For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Chargers169 of 177 plays carry both curves
(2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
Swing −9.5 for BrownsExpected points −3.25 for BrownsThe model had Chargers 4 points higher than the market did.play 75
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:19LAC +10% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
1st · 8:35CLE +9% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson pushed ob at LAC 40 for 32 yards (37-J.Addae).
1st · 13:31LAC +8% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 35 for -7 yards (sack split by 23-R.Jenkins and 94-C.Liuget).
2nd · 7:46CLE +7% win prob(7:46) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams to CLE 45 for 44 yards (28-E.Gaines).
2nd · 4:05CLE +7% win prob(4:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb left tackle pushed ob at LAC 23 for 19 yards (33-D.James). PENALTY on CLE-18-D.Ratley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 23.
1st · 4:55CLE +7% win prob(4:55) (No Huddle) 6-B.Mayfield right guard to LAC 43 for 2 yards (37-J.Addae).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Melvin Gordon's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 10:20 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:20Melvin Gordon·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:50Greg Joseph·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+37–3
2nd6:43Tyrell Williams·45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+714–3
2nd0:57Tyrell Williams·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+721–3
2nd0:03Greg Joseph·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+321–6
4th4:19Michael Badgley·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+338–14
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBrowns
Chargers8–1Browns
451Total yards319
8.1Yards per play4.4
55%Success rate33%
13%Third-down rate38%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
16Explosive plays7
22First downs20
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Chargers: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.33Browns: −0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Chargers: +0.22 expected points added per play
−0.42Browns: −0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.27Chargers: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.09Browns: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 56 snaps at a 39% dropback rate against Browns’s 73 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 6, Browns 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's early-down pass rate, 31.3%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 5.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 43.2% in week 5.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
high through week 6Against their seasonFourth Down
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 36.0 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate, 18.2%, is past their previous high of 15.2% in week 3 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Browns18.2%
leaned — got home · +5.3 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+1.10× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 31.3%, 21.3 points below their season mean of 52.6% and 2.2 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass+10% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:46) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams to CLE 45 for 44 yards (28-E.Gaines).
Q2 7:46 · Chargers · 1st & 10 at LAC 11 · gained 44 · +2.77 EP · +10.3% win probability
167 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 89 yards from the LAC 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
41%
Yards
768
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.3775%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.0252%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.5440%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.1311%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.0357%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.8420%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 42
Chargers6Browns0
Chargers7Browns0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Browns 4
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Chargers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 8
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Chargers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 4 to the Chargers 9
2nd quarter52 plays
Chargers7Browns3
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 15
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 39 to the Chargers 35
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chargers13Browns3
Chargers14Browns3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Browns 45
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Chargers 23
Chargers20Browns3
Chargers21Browns3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Browns 29
Chargers21Browns6
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Chargers 10
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Browns 47
Intercepted1 play
Chargers27Browns6
Chargers28Browns6
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 36
Chargers34Browns6
Chargers35Browns6
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Browns 11
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 40
The period ended3 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 16
4th quarter39 plays
Punt2 plays
Chargers35Browns12
Chargers35Browns14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 1
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Browns 7
Intercepted2 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Browns 17
Chargers38Browns14
Field goal5 plays
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Chargers 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
