by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle at CAR 22.
13.4pts
Cam NewtonCommandersQ4 0:42(:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Funchess.
7.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.13 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Panthers160 of 169 plays carry both curves
(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Swing +26.4 for CommandersExpected points +2.55 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 5 points higher than the market did.play 167
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:38CAR +26% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 10:41WAS +13% win prob(10:41) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 22 for 1 yard (51-S.Hamilton, 56-Z.Vigil). FUMBLES (51-S.Hamilton), RECOVERED by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle at CAR 22.
4th · 0:42CAR +8% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Funchess.
4th · 2:26WAS +7% win prob(2:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep middle to 88-G.Olsen to WAS 48 for 18 yards (36-D.Swearinger). .
4th · 1:28WAS +7% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith ran ob at WAS 24 for 9 yards.
2nd · 11:32CAR +7% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 12-D.Moore to WAS 37 for 17 yards (24-J.Norman). FUMBLES (24-J.Norman), RECOVERED by WAS-54-M.Foster at WAS 33. 54-M.Foster to WAS 33 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Vernon Davis's 22-yard touchdown catch with 10:26 left in the 1st put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:26Vernon Davis·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex SmithLead never changed again+70–7
1st3:07Paul Richardson·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex Smith+70–14
2nd5:35Dustin Hopkins·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+30–17
2nd3:11Devin Funchess·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Cam Newtonfrom Cam Newton · kick no good, wide left+66–17
3rd5:12Graham Gano·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+39–17
4th12:46Dustin Hopkins·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+39–20
4th3:18Dustin Hopkins·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+317–23
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryCommanders
Panthers5–3Commanders
353Total yards289
6.0Yards per play4.4
53%Success rate42%
33%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays6
24First downs17
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Panthers: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Commanders: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Panthers: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.16Commanders: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Panthers: −0.13 expected points added per play
+0.18Commanders: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 59 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Commanders’s 66 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Commanders 3.
NotePanthers outgained Commanders 353-289 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate, 4.5%, is past their previous low of 9.4% in week 5 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Commanders4.5%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.96× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 4.5%, 10.7 points below their season mean of 15.3% and 2.0 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 13-J.Wright. PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 8 yards, enforced between downs.
Q4 0:38 · Panthers · 4th & 5 at WAS 16 · gained nothing · -2.55 EP · −20.5% win probability
158 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 75 yards from the CAR 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0576%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2463%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0644%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3857%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+1.1086%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 47
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 28
Panthers0Commanders6
Panthers0Commanders7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Panthers0Commanders13
Panthers0Commanders14
Touchdown15 plays, from the Commanders 36 to the Panthers 2
The period ended7 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Commanders 47
2nd quarter50 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 31
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Panthers 46
Panthers0Commanders17
Field goal10 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Panthers 31
Panthers6Commanders17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 23
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Panthers 41
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 3 to the Panthers 5
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Panthers 38
Panthers9Commanders17
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 39 to the Commanders 14
The period ended12 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Panthers 43
4th quarter43 plays
Panthers9Commanders20
Field goal5 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Panthers 38
Panthers15Commanders20
Panthers17Commanders20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Commanders 3
Panthers17Commanders23
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Panthers 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Commanders 16
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
