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New York Jets 42, Colts 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 14:55, 2nd and 10, on Morris Claiborne — 15.5 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:55 · 2nd and 10
Morris Claiborne
Jets
(14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
New York Jets 42–34. Biggest swing: Q1 14:55, Jets +15.5% win probability on one snap.
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marcus JohnsonColtsQ1 12:23(12:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 16-M.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams].
10.9pts
Avery WilliamsonJetsQ2 2:09(2:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (21-M.Claiborne) at NYJ 42. 54-A.Williamson to IND 22 for 36 yards (14-Z.Pascal).
13.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jets won this one — 2 giveaways, against Colts at 4 giveaways.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jets at 1 touchdown on 7 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Jets won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Jetsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Colts owned this one and still lost it — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
(14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.5 for JetsExpected points +7.11 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:55IND +16% win prob(14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:09IND +13% win prob(2:09) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle intended for 11-R.Grant INTERCEPTED by 54-A.Williamson (21-M.Claiborne) at NYJ 42. 54-A.Williamson to IND 22 for 36 yards (14-Z.Pascal).
1st · 12:23NYJ +11% win prob(12:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 16-M.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams].
2nd · 7:29IND +10% win prob(7:29) 33-R.Turbin up the middle to IND 43 for -1 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams), RECOVERED by NYJ-48-J.Jenkins at IND 43. 48-J.Jenkins to IND 43 for no gain (64-M.Glowinski).
1st · 1:01IND +9% win prob(1:01) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 11-R.Anderson INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Hooker at IND 38. 29-M.Hooker to NYJ 35 for 27 yards (14-S.Darnold).
2nd · 6:04NYJ +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Terrelle Pryor's 7-yard touchdown catch with 2:39 left in the 2nd put New York Jets ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
1st12:23Marcus Johnson·34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+77–7
1st4:35Jason Myers·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+37–10
2nd13:27Adam Vinatieri·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+310–10
2nd11:27Adam Vinatieri·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+313–10
2nd2:39Terrelle Pryor·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+713–17
2nd1:29Jason Myers·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+313–20
2nd0:03Jason Myers·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+313–23
3rd12:10Christopher Herndon·32-yd TD catch32-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+713–30
3rd8:50Eric Ebron·18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+720–30
3rd3:57Jason Myers·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+320–33
4th14:54Erik Swoope·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+727–33
4th9:44Jason Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+327–36
4th5:58Jason Myers·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+327–39
4th3:22Jason Myers·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder L.Edwards · snap T.Hennessy+327–42
4th2:00Chester Rogers·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+734–42
16 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryJets
Colts6–3Jets
428Total yards377
6.5Yards per play5.9
50%Success rate44%
42%Third-down rate43%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays7
22First downs17
0Sacks taken2
4Turnovers2
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.02Jets: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Colts: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.24Jets: +0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Colts: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.21Jets: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 66 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Jets’s 64 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Colts 6, Jets 7.
NoteColts outgained Jets 428-377 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.4 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.84× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jets8.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.27× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 34.7 points below their season mean of 34.7% and 1.3 times their own 26.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
53 dressed · 9 never used
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
12Andrew LuckQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%69 snaps
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time88%61 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation71%49 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
11Ryan GrantWR · Heavy rotation58%40 snaps
16Marcus JohnsonWR · Rotational49%34 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational43%30 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Rotational35%24 snaps
86Erik SwoopeTE · Rotational32%22 snaps
33Robert TurbinRB · Situational19%13 snaps
45Ryan HewittTE · Situational17%12 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Situational17%12 snaps
62Le'Raven ClarkOG · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Arthur MauletCBChris MiltonCBDenico AutryDTMargus HuntDTClayton GeathersFSDenzelle GoodOTJacoby BrissettQBJack DoyleTET.Y. HiltonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Luck pass−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:55 · Colts · 2nd & 10 at IND 25 · gained nothing · -7.11 EP · −16.9% win probability
180 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 75 yards from the IND 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
802
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45-0.2064%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0150%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4418%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4980%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3638%
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR7+0.41100%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.5140%
Colts0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Colts0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Colts0Jets6
Touchdown3 plays
Colts0Jets7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Colts6Jets7
Colts7Jets7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jets 24
Colts7Jets10
Field goal14 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Colts 9
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 29 to the Colts 31
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 30
2nd quarter56 plays
Colts10Jets10
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 1
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts13Jets10
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 13
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 22
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 44
Colts13Jets16
Colts13Jets17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Colts 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 37
Colts13Jets20
Field goal7 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 27
Colts13Jets23
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Colts 14
3rd quarter42 plays
Colts13Jets29
Colts13Jets30
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Colts 32
Colts19Jets30
Colts20Jets30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jets 18
Colts20Jets33
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Colts 19
The period ended16 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Jets 1
4th quarter57 plays
Colts26Jets33
Colts27Jets33
Touchdown3 plays
Colts27Jets36
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Colts 27
Intercepted6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 45
Colts27Jets39
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 17
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 31
Colts27Jets42
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 17
Colts33Jets42
Colts34Jets42
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 37 to the Jets 17
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Jets -2.5
Closing total
47.5
Colts moneyline
+131
Jets moneyline
-145
Jets closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 8.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 76 — over by 28.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Colts 10 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Todd Bowles
(6:04) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to IND 21 for 19 yards (35-P.Desir).
2nd · 2:39NYJ +8% win prob(2:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 16-T.Pryor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:25IND +8% win prob(13:25) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 81-Q.Enunwa to NYJ 34 for 9 yards (53-D.Leonard). FUMBLES (53-D.Leonard), RECOVERED by IND-97-A.Muhammad at NYJ 41. 97-A.Muhammad to NYJ 41 for no gain (61-S.Long).
