2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · AT&T Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Dallas CowboysWinner

JAX -3 upsetO 39.5 ✓DomeJaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Dallas Cowboys 40–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:47, DAL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 11:47JAX — DAL DAL ball · 3rd & 9JAX 58%

(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at JAX 44 for 27 yards (21-A.Bouye). Pass complete on a Deep out.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 11:47DAL +9% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at JAX 44 for 27 yards (21-A.Bouye). Pass complete on a Deep out.
Q2 · 11:34DAL +8% win prob(11:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 11-C.Beasley to JAX 31 for 21 yards (23-T.Patmon).
Q1 · 5:48DAL +6% win prob(5:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to JAX 28 for 15 yards (21-A.Bouye).
Q2 · 15:00JAX +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles sacked at DAL 40 for -8 yards (96-M.Collins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Cowboys
Offensive plays	47	72
Total yards	204	378 (edge)
Yards per play	4.3	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.46	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	36%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.58	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22	0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	7/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Cowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.46.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

17/27, 183 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.0 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

15/26, 149 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-13.9 expected points added · -6.9% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

24 att, 106 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

11 att, 82 yds, 1 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Cole BeasleyWR

9/11 for 101 yds, 2 TD

42% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Keelan ColeWR

4/5 for 41 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	5	8	2:05	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 17	9	51	4:19	Turnover on downs
3	JAX	JAX 25	5	3	1:23	Punt
4	DAL	JAX 48	8	48	3:26	Touchdown
5	JAX	JAX 25	9	35	4:30	Punt
6	DAL	DAL 16	10	84	4:49	Touchdown
7	JAX	JAX 32	5	6	1:33	Punt
8	DAL	DAL 22	17	68	7:14	Touchdown
9	JAX	JAX 25	4	12	0:41	End of half
10	DAL	DAL 25	5	9	1:26	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 31	4	5	0:53	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 30	4	-5	1:43	Punt
13	JAX	JAX 18	9	92	3:27	Touchdown
14	DAL	DAL 25	10	57	4:25	Turnover on downs
15	JAX	JAX 25	2	0	0:18	Interception
16	DAL	JAX 8	4	4	1:31	Turnover on downs
17	JAX	JAX 25	2	4	0:07	Fumble
18	DAL	JAX 31	3	36	1:16	Touchdown
19	JAX	JAX 25	9	27	3:08	Turnover on downs
20	DAL	DAL 48	8	15	4:39	Turnover on downs
21	JAX	JAX 25	8	14	2:41	Punt
22	DAL	DAL 20	7	11	4:02	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 36	1	-2	0:24	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 92 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Blake Bortles	15/26	149	1	1	3	-13.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
T.J. Yeldon	8	41	5.1	0.1
Blake Bortles	4	22	5.5	1.7
Jamaal Charles	5	5	1.0	-2.9
Niles Paul	1	-3	-3.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	4	5	41	0	19%	-1.1
Dede Westbrook	3	5	38	1	19%	-6.2
T.J. Yeldon	3	5	29	0	19%	-1.3
James O'Shaughnessy	3	4	29	0	15%	0.3
David Grinnage	1	1	7	0	4%	0.4
Jamaal Charles	1	2	5	0	8%	-0.2
Donte Moncrief	0	3	0	0	12%	-5.5
D.J. Chark	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Telvin Smith	6	4	0.0	0
A.J. Bouye	5	1	0.0	2
Calais Campbell	4	2	1.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	5	1	0.0	0
Myles Jack	3	2	0.0	0
Barry Church	4	1	0.0	0
Tyler Patmon	4	0	0.0	1
Jalen Ramsey	3	1	0.0	1
Yannick Ngakoue	4	0	2.0	0
Leon Jacobs	3	1	0.0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	17/27	183	2	0	3	2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	24	106	4.4	1	1.9
Dak Prescott	11	82	7.5	1	4.4
Tavon Austin	2	14	7.0	0	-0.1
Rod Smith	5	4	0.8	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	9	11	101	2	42%	8.1
Michael Gallup	1	2	27	0	8%	2.4
Geoff Swaim	2	2	21	0	8%	1.7
Rico Gathers	1	1	14	0	4%	1.3
Ezekiel Elliott	1	1	11	0	4%	0.7
Tavon Austin	1	1	5	0	4%	0.3
Jamize Olawale	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.4
Deonte Thompson	1	1	1	0	4%	-0.4
Blake Jarwin	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6
Allen Hurns	0	5	0	0	19%	-4.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jaylon Smith	7	3	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	6	4	0.0	0	1
Anthony Brown	2	1	0.0	0	0
Randy Gregory	3	0	1.0	0	0
Jamize Olawale	1	1	0.0	0	0
Antwaun Woods	0	2	0.5	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	2	0	0.0	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	2	0	0.0	0	0
Tyrone Crawford	0	2	0.5	0	0
Jeff Heath	0	2	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: JAX -3
Closing total: 39.5
JAX moneyline: -173
DAL moneyline: +156

Jaguars closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 39.5; the game landed 47 — over by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: JAX 7 days · DAL 7 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Jason Garrett