For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 30 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Rams174 of 185 plays carry both curves
(12:57) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 12-B.Cooks pushed ob at DEN 12 for 44 yards (31-J.Simmons).
Swing −7.1 for BroncosExpected points −2.89 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 26 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:57DEN +7% win prob(12:57) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 12-B.Cooks pushed ob at DEN 12 for 44 yards (31-J.Simmons).
1st · 6:33DEN +5% win prob(6:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods pushed ob at DEN 29 for 28 yards (26-D.Stewart).
2nd · 11:02DEN +5% win prob(11:02) 30-T.Gurley left tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:45DEN +4% win prob(12:45) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left to 88-De.Thomas ran ob at DEN 47 for 45 yards.
1st · 1:47DEN +4% win prob(1:47) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-C.Keenum pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders to LA 1 for 43 yards (32-T.Hill). PENALTY on DEN-10-E.Sanders, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at LA 1.
4th · 10:14DEN +4% win prob(10:14) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to LA 22 for 41 yards (20-L.Joyner) [99-A.Donald]. PENALTY on LA-20-L.Joyner, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at LA 22.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 26-yard field goal with 11:27 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:27Cairo Santos·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+33–0
1st4:25Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+36–0
1st0:07Brandon McManus·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+36–3
3rd1:40Emmanuel Sanders·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+720–10
4th8:57Brandon McManus·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+320–13
4th3:19Cairo Santos·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+323–13
4th1:27Demaryius Thomas·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+723–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBroncos
Rams7–1Broncos
446Total yards358
6.4Yards per play6.1
53%Success rate44%
47%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
12Explosive plays5
22First downs17
5Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Rams: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.01Broncos: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.03Broncos: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.43Rams: +0.43 expected points added per play
−0.11Broncos: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 70 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Broncos’s 59 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Rams 5, Broncos 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Broncos14.3%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.8%, 14.0 points above their season mean of 56.9% and 1.4 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
53 dressed · 8 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%74 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%74 snaps
65John SullivanC · Every snap100%74 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time97%72 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Full-time93%69 snaps
12Brandin CooksWR · Full-time92%68 snaps
30Todd GurleyRB · Heavy rotation78%58 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Heavy rotation77%57 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation74%55 snaps
83Josh ReynoldsWR · Heavy rotation62%46 snaps
18Cooper KuppWR · Rotational38%28 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Rotational28%21 snaps
68Jamon BrownG · Situational23%17 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Situational22%16 snaps
70Joe NoteboomT · Situational7%5 snaps
11KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational5%4 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Brian AllenCDarious WilliamsCBTanzel SmartDTSebastian Joseph-DayDTGreg ZuerleinKTrevon YoungOLBSean MannionQBJohn KellyRB
Denver Broncos
53 dressed · 7 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%66 snaps
77Billy TurnerOG · Every snap100%66 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%66 snaps
4Case KeenumQB · Full-time98%65 snaps
82Jeff HeuermanTE · Full-time88%58 snaps
10Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time85%56 snaps
60Connor McGovernG · Heavy rotation76%50 snaps
88Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation73%48 snaps
76Max GarciaG · Heavy rotation67%44 snaps
65Ronald LearyG · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Rotational41%27 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Rotational38%25 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Rotational33%22 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Rotational27%18 snaps
32Andy JanovichRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Situational3%2 snaps
89Brian ParkerTE · Situational3%2 snaps
6Chad KellyQB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Adam JonesCBDeMarcus WalkerDESam JonesGA.J. JohnsonMLBKevin HoganQBShamarko ThomasSSJared VeldheerT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum pass+11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(10:14) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton to LA 22 for 41 yards (20-L.Joyner) [99-A.Donald]. PENALTY on LA-20-L.Joyner, Unnecessary Roughness, 11 yards, enforced at LA 22.
Q4 10:14 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 37 · gained 41 · +3.07 EP · +11.2% win probability
172 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 77 yards from the DEN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
45%
Yards
801
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR70+0.1847%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.0787%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0669%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.2145%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.0260%
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 28
Rams3Broncos0
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Broncos 8
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 47
Rams6Broncos0
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Broncos 21
Rams6Broncos3
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 10
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Rams12Broncos3
Rams13Broncos3
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Broncos 10
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 35
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Broncos 38
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Rams 39
Punt6 plays, from midfield to the Broncos 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 46
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 2 to midfield
Rams19Broncos3
Rams20Broncos3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 42 to the Broncos 1
Intercepted8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Rams 34
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Rams 10
Rams20Broncos9
Rams20Broncos10
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 35
4th quarter50 plays
No good9 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Broncos 19
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams20Broncos13
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Rams 6
Rams23Broncos13
Field goal18 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Broncos 3
Rams23Broncos19
Rams23Broncos20
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Rams 1
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
