2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Denver Broncos

LA -7 no coverU 50 ✓25°FRams closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 12:57, DEN +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:57LA — DEN LA ball · 1st & 10LA 79%

(12:57) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 12-B.Cooks pushed ob at DEN 12 for 44 yards (31-J.Simmons).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:57DEN +7% win prob(12:57) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 12-B.Cooks pushed ob at DEN 12 for 44 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Q1 · 6:33DEN +5% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at DEN 29 for 28 yards (26-D.Stewart).
Q2 · 11:02DEN +5% win prob(11:02) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 12:45DEN +4% win prob(12:45) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left to 88-De.Thomas ran ob at DEN 47 for 45 yards.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Broncos
Offensive plays	70	59
Total yards	446 (edge)	358
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	6.1
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	53% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	50%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	-0.11
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

25/41, 322 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · -2.1% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

14/28, 201 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.8 expected points added · -16.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

28 att, 208 yds, 2 TD

12.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Malcolm BrownRB

5 att, 24 yds, 0 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Emmanuel SandersWR

7/10 for 115 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

7/10 for 109 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 9.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	3	1:34	Punt
2	LA	LA 29	7	63	2:03	Turnover on downs
3	DEN	DEN 25	6	22	2:36	Punt
4	LA	LA 8	9	71	4:26	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 25	10	80	4:18	Turnover on downs
6	LA	LA 34	9	66	4:06	Touchdown
7	DEN	DEN 25	8	27	3:03	Punt
8	LA	LA 14	7	33	3:38	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 13	12	37	3:37	Turnover on downs
10	LA	50	4	3	0:28	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 9	1	0	0:11	End of half
12	LA	LA 25	8	21	2:11	Punt
13	DEN	DEN 2	6	34	2:40	Punt
14	LA	LA 42	9	62	4:00	Touchdown
15	DEN	DEN 25	8	36	3:07	Interception
16	LA	LA 6	3	4	0:57	Interception
17	DEN	LA 12	2	22	0:31	Touchdown
18	LA	LA 25	13	51	6:20	Turnover on downs
19	DEN	DEN 37	5	46	1:20	Turnover on downs
20	LA	LA 25	14	72	5:39	Turnover on downs
21	DEN	DEN 23	11	51	1:53	Touchdown
22	LA	DEN 44	3	0	1:22	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 80 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	14/28	201	0	1	5	-4.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Todd Gurley	28	208	7.4	2	12.4
Malcolm Brown	5	24	4.8	0	0.2
Jared Goff	4	14	3.5	0	0.7
Robert Woods	1	12	12.0	0	0.9
Cooper Kupp	1	12	12.0	0	1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	7	10	109	36%	9.7
Brandin Cooks	2	6	53	21%	0.7
Gerald Everett	2	4	24	14%	-1.5
Todd Gurley	2	5	17	18%	-1.3
Cooper Kupp	0	1	0	4%	-0.9
Josh Reynolds	1	2	-2	7%	-4.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Hill	7	0	0.0	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	5	2	1.0	0	0
Cory Littleton	4	1	0.0	0	2
Michael Brockers	4	1	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	2	2	0.0	1	1
Aaron Donald	2	1	1.0	0	0
Matt Longacre	1	2	0.0	0	0
Marqui Christian	2	1	0.0	0	0
Marcus Peters	1	1	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	1	0.0	0	0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	25/41	322	2	1	2	-0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Royce Freeman	9	22	2.4	-3.6
Phillip Lindsay	4	18	4.5	0.5
Devontae Booker	2	15	7.5	1.5
Case Keenum	1	6	6.0	1.4
Chad Kelly	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	7	10	115	1	26%	4.3
Courtland Sutton	3	4	58	0	10%	2.1
Demaryius Thomas	3	4	57	1	10%	5.0
Phillip Lindsay	6	7	48	0	18%	2.5
Jeff Heuerman	3	5	23	0	13%	-2.9
Devontae Booker	2	3	14	0	8%	0.1
Matt LaCosse	1	4	7	0	10%	-1.1
DaeSean Hamilton	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9
Brian Parker	0	1	0	0	3%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Darian Stewart	8	1	0.5	1	1
Todd Davis	3	3	0.0	0	1
Brandon Marshall	4	2	0.0	0	0
Domata Peko	4	1	0.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	4	1	3.0	0	0
Von Miller	1	4	1.5	0	0
Justin Simmons	3	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Harris	4	0	0.0	0	0
Zach Kerr	1	2	0.0	0	0
Josey Jewell	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7
Closing total: 50
LA moneyline: -300
DEN moneyline: +264

Rams closed -7, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50; the game landed 43 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 25°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: LA 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Vance Joseph