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Seattle Seahawks 27, Raiders 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:27, 3rd and 8, on Tyrone Swoopes — 8.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:27 · 3rd and 8
Tyrone Swoopes
Seahawks
(9:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 46-T.Swoopes to LV 2 for 23 yards (31-M.Gilchrist).
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Seattle Seahawks 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:27, Seahawks +8.2% win probability on one snap.
8.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Rashaad PennySeahawksQ1 10:43(10:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 20-R.Penny pushed ob at LV 27 for 24 yards (20-D.Worley).
6.6pts
D.CarrRaidersQ1 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 24 for -7 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at LV 24. 90-J.Reed to LV 24 for no gain (77-K.Miller).
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 40.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 100 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Seahawks148 of 156 plays carry both curves
(9:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 46-T.Swoopes to LV 2 for 23 yards (31-M.Gilchrist).
Swing −8.2 for RaidersExpected points −3.11 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 14 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:27OAK +8% win prob(9:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 46-T.Swoopes to LV 2 for 23 yards (31-M.Gilchrist).
1st · 0:29SEA +7% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 24 for -7 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at LV 24. 90-J.Reed to LV 24 for no gain (77-K.Miller).
1st · 10:43OAK +7% win prob(10:43) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 20-R.Penny pushed ob at LV 27 for 24 yards (20-D.Worley).
2nd · 14:17OAK +6% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson to LV 25 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LV 27. 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 83-D.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Wilson bobbled the low shotgun snap
1st · 5:47SEA +5% win prob(5:47) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 28 yards to SEA 46, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
1st · 7:29OAK +5% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 18-J.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaron Brown's 5-yard touchdown catch with 7:29 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:29Jaron Brown·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+77–0
2nd14:17David Moore·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+714–0
2nd0:04Sebastian Janikowski·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+317–0
3rd11:45Sebastian Janikowski·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+320–0
4th15:00Tyler Lockett·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+727–0
4th8:30M.McCrane·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Townsend · snap T.Sieg+327–3
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
3 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27 pts to 9 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SEA's sack or hit rate, 22.5% against a season mean of 17.5% — and SEA swings 8.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
53 dressed · 8 never used
68Justin BrittC · Every snap100%65 snaps
76Duane BrownT · Every snap100%65 snaps
64J.R. SweezyG · Every snap100%65 snaps
65Germain IfediG · Every snap100%65 snaps
3Russell WilsonQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
78D.J. FlukerOG · Every snap100%65 snaps
16Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
89Doug BaldwinWR · Heavy rotation75%49 snaps
87Darrell DanielsTE · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
83David MooreWR · Rotational46%30 snaps
46Tyrone SwoopesTE · Rotational42%27 snaps
32Chris CarsonRB · Rotational42%27 snaps
15Brandon MarshallWR · Rotational38%25 snaps
27Mike DavisRB · Rotational37%24 snaps
18Jaron BrownWR · Rotational34%22 snaps
74George FantOT · Rotational28%18 snaps
20Rashaad PennyRB · Situational20%13 snaps
38Tre MaddenFB · Situational9%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Dion JordanDERasheem GreenDEJordan SimmonsOGK.J. WrightOLBBrett HundleyQBC.J. ProsiseRBT.J. GreenSSNick VannettTE
Oakland Raiders
53 dressed · 9 never used
66Gabe JacksonG · Every snap100%60 snaps
77Kolton MillerT · Every snap100%60 snaps
61Rodney HudsonC · Every snap100%60 snaps
75Brandon ParkerT · Every snap100%60 snaps
4Derek CarrQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
82Jordy NelsonWR · Full-time95%57 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Full-time85%51 snaps
71Justin MurrayOT · Full-time83%50 snaps
10Seth RobertsWR · Heavy rotation73%44 snaps
12Martavis BryantWR · Heavy rotation72%43 snaps
24Marshawn LynchRB · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
30Jalen RichardRB · Rotational40%24 snaps
86Lee SmithTE · Situational20%12 snaps
89Amari CooperWR · Situational20%12 snaps
85Derek CarrierTE · Situational18%11 snaps
76Jon FelicianoG · Situational17%10 snaps
41Keith SmithFB · Situational10%6 snaps
28Doug MartinRB · Situational10%6 snaps
17Dwayne HarrisWR · Situational7%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Nick NelsonCBFrostee RuckerDTKelechi OsemeleGMatt McCraneKAJ McCarronQBDeAndre WashingtonRBKarl JosephSSIan SilbermanTBrandon LaFellWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr sacked−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 24 for -7 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], RECOVERED by SEA-90-J.Reed at LV 24. 90-J.Reed to LV 24 for no gain (77-K.Miller).
Q1 0:29 · Seahawks · 3rd & 5 at LV 31 · lost 7 · -4.52 EP · −10.3% win probability
146 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 82 yards from the SEA 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
554
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.2573%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1449%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10+0.1810%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.2433%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Seahawks6Raiders0
Seahawks7Raiders0
Touchdown18 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Raiders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Punt6 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Raiders 12 to the Raiders 31
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Seahawks13Raiders0
Seahawks14Raiders0
Touchdown3 plays
No good18 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Seahawks 22
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Raiders 43
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Raiders 10 to the Seahawks 41
Seahawks17Raiders0
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Raiders 26
3rd quarter39 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 26
Seahawks20Raiders0
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 11 to the Raiders 8
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Intercepted7 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Raiders 11
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 35
The period ended8 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Raiders 10
4th quarter31 plays
Seahawks26Raiders0
Seahawks27Raiders0
Touchdown2 plays
Seahawks27Raiders3
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Seahawks 17
The period ended15 plays, from the Seahawks 14 to the Raiders 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -3
Closing total
47.5
Seahawks moneyline
-152
Raiders moneyline
+137
Seahawks closed -3 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 30 — under by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north; 0.06 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Peter Morelli
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Raiders 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Jon Gruden
2nd · 0:46SEA +4% win prob(:46) 4-D.Carr up the middle to SEA 41 for no gain (54-B.Wagner). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 12:40SEA +4% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson left guard to SEA 42 for 1 yard (99-A.Key, 55-M.Lee).
