2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Paul Brown Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -1 upsetU 49.5 ✓Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers 28–21. Biggest swing: Q4 0:15, CIN +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:15PIT — CIN PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 62%

(:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:15CIN +34% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:22CIN +23% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 31 for 23 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).
Q4 · 1:21CIN +16% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:00CIN +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CIN 1 for 29 yards (21-D.Dennard). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bengals
Offensive plays	67	58
Total yards	484 (edge)	275
Yards per play	7.2 (edge)	4.7
Expected points added / play	0.32 (edge)	0.08
Success rate	48%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.43 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.08 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	8/14 (edge)	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0	0

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs 0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

32/46, 369 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

20.1 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

26/42, 229 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

19 att, 111 yds, 2 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Joe MixonRB

11 att, 64 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

7/10 for 111 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

5/6 for 105 yds, 1 TD

13% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	10	31	4:09	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 22	4	0	1:00	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 16	4	2	0:51	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 46	12	54	4:24	Touchdown
5	PIT	PIT 25	12	85	5:03	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	9	32	4:18	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 10	4	9	1:53	Punt
8	CIN	CIN 9	7	22	2:57	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 25	9	75	4:18	Touchdown
10	CIN	PIT 44	7	44	0:48	Touchdown
11	PIT	PIT 26	2	0	0:19	End of half
12	CIN	PIT 49	5	4	1:46	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 12	12	80	6:21	Turnover on downs
14	CIN	CIN 28	5	0	1:36	Punt
15	PIT	PIT 24	8	41	5:07	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 20	10	45	5:51	Punt
17	PIT	PIT 12	10	87	5:47	Turnover on downs
18	CIN	CIN 25	11	61	2:14	Touchdown
19	PIT	PIT 23	9	74	1:08	Touchdown
20	CIN	CIN 25	3	13	0:10	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 87 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	32/46	369	1	0	0	20.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	19	111	5.8	2	1.9
Stevan Ridley	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	7	10	111	0	22%	9.1
Antonio Brown	5	6	105	1	13%	10.0
Vance McDonald	7	8	68	0	18%	4.0
Xavier Grimble	2	2	35	0	4%	3.4
Jesse James	5	7	26	0	16%	-0.1
James Conner	4	7	18	0	16%	-3.5
Ryan Switzer	1	1	7	0	2%	-0.1
James Washington	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Justin Hunter	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.2
Roosevelt Nix	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.8
Ben Roethlisberger	1	1	-1	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Vince Williams	6	1	1.0	0
Stephon Tuitt	1	4	1.0	0
Mike Hilton	4	1	0.0	1
Javon Hargrave	2	3	1.0	0
Cameron Sutton	5	0	0.0	1
Terrell Edmunds	3	0	0.0	0
Joe Haden	3	0	0.0	2
Bud Dupree	2	0	0.0	0
Artie Burns	2	0	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	1	1	0.0	1

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	26/42	229	2	0	3	4.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Joe Mixon	11	64	5.8	1	1.8
Mark Walton	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	7	12	85	0	29%	4.3
Tyler Boyd	7	9	62	2	22%	6.5
C.J. Uzomah	6	7	54	0	17%	3.2
Joe Mixon	4	7	20	0	17%	-1.9
Alex Erickson	2	3	8	0	7%	-0.2
Cody Core	0	3	0	0	7%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jessie Bates	4	6	0
Preston Brown	3	5	1
Vontaze Burfict	4	4	2
Darqueze Dennard	4	0	0
Clayton Fejedelem	2	2	0
Hardy Nickerson	2	2	0
Carlos Dunlap	2	2	0
Michael Johnson	2	2	0
William Jackson	2	1	1
Jordan Evans	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CIN -1
Closing total: 49.5
PIT moneyline: +103
CIN moneyline: -113

Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 49 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 51°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: PIT 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Marvin Lewis

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.