2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

New York JetsWinner

NYJ -2.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

New York Jets 42–34. Biggest swing: Q1 14:55, IND +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:55IND — NYJ IND ball · 2nd & 10NYJ 57%

(14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:55IND +16% win prob(14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:09IND +13% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (21-M.Claiborne) at NYJ 42. 54-A.Williamson to IND 22 for 36 yards (14-Z.Pascal).
Q1 · 12:23NYJ +11% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 16-M.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams].
Q2 · 7:29IND +10% win prob(7:29) 33-R.Turbin up the middle to IND 43 for -1 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), RECOVERED by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins at IND 43. 48-J.Jenkins to IND 43 for no gain (64-M.Glowinski).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Jets
Offensive plays	66	64
Total yards	428 (edge)	377
Yards per play	6.5 (edge)	5.9
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.02 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	68%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.24 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	5/12	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	4	2 (edge)

Colts outgained Jets 428–377 but lost the turnover battle 4–2. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

23/43, 301 yds, 4 TD, 3 INT

-4.5 expected points added · -8.9% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

24/30, 280 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

13.5 expected points added · +14.0% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

12 att, 89 yds, 0 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Bilal PowellRB

16 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Jermaine KearseWR

9/10 for 94 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Eric EbronTE

4/7 for 71 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	3	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown
2	IND	IND 25	7	85	2:32	Touchdown
3	NYJ	NYJ 19	14	69	7:43	Turnover on downs
4	IND	IND 29	5	7	2:13	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 27	3	6	1:33	Interception
6	IND	NYJ 35	8	27	2:22	Turnover on downs
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	2	9	0:10	Fumble
8	IND	NYJ 41	6	28	1:51	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 13	5	17	2:45	Punt
10	IND	IND 35	3	8	1:17	Fumble
11	NYJ	IND 43	9	43	4:47	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 25	3	12	0:41	Interception
13	NYJ	IND 22	4	-3	0:29	Turnover on downs
14	IND	IND 25	5	2	0:43	Punt
15	NYJ	NYJ 28	6	58	0:42	Turnover on downs
16	NYJ	NYJ 28	7	72	2:57	Touchdown
17	IND	IND 25	8	80	3:19	Touchdown
18	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	56	4:51	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 25	15	79	4:01	Touchdown
20	NYJ	NYJ 25	11	33	5:12	Turnover on downs
21	IND	IND 25	6	31	1:41	Interception
22	NYJ	IND 25	4	8	2:04	Turnover on downs
23	IND	IND 25	5	6	0:38	Turnover on downs
24	NYJ	IND 31	6	9	1:58	Turnover on downs
25	IND	IND 37	10	63	1:28	Touchdown
26	NYJ	IND 43	4	0	1:51	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	23/43	301	4	3	0	-4.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Marlon Mack	12	89	7.4	5.3
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	14	4.7	-0.1
Robert Turbin	4	10	2.5	-5.2
Zach Pascal	1	8	8.0	0.5
Andrew Luck	2	7	3.5	-0.5
Eric Ebron	1	-1	-1.0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Eric Ebron	4	7	71	1	17%	6.2
Chester Rogers	4	10	55	1	24%	-4.9
Marcus Johnson	2	3	52	1	7%	5.6
Zach Pascal	5	7	35	0	17%	-1.0
Mo Alie-Cox	1	2	34	0	5%	1.6
Ryan Grant	2	5	24	0	12%	-5.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	2	3	21	0	7%	0.1
Marlon Mack	1	2	4	0	5%	-6.8
Robert Turbin	1	1	3	0	2%	-0.2
Erik Swoope	1	2	2	1	5%	1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Pierre Desir	8	1	0.0	0
Shaquille Leonard	4	4	0.0	0
Mike Mitchell	4	3	0.0	0
Anthony Walker	4	2	0.0	1
Kenny Moore	5	0	0.0	0
Nate Hairston	3	1	0.0	0
Grover Stewart	2	2	0.0	0
Al Woods	1	3	0.0	0
George Odum	2	1	0.0	0
Jabaal Sheard	3	0	1.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	24/30	280	2	1	2	13.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bilal Powell	16	59	3.7	0.1
Isaiah Crowell	13	40	3.1	-4.5
Sam Darnold	6	8	1.3	-3.3
Quincy Enunwa	1	0	0.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jermaine Kearse	9	10	94	0	34%	7.9
Terrelle Pryor	5	6	57	1	21%	4.7
Christopher Herndon	2	2	56	1	7%	4.8
Robbie Chosen	3	5	39	0	17%	-1.6
Neal Sterling	2	2	13	0	7%	1.1
Isaiah Crowell	2	2	12	0	7%	-0.8
Quincy Enunwa	1	1	9	0	3%	-4.3
Bilal Powell	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Darron Lee	6	2	1	1
Marcus Maye	5	0	0	0
Avery Williamson	5	0	1	3
Jamal Adams	3	1	0	3
Parry Nickerson	4	0	0	1
Morris Claiborne	3	1	1	2
Henry Anderson	1	1	0	0
Brandon Copeland	2	0	0	0
Terrence Brooks	2	0	0	0
Sam Darnold	1	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYJ -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
IND moneyline: +131
NYJ moneyline: -145

Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 76 — over by 28.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 60°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: IND 10 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Todd Bowles