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2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

38

Cleveland Browns

14

CLE -1 upsetO 47 ✓

Los Angeles Chargers 38–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:19, LAC +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CLE ↑LAC ↓
Q2 · 2:19LAC — CLE CLE ball · 4th & 2LAC 75%

(2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 2:19LAC +10% win prob(2:19) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Landry.
  2. Q1 · 8:35CLE +9% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 29-D.Johnson pushed ob at LAC 40 for 32 yards (37-J.Addae).
  3. Q1 · 13:31LAC +8% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 35 for -7 yards (sack split by 23-R.Jenkins and 94-C.Liuget).
  4. Q2 · 7:46CLE +7% win prob(7:46) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams to CLE 45 for 44 yards (28-E.Gaines).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersBrowns
Offensive plays5673
Total yards451 (edge)319
Yards per play8.1 (edge)4.4
Expected points added / play0.25 (edge)-0.33
Success rate55% (edge)33%
Dropback rate39%73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)-0.42
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.27 (edge)-0.09
Third downs1/86/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)16 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)20
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.33.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

22/46, 238 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-22.2 expected points added · -10.4% completion over expected

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

11/20, 207 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.6 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Melvin GordonRB

18 att, 132 yds, 3 TD

9.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

7 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Tyrell WilliamsWR

3/4 for 118 yds, 2 TD

19% of team targets · 10.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Damion RatleyWR

6/8 for 82 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CLECLE 23672:14Punt
2LACLAC 436572:32Touchdown
3CLECLE 239543:10Punt
4LACLAC 4440:54Punt
5CLECLE 461095:16Punt
6LACLAC 4450:54Punt
7CLELAC 337182:13Turnover on downs
8LACLAC 257253:00Punt
9CLELAC 394-12:01Punt
10LACLAC 113891:12Touchdown
11CLECLE 2111664:21Turnover on downs
12LACLAC 237771:22Touchdown
13CLECLE 319590:51Turnover on downs
14LACLAC 246132:55Punt
15CLECLE 28100:11Interception
16LACCLE 102100:05Touchdown
17CLECLE 33531:27Punt
18LACLAC 1912967:10Touchdown
19CLECLE 258152:00Punt
20LACLAC 8471:56Punt
21CLELAC 428441:50Touchdown
22LACLAC 279555:02Interception
23CLECLE 42130:32Interception
24LACCLE 25592:37Turnover on downs
25CLECLE 258322:17Turnover on downs
26LACLAC 43341:58End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 96 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers11/202072114.6
Geno Smith1/180000.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Melvin Gordon181327.339.3
Austin Ekeler7608.602.6
Keenan Allen44110.300.4
Mike Williams11010.000.8
Justin Jackson341.30-2.8
Tyrell Williams111.00-1.1
Geno Smith2-2-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tyrell Williams34118219%10.5
Keenan Allen4662029%3.1
Melvin Gordon2418019%-3.7
Justin Jackson11805%0.2
Antonio Gates125010%-0.3
Mike Williams144019%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jahleel Addae720.000
Denzel Perryman260.000
Rayshawn Jenkins440.500
Derwin James410.500
Trevor Williams400.000
Michael Davis310.000
Corey Liuget211.500
Casey Hayward210.000
Damion Square211.500
Adrian Phillips200.002

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield22/46238125-22.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Duke Johnson23618.002.4
Carlos Hyde14342.40-6.8
Nick Chubb3258.300.6
Baker Mayfield284.001.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Damion Ratley6882019%3.0
Duke Johnson4573012%6.4
David Njoku71255128%-2.9
Jarvis Landry21011023%-16.3
Antonio Callaway279016%-2.9
Orson Charles11802%0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Damarious Randall800.000
Jamie Collins510.000
Jabrill Peppers310.000
Larry Ogunjobi310.500
Emmanuel Ogbah300.000
Derrick Kindred120.000
Joe Schobert210.501
Denzel Ward300.000
Brian Price110.000
T.J. Carrie200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CLE -1
Closing total
47
LAC moneyline
-105
CLE moneyline
-105

Browns closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 52 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
51°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
LAC 7 days · CLE 7 days
Coaches
Anthony Lynn vs Hue Jackson