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2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BearsChicago28
BY 3final margin
DolphinsMiami31
Chicago Bears 28 at Miami Dolphins 31. Final.
Bears -7.5 upsetO 40.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
Miami Dolphins 31, Bears 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 8:47, 3rd and 11, on Kenny Stills — 35.8 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 8:47 · 3rd and 11
Kenny Stills
Dolphins
(8:47) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills to CHI 41 for 35 yards (38-A.Amos).
Bears closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Miami Dolphins 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:47, Dolphins +35.8% win probability on one snap.
35.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tarik CohenDolphinsQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 11 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at CHI 45. 25-X.Howard to CHI 45 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
32.8pts
Jason SandersDolphinsOT 0:03(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
27.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 12 on third down, against Dolphins at 8 of 16 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Dolphins at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 8 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bears181 of 193 plays carry both curves
(8:47) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills to CHI 41 for 35 yards (38-A.Amos).
Swing +35.8 for DolphinsExpected points +3.53 for DolphinsModel and market agree here.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 8:47MIA +36% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills to CHI 41 for 35 yards (38-A.Amos).
4th · 2:00CHI +33% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 11 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at CHI 45. 25-X.Howard to CHI 45 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
Overtime · 0:03MIA +28% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
4th · 3:17MIA +25% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:06CHI +25% win prob(5:06) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake right guard to CHI 1 for no gain (96-A.Hicks). FUMBLES (96-A.Hicks), RECOVERED by CHI-91-E.Goldman at CHI -1. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Overtime · 7:17MIA +24% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Sanders's 47-yard field goal with 0:03 left in overtime put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Overtime0:03Jason Sanders·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap J.DenneyLead never changed again+328–31
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryDolphins
Bears5–3Dolphins
468Total yards543
7.4Yards per play7.2
52%Success rate48%
67%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays8
19First downs22
2Sacks taken0
3Turnovers3
The read
Bears ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Bears: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.21Dolphins: +0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Bears: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.12Dolphins: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 63 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 75 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bears 6, Dolphins 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 8.9%, is past their previous low of 14.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 6.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.01× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Dolphins8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.9%, 5.8 points below their season mean of 14.7% and 1.0 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 8 never used
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%70 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%70 snaps
75Kyle LongOG · Every snap100%70 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Full-time84%59 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Heavy rotation59%41 snaps
68James DanielsC · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation51%36 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Rotational49%34 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Rotational44%31 snaps
64Eric KushOG · Rotational44%31 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational23%16 snaps
11Kevin WhiteWR · Situational23%16 snaps
84Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational11%8 snaps
79Bradley SowellT · Situational10%7 snaps
30Benny CunninghamRB · Situational7%5 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Marcus CooperCBNick WilliamsDTMichael BurtonFBKylie FittsLBRashaad CowardOTChase DanielQBBryan WitzmannTJavon WimsWR
Miami Dolphins
53 dressed · 8 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%78 snaps
62Ted LarsenC · Every snap100%78 snaps
70Ja'Wuan JamesOT · Every snap100%78 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Every snap100%78 snaps
8Brock OsweilerQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
66Travis SwansonC · Every snap100%78 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Full-time96%75 snaps
10Kenny StillsWR · Full-time86%67 snaps
83Nick O'LearyTE · Heavy rotation67%52 snaps
15Albert WilsonWR · Heavy rotation64%50 snaps
32Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation63%49 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Rotational40%31 snaps
21Frank GoreRB · Rotational38%30 snaps
86Mike GesickiTE · Rotational35%27 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Situational6%5 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Bobby McCainCBCameron WakeDECharles HarrisDEMartrell SpaightILBRyan TannehillQBDavid FalesQBKalen BallageRBA.J. DerbyTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
B.Osweiler pass+36% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:17) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:17 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at MIA 25 · gained 75 · +6.20 EP · +35.8% win probability
179 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 84 yards from the MIA 15 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
1010
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR69+0.0459%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1445%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.8175%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 48
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears0Dolphins6
Bears0Dolphins7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Bears 5
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Bears 41
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt14 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Dolphins 44
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 23
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Dolphins 2
Intercepted13 plays, from the Dolphins 1 to the Bears 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Bears6Dolphins7
Bears7Dolphins7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 40
Bears13Dolphins7
Bears14Dolphins7
Touchdown2 plays
Bears14Dolphins10
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Bears20Dolphins10
Bears21Dolphins10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 21
Bears21Dolphins13
Field goal14 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 7
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Dolphins 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Bears21Dolphins19
Bears21Dolphins21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Bears 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bears27Dolphins21
Bears28Dolphins21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Dolphins 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Bears28Dolphins27
Bears28Dolphins28
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 36
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Bears 41
The period ended2 plays
Overtime28 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.4 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bears 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
No good8 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Dolphins 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Bears28Dolphins31
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Bears 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -7.5
Closing total
40.5
Bears moneyline
-287
Dolphins moneyline
+254
Bears closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 59 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 86°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the east; 0.04 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Bears 14 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Adam Gase
(7:17) 21-F.Gore left tackle to CHI 7 for 32 yards (37-B.Callahan, 38-A.Amos). CHI-59-D.Trevathan was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Overtime · 1:15MIA +23% win prob(1:15) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 32-K.Drake to CHI 38 for 15 yards (39-E.Jackson).
4th · 3:23MIA +23% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 17-A.Miller for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
