2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

Chicago Bears

Miami DolphinsWinner

CHI -7.5 upsetO 40.5 ✓Bears closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Miami Dolphins 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 8:47, MIA +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 8:47CHI — MIA MIA ball · 3rd & 11CHI 64%

(8:47) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills to CHI 41 for 35 yards (38-A.Amos).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 8:47MIA +36% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep right to 10-K.Stills to CHI 41 for 35 yards (38-A.Amos).
Q4 · 2:00CHI +33% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 11 yards (47-K.Alonso). FUMBLES (47-K.Alonso), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at CHI 45. 25-X.Howard to CHI 45 for no gain (17-A.Miller).
OT · 0:03MIA +28% win prob(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.
Q4 · 3:17MIA +25% win prob(3:17) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 15-A.Wilson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Dolphins
Offensive plays	63	75
Total yards	468	543 (edge)
Yards per play	7.4 (edge)	7.2
Expected points added / play	0.11 (edge)	0.08
Success rate	52% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	57%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.21
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	8/12 (edge)	8/16
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	8
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Brock OsweilerQB

28/44, 380 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

9.7 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

22/31, 316 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

13.0 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Frank GoreRB

15 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

14 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Albert WilsonWR

6/9 for 155 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Taylor GabrielWR

5/5 for 110 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	7	23	1:49	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 10	4	2	0:54	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 46	8	46	3:39	Touchdown
4	CHI	CHI 25	11	38	6:41	Turnover on downs
5	MIA	MIA 41	5	20	2:09	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 20	12	17	6:07	Punt
7	MIA	MIA 17	4	11	2:23	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 35	6	64	2:49	Fumble
9	MIA	MIA 1	11	54	3:07	Interception
10	CHI	CHI 4	1	3	0:22	End of half
11	CHI	CHI 25	5	43	1:37	Touchdown
12	MIA	MIA 25	6	15	1:50	Interception
13	CHI	MIA 12	2	12	0:05	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 25	9	43	3:38	Turnover on downs
15	CHI	CHI 25	5	75	1:00	Touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 25	12	58	6:25	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 25	6	77	3:12	Interception
18	MIA	MIA 20	7	82	3:05	Touchdown
19	CHI	CHI 25	13	69	5:51	Touchdown
20	MIA	MIA 25	3	75	0:16	Touchdown
21	CHI	CHI 20	4	23	1:09	Fumble
22	MIA	CHI 45	4	4	1:18	Punt
23	CHI	CHI 7	1	0	0:34	Turnover on downs
24	MIA	MIA 25	9	84	5:01	Fumble
25	CHI	CHI 20	7	45	3:04	Turnover on downs
26	MIA	MIA 43	6	28	1:55	Turnover on downs

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	22/31	316	3	1	2	13.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	14	69	4.9	0	-3.8
Mitchell Trubisky	8	47	5.9	0	1.7
Tarik Cohen	5	31	6.2	1	-1.1
Taylor Gabriel	1	9	9.0	0	0.8
Benny Cunningham	3	8	2.7	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Taylor Gabriel	5	5	110	0	17%	7.4
Tarik Cohen	7	9	90	0	30%	0.8
Allen Robinson	5	6	64	1	20%	5.5
Anthony Miller	1	4	29	1	13%	1.9
Trey Burton	4	4	23	1	13%	2.7
Jordan Howard	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Ben Braunecker	0	1	0	0	3%	-5.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	5	7	0	0
Adrian Amos	7	2	0	1
Akiem Hicks	4	4	0	0
Danny Trevathan	2	5	0	0
Bryce Callahan	5	1	0	0
Eddie Jackson	5	1	0	0
Kyle Fuller	4	1	2	2
Leonard Floyd	2	1	0	0
Prince Amukamara	2	0	0	0
Aaron Lynch	1	1	0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Osweiler	28/44	380	3	2	0	9.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	15	101	6.7	3.3
Kenyan Drake	13	57	4.4	-6.4
Brock Osweiler	2	8	4.0	0.7
Albert Wilson	1	-5	-5.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Albert Wilson	6	9	155	2	23%	4.4
Danny Amendola	8	11	59	0	28%	-0.9
Nick O'Leary	4	4	49	1	10%	4.7
Kenny Stills	1	2	35	0	5%	3.7
Jakeem Grant	3	4	32	0	10%	1.6
Kenyan Drake	4	6	21	0	15%	-0.8
Frank Gore	1	1	18	0	3%	1.1
Mike Gesicki	1	2	11	0	5%	-0.1
DeVante Parker	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kiko Alonso	7	2	0.0	0	0
Raekwon McMillan	5	1	0.0	0	0
Cordrea Tankersley	2	3	0.0	0	0
Reshad Jones	3	1	0.0	0	1
Torry McTyer	4	0	0.0	0	0
Robert Quinn	2	2	0.0	0	0
T.J. McDonald	2	1	0.0	1	1
Jonathan Woodard	3	0	1.0	0	0
Andre Branch	1	2	0.0	0	0
Xavien Howard	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -7.5
Closing total: 40.5
CHI moneyline: -287
MIA moneyline: +254

Bears closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 59 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: CHI 14 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Adam Gase