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Philadelphia Eagles 34 at New York Giants 13. Final.
Eagles -1.5 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
Philadelphia Eagles 34, Giants 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:24, 2nd and 2, on Kamu Grugier-Hill — 18.2 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:24 · 2nd and 2
Kamu Grugier-Hill
Eagles
(14:24) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 82-S.Simonson INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (58-J.Hicks) at NYG 40. 54-K.Grugier-Hill pushed ob at NYG 16 for 24 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Eagles closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:24, Eagles +18.2% win probability on one snap.
18.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Saquon BarkleyGiantsQ1 11:50(11:50) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 18 for 46 yards (29-A.Maddox).
6.7pts
Nelson AgholorEaglesQ2 5:13(5:13) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at NYG 10 for 58 yards (35-C.Riley). Penalty on NYG-59-L.Carter, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
9.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Eagles won this one — 9 of 16 on third down, against Giants at 4 of 14 on third down.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Eagles173 of 184 plays carry both curves
(14:24) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 82-S.Simonson INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (58-J.Hicks) at NYG 40. 54-K.Grugier-Hill pushed ob at NYG 16 for 24 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Swing −18.2 for GiantsExpected points −6.95 for GiantsThe model had Giants 10 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:24PHI +18% win prob(14:24) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 82-S.Simonson INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (58-J.Hicks) at NYG 40. 54-K.Grugier-Hill pushed ob at NYG 16 for 24 yards (26-S.Barkley).
2nd · 5:13NYG +9% win prob(5:13) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 13-N.Agholor pushed ob at NYG 10 for 58 yards (35-C.Riley). Penalty on NYG-59-L.Carter, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
1st · 11:50NYG +7% win prob(11:50) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 18 for 46 yards (29-A.Maddox).
2nd · 8:06NYG +6% win prob(8:06) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 13 for 55 yards (55-B.Graham).
1st · 8:45NYG +6% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 13-N.Agholor to PHI 49 for 32 yards (31-M.Thomas).
2nd · 6:57NYG +5% win prob(6:57) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 26-S.Barkley to PHI 9 for 9 yards (27-M.Jenkins) [77-M.Bennett]. PENALTY on PHI-77-M.Bennett, Roughing the Passer, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 9.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alshon Jeffery's 13-yard touchdown catch with 13:27 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th14:56Jake Elliott·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+334–13
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Eagles6–3Giants
379Total yards401
5.6Yards per play6.3
44%Success rate33%
56%Third-down rate29%
4Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays6
20First downs16
1Sacks taken4
1Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Eagles: +0.23 expected points added per play
−0.15Giants: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.53Eagles: +0.53 expected points added per play
−0.33Giants: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Eagles: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.34Giants: +0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 68 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Giants’s 64 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 6, Giants 4.
NoteGiants outgained Eagles 401-379 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 48.1%, is past their previous low of 50.8% in week 3 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 5.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +9.3 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Giants12.8%
right on their number · −0.2 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 33.1 points below their season mean of 33.1% and 1.2 times their own 26.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:24) 10-E.Manning pass short middle intended for 82-S.Simonson INTERCEPTED by 54-K.Grugier-Hill (58-J.Hicks) at NYG 40. 54-K.Grugier-Hill pushed ob at NYG 16 for 24 yards (26-S.Barkley).
Q1 14:24 · Giants · 2nd & 2 at NYG 33 · gained nothing · -6.95 EP · −20.0% win probability
171 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 184 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 184 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 75 yards from the PHI 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
184 of 184 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
184
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
39%
Yards
780
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0783%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.3160%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21+0.2057%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.6467%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.2322%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
184 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
184 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
Eagles6Giants0
Eagles7Giants0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 13
Eagles7Giants3
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 14 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 16
Eagles13Giants3
Eagles14Giants3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 44 to the Giants 1
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Eagles 26
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 39
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Eagles 23
Eagles14Giants6
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 32 to the Eagles 3
Eagles20Giants6
Eagles21Giants6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 10
Punt5 plays
Eagles24Giants6
Field goal10 plays, from midfield to the Giants 15
No good6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Eagles 34
No good6 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Giants 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Eagles30Giants6
Eagles31Giants6
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Giants 1
Eagles31Giants12
Eagles31Giants13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 25 to midfield
The period ended13 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Giants 14
4th quarter46 plays
Eagles34Giants13
Field goal2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Giants 40
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 18 to the Eagles 23
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Eagles 5
Punt13 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Eagles 30
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -1.5
Closing total
45.5
Eagles moneyline
-126
Giants moneyline
+114
Eagles closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 47 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south; 0.28 in of precipitation; slight rain.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Eagles 4 days · Giants 4 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Pat Shurmur
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 6:56PHI +4% win prob(6:56) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 1 for -8 yards (77-M.Bennett). FUMBLES (77-M.Bennett) [77-M.Bennett], recovered by NYG-76-N.Solder at NYG 1. 76-N.Solder to NYG 1 for no gain (77-M.Bennett).
1st · 4:17NYG +4% win prob(4:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery to NYG 23 for 17 yards (24-E.Apple; 35-C.Riley).
Eaglescategory by categoryGiants
Eagles6
Giants0
