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Kansas City Chiefs 40 at New England Patriots 43. Final.
Patriots -4 no coverO 59.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
New England Patriots 43, Chiefs 40 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 3:15, 1st and 10, on Tyreek Hill — 28.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:15 · 1st and 10
Tyreek Hill
Chiefs
(3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Patriots closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 43–40 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:15, Chiefs +28.0% win probability on one snap.
28.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ4 10:223-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 35 to KC 0. 39-Tr. Smith to NE 3 for 97 yards (32-D.McCourty).
22.7pts
Chris HoganPatriotsQ4 7:20(7:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan to KC 24 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller). Penalty on KC-23-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
20.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 6 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Patriots won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Chiefs at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 10 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chiefs.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Chiefs172 of 181 plays carry both curves
(3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −28.0 for PatriotsExpected points −6.09 for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 170
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:15NE +28% win prob(3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:22NE +23% win prob3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 35 to KC 0. 39-Tr. Smith to NE 3 for 97 yards (32-D.McCourty).
4th · 7:20NE +20% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan to KC 24 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller). Penalty on KC-23-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st · 5:12KC +19% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Hightower at KC 31. 54-D.Hightower to KC 4 for 27 yards (84-D.Harris).
4th · 0:51NE +18% win prob(:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski to KC 9 for 39 yards (30-J.Shaw). NE 87-Gronkowski 500 career rec, 15th TE to achieve that milestone.
4th · 5:32NE +14% win prob(5:32) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-22-O.Scandrick, Defensive Holding, declined.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Gostkowski's 28-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:09Harrison Butker·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+33–0
1st5:22Stephen Gostkowski·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+33–3
4th3:19Stephen Gostkowski·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+333–40
4th3:15Tyreek Hill·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+740–40
4th0:03Stephen Gostkowski·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+340–43
17 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryPatriots
Chiefs2–7Patriots
446Total yards501
8.4Yards per play6.8
49%Success rate51%
40%Third-down rate54%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
6Explosive plays11
18First downs29
0Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Patriots ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Chiefs: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.14Patriots: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Chiefs: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.12Patriots: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Chiefs: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.15Patriots: +0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 53 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Patriots’s 74 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 7, Patriots 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.6% in week 5 against 5.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 67.3% in week 5 against 46.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots8.1%
inside their normal wobble · −7.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.3%, 9.7 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.3 times their own 7.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 3:15 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 25 · gained 75 · +6.09 EP · +28.4% win probability
170 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
17 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
51%
Yards
946
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1668%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.3876%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23+0.2226%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1050%
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.190%
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 40
Chiefs3Patriots0
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Patriots 24
Chiefs3Patriots3
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Chiefs3Patriots9
Chiefs3Patriots10
Touchdown2 plays
Chiefs6Patriots10
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Patriots 24
The period ended8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 29
2nd quarter45 plays
Chiefs6Patriots16
Chiefs6Patriots17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Chiefs 17
Chiefs9Patriots17
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Patriots 4
Chiefs9Patriots23
Chiefs9Patriots24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 1
Intercepted13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Patriots 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Chiefs15Patriots24
Chiefs16Patriots24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 33
Chiefs16Patriots27
Field goal13 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Chiefs 5
Chiefs19Patriots27
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Patriots 12
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 36
Chiefs25Patriots27
Chiefs26Patriots27
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 29 to the Patriots 14
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 26
4th quarter49 plays
Chiefs26Patriots30
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Chiefs 21
Chiefs32Patriots30
Chiefs33Patriots30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 3 to the Patriots 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
Chiefs33Patriots36
Chiefs33Patriots37
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 28
Chiefs33Patriots40
Field goal7 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Chiefs 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.2 seconds
Chiefs39Patriots40
Chiefs40Patriots40
Touchdown3 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs40Patriots43
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chiefs 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
