2018 Week 6 · Mon, Oct 15, 2018 · Lambeau Field

San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -9 no coverO 46.5 ✓Packers closed -9, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Green Bay Packers 33–30 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:13, SF +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:13SF — GB SF ball · 3rd & 3SF 70%

(1:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King [21-H.Clinton-Dix] at GB 10. 20-K.King to GB 10 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:13SF +25% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Goodwin INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King [21-H.Clinton-Dix] at GB 10. 20-K.King to GB 10 for no gain (11-M.Goodwin).
Q4 · 7:49SF +17% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling (24-K.Williams).
Q4 · 2:00GB +15% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:15GB +15% win prob(:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 19-E.St. Brown pushed ob at SF 28 for 19 yards (26-G.Mabin).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Packers
Offensive plays	55	69
Total yards	401	521 (edge)
Yards per play	7.3	7.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	0.12
Success rate	55% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	51%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	2/9	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

25/46, 425 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

5.7 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

16/23, 245 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

9.6 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

12 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Matt BreidaRB

14 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

10/16 for 132 yds, 2 TD

36% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Marquise GoodwinWR

4/5 for 126 yds, 2 TD

22% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	9	75	4:01	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 23	6	77	1:42	Touchdown
3	SF	—	1	0	0:09	Fumble
4	GB	SF 34	5	23	1:29	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 26	7	19	2:47	Punt
6	GB	GB 21	6	79	2:54	Touchdown
7	SF	SF 22	5	78	1:31	Touchdown
8	GB	GB 18	9	55	3:04	Punt
9	SF	SF 20	1	21	0:11	Fumble
10	GB	SF 44	9	28	4:38	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 35	5	65	1:29	Touchdown
12	GB	GB 25	5	-5	0:58	Punt
13	SF	SF 40	11	32	5:07	Turnover on downs
14	GB	GB 25	8	42	3:43	Turnover on downs
15	SF	SF 25	10	49	4:18	Turnover on downs
16	GB	GB 25	8	21	3:39	Punt
17	SF	SF 18	10	58	5:12	Turnover on downs
18	GB	GB 25	12	71	5:22	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 4	4	9	2:13	Punt
20	GB	GB 48	4	-9	1:27	Punt
21	SF	SF 23	4	-12	1:06	Punt
22	GB	GB 42	5	58	1:05	Touchdown
23	SF	SF 47	4	7	0:48	Interception
24	GB	GB 10	10	81	1:07	Turnover on downs

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	16/23	245	2	1	2	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	12	87	7.3	0	3.3
Matt Breida	14	61	4.4	1	1.4
C.J. Beathard	3	21	7.0	0	2.0
Marquise Goodwin	1	5	5.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Goodwin	4	5	126	2	22%	11.4
Pierre Garcon	4	6	37	0	26%	0.7
George Kittle	4	6	30	0	26%	0.2
Kyle Juszczyk	3	3	30	0	13%	-3.6
Kendrick Bourne	1	3	22	0	13%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jaquiski Tartt	7	2	0.0
Reuben Foster	8	1	0.0
Adrian Colbert	4	2	0.0
Jimmie Ward	4	1	0.0
Ronald Blair	2	2	1.0
Greg Mabin	3	0	0.0
Arik Armstead	2	0	0.0
DeForest Buckner	1	1	1.0
D.J. Reed	2	0	0.0
Earl Mitchell	1	1	0.0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	25/46	425	2	0	3	5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	8	41	5.1	0	0.8
Aaron Rodgers	3	34	11.3	0	2.5
Jamaal Williams	6	29	4.8	0	0.1
Ty Montgomery	4	12	3.0	1	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	10	16	132	2	36%	4.6
Jimmy Graham	5	9	104	0	20%	2.9
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	3	6	103	0	14%	2.5
Lance Kendricks	2	4	37	0	9%	2.3
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	19	0	2%	1.1
Jamaal Williams	1	3	10	0	7%	-0.3
Ty Montgomery	2	3	10	0	7%	-1.5
J'Mon Moore	1	1	10	0	2%	0.5
Aaron Jones	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Martinez	8	3	0.0	0	0
Kenny Clark	6	1	1.0	0	0
Kentrell Brice	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kyler Fackrell	4	0	0.0	0	0
Clay Matthews	2	2	1.0	0	0
Reggie Gilbert	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin King	3	0	0.0	1	1
Oren Burks	1	2	0.0	0	0
Tramon Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tony Brown	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -9
Closing total: 46.5
SF moneyline: +361
GB moneyline: -420

Packers closed -9, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 63 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Parry
Rest: SF 8 days · GB 8 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Mike McCarthy