2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Gillette Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs

New England PatriotsWinner

NE -4 no coverO 59.5 ✓Patriots closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 43–40 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 3:15, NE +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:15KC — NE KC ball · 1st & 10NE 88%

(3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:15NE +28% win prob(3:15) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 10:22NE +23% win prob3-S.Gostkowski kicks 65 yards from NE 35 to KC 0. 39-Tr. Smith to NE 3 for 97 yards (32-D.McCourty).
Q4 · 7:20NE +20% win prob(7:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan to KC 24 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller). Penalty on KC-23-K.Fuller, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q1 · 5:12KC +19% win prob(5:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 54-D.Hightower at KC 31. 54-D.Hightower to KC 4 for 27 yards (84-D.Harris).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Patriots
Offensive plays	53	74
Total yards	446	501 (edge)
Yards per play	8.4 (edge)	6.8
Expected points added / play	0.22 (edge)	0.14
Success rate	49%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.12
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.15
Third downs	4/10	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

23/36, 352 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

8.3 expected points added · +0.5% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

24/35, 340 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.1 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Sony MichelRB

24 att, 106 yds, 2 TD

3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

10 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

7/12 for 142 yds, 3 TD

33% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Kareem HuntRB

5/6 for 105 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	8	35	2:29	Turnover on downs
2	KC	KC 41	8	35	3:26	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 25	9	40	3:47	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 23	2	0	0:17	Interception
5	NE	KC 4	2	4	0:04	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 45	6	31	1:32	Turnover on downs
7	NE	NE 25	12	75	5:33	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	12	74	6:31	Turnover on downs
9	NE	NE 25	9	37	4:24	Touchdown
10	KC	KC 25	10	70	1:53	Interception
11	NE	NE 20	1	0	0:04	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	5	75	1:33	Touchdown
13	NE	NE 30	13	65	6:10	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 37	10	51	3:41	Turnover on downs
15	NE	NE 25	5	4	1:13	Fumble
16	KC	NE 29	5	29	1:27	Touchdown
17	NE	NE 25	12	54	5:34	Turnover on downs
18	KC	NE 3	5	3	1:44	Touchdown
19	NE	NE 25	9	75	3:13	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 25	5	3	1:35	Punt
21	NE	NE 21	5	47	0:35	Turnover on downs
22	KC	KC 25	3	75	0:12	Touchdown
23	NE	NE 25	8	65	3:03	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	23/36	352	4	2	0	8.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Kareem Hunt	10	80	8.0	4.0
Patrick Mahomes	2	9	4.5	2.8
Spencer Ware	2	5	2.5	-0.4
Damien Williams	1	1	1.0	-0.4
Tyreek Hill	1	0	0.0	-1.8
Sammy Watkins	1	-1	-1.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	7	12	142	3	33%	9.6
Kareem Hunt	5	6	105	1	17%	8.4
Travis Kelce	5	9	61	0	25%	-8.3
Chris Conley	1	1	19	0	3%	1.1
Sammy Watkins	2	4	18	0	11%	-0.6
Spencer Ware	2	3	9	0	8%	-0.5
Anthony Sherman	1	1	-2	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Anthony Hitchens	6	8	0.0	0
Jordan Lucas	4	6	0.0	1
Ron Parker	7	2	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	4	3	0.5	0
Breeland Speaks	1	5	0.5	0
Xavier Williams	2	3	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	4	0.0	0
Steven Nelson	4	0	0.0	0
Orlando Scandrick	3	1	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	1	0.0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	24/35	340	1	0	2	2.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Sony Michel	24	106	4.4	2	3.8
James White	6	39	6.5	0	2.0
Kenjon Barner	3	16	5.3	0	-0.1
Julian Edelman	1	7	7.0	0	0.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	3	3.0	0	0.1
Tom Brady	3	2	0.7	1	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	3	4	97	0	11%	3.6
Chris Hogan	4	4	78	0	11%	3.9
Julian Edelman	4	7	54	1	20%	3.5
James White	5	7	53	0	20%	0.4
Josh Gordon	5	9	42	0	26%	-2.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	13	0	3%	1.2
James Develin	2	2	3	0	6%	-0.8
Sony Michel	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Trey Flowers	2	5	0	0
Elandon Roberts	2	5	0	1
Jason McCourty	5	1	0	1
Jonathan Jones	2	2	0	0
Patrick Chung	2	2	0	0
Devin McCourty	4	0	0	0
Danny Shelton	2	1	0	0
Duron Harmon	3	0	1	1
Dont'a Hightower	0	2	1	1
Stephon Gilmore	2	0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -4
Closing total: 59.5
KC moneyline: +171
NE moneyline: -190

Patriots closed -4, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 59.5; the game landed 83 — over by 23.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 45°F, wind 0 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: KC 7 days · NE 10 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Bill Belichick