For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Steelers165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −33.8 for BengalsExpected points −4.69 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 3 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:15CIN +34% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:22CIN +23% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 31 for 23 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
4th · 1:21CIN +16% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00CIN +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 1 for 29 yards (21-D.Dennard). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 6:22CIN +11% win prob(6:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown pushed ob at CIN 14 for 48 yards (22-W.Jackson). CIN-22-W.Jackson was injured during the play. CIN-27-D.Kirkpatrick was injured during the play.
4th · 2:20CIN +10% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to PIT 34 for 16 yards (20-C.Sutton).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Brown's 31-yard touchdown catch with 0:15 left in the 4th put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st4:41Tyler Boyd·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+70–7
4th0:15Antonio Brown·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point goodLead never changed again+828–21
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBengals
Steelers6–2Bengals
484Total yards275
7.2Yards per play4.7
48%Success rate50%
57%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
12Explosive plays4
24First downs18
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Steelers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.32Steelers: +0.32 expected points added per play
+0.08Bengals: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.43Steelers: +0.43 expected points added per play
+0.10Bengals: +0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.01Bengals: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 67 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bengals’s 58 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 5, Bengals 3.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 2.1%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 11.1% in week 3.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 5.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's early-down pass rate, 73.9%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 5.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points.
PIT's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 5 against 8.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 26 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Bengals2.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.52× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.1%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 12.8% and 1.5 times their own 7.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
53 dressed · 9 never used
77Marcus GilbertOT · Every snap100%73 snaps
73Ramon FosterG · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%73 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%73 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%73 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%73 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Full-time90%66 snaps
84Antonio BrownWR · Full-time86%63 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
81Jesse JamesTE · Heavy rotation70%51 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Heavy rotation68%50 snaps
85Xavier GrimbleTE · Rotational29%21 snaps
45Roosevelt NixFB · Situational23%17 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Situational22%16 snaps
11Justin HunterWR · Situational19%14 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Situational11%8 snaps
22Stevan RidleyRB · Situational8%6 snaps
10Ryan SwitzerWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Marcus AllenDBL.T. WaltonDEL.J. FortILBMason RudolphQBJoshua DobbsQBMorgan BurnettSSMatt FeilerTZach BannerTDarrius Heyward-BeyWR
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 8 never used
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%61 snaps
65Clint BolingG · Every snap100%61 snaps
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%61 snaps
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Cordy GlennOT · Every snap100%61 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%61 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time95%58 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time93%57 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time92%56 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Heavy rotation75%46 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
32Mark WaltonHB · Rotational31%19 snaps
16Cody CoreWR · Situational13%8 snaps
86Mason SchreckTE · Situational11%7 snaps
74Jake FisherOT · Situational11%7 snaps
80Josh MaloneWR · Situational7%4 snaps
89Matt LengelTE · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Billy PriceCAdolphus WashingtonDTGiovani BernardHBCedric OgbuehiOTJeff DriskelQBTyler KroftTEAuden TateWRJohn RossWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:15 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at CIN 31 · gained 31 · +4.69 EP · +34.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 85 yards from the PIT 12 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
46%
Yards
758
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1884%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.6292%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.0567%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.7650%
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.2567%
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR5-0.4020%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 44
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 18
Steelers0Bengals6
Steelers0Bengals7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Steelers 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 19
2nd quarter43 plays
Steelers6Bengals7
Steelers7Bengals7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Bengals 8 to the Bengals 1
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 42
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 19
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Steelers13Bengals7
Steelers14Bengals7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Steelers14Bengals13
Steelers14Bengals14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 44 to the Steelers 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Steelers 40
Steelers17Bengals14
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 30
Punt10 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Bengals 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Steelers 38
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Steelers20Bengals14
Field goal11 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Bengals 6
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Steelers20Bengals20
Steelers20Bengals21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Steelers26Bengals21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Bengals 31
Steelers28Bengals21
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
