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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
San Francisco 49ers 30 at Green Bay Packers 33. Final.
Packers -9 no coverO 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
Green Bay Packers 33, 49ers 30 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:13, 3rd and 3, on Kevin King — 24.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:13 · 3rd and 3
Kevin King
Packers
(1:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King [21-H.Clinton-Dix] at GB 10. 20-K.King to GB 10 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Packers closed -9, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:13, Packers +24.7% win probability on one snap.
24.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Aaron Rodgers49ersQ4 7:49(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (24-K.Williams).
16.8pts
Davante AdamsPackersQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
49ers owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Packers at +0.01 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against 49ers at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on 49ers166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(1:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King [21-H.Clinton-Dix] at GB 10. 20-K.King to GB 10 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Swing +24.7 for PackersExpected points +0.97 for PackersThe model had Packers 8 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:13SF +25% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King [21-H.Clinton-Dix] at GB 10. 20-K.King to GB 10 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
4th · 7:49SF +17% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (24-K.Williams).
4th · 2:00GB +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:15GB +15% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 19-E.St. Brown pushed ob at SF 28 for 19 yards (26-G.Mabin).
1st · 10:53GB +14% win prob(10:53) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling ran ob at SF 17 for 60 yards (20-J.Ward).
4th · 0:49GB +12% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 15 for -4 yards (99-D.Buckner). PENALTY on SF-25-R.Sherman, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at GB 19 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mason Crosby's 27-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Mason Crosby·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.BradleyLead never changed again+330–33
13 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryPackers
49ers2–7Packers
401Total yards521
7.3Yards per play7.6
55%Success rate43%
22%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays10
18First downs25
2Sacks taken3
3Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.2149ers: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.12Packers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.16Packers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.1849ers: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.01Packers: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 55 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Packers’s 69 at 74%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 3, Packers 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's early-down pass rate, 43.5%, is past their previous low of 52.1% in week 2 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 6.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Packers14.3%
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 27.5 points above their season mean of 39.2% and 1.3 times their own 21.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:00 · Packers · 3rd & 6 at SF 16 · gained 16 · +3.46 EP · +20.7% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 81 yards from the GB 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
45%
Yards
922
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1574%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR26+0.6342%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.2475%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0680%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.1614%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.0217%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.4040%
Packers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
49ers6Packers0
49ers7Packers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
49ers7Packers6
49ers7Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 23 to the 49ers 1
Fumble lost1 play
49ers7Packers10
Field goal5 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the 49ers 11
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 45
49ers7Packers16
49ers7Packers17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 21 to the 49ers 9
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
49ers13Packers17
49ers14Packers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 22 to the 49ers 33
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 33 to the 49ers 39
Fumble lost1 play
49ers14Packers20
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 21
49ers20Packers20
49ers21Packers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Packers 30
Punt5 plays
49ers24Packers20
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Packers 26
3rd quarter32 plays
49ers24Packers23
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 30
49ers27Packers23
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Packers 26
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 46
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Packers 48
4th quarter54 plays
49ers30Packers23
Field goal5 plays, from the Packers 47 to the Packers 24
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the 49ers 4
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 4 to the 49ers 13
Punt4 plays
Punt6 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
49ers30Packers29
49ers30Packers30
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 42 to the 49ers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 47 to the Packers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
49ers30Packers33
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 10 to the 49ers 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
