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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 at Atlanta Falcons 34. Final.
Falcons -3 ✓O 57.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 6
Atlanta Falcons 34, Buccaneers 29 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:07, 3rd and 10, on Jameis Winston — 24.8 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:07 · 3rd and 10
Jameis Winston
Falcons
(:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 10 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at ATL 8, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at ATL 5. 13-M.Evans to ATL 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at ATL 8.
Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Atlanta Falcons 34–29. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, Falcons +24.8% win probability on one snap.
24.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Austin HooperFalconsQ4 3:29(3:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 47 for 8 yards (54-L.David).
10.9pts
Matt BryantBuccaneersQ4 1:16(1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play.
10.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at +0.31 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 7 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Buccaneers167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 10 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at ATL 8, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at ATL 5. 13-M.Evans to ATL 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at ATL 8.
Swing +24.8 for FalconsExpected points +2.25 for FalconsThe model had Buccaneers 10 points higher than the market did.play 178
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:07TB +25% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 10 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at ATL 8, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at ATL 5. 13-M.Evans to ATL 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at ATL 8.
4th · 3:29ATL +11% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 47 for 8 yards (54-L.David).
4th · 1:16TB +10% win prob(1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play.
2nd · 12:27ATL +9% win prob(12:27) 25-I.Smith left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:52ATL +9% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 25-P.Barber for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:40ATL +9% win prob(11:40) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mohamed Sanu's 35-yard touchdown catch with 8:29 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th1:16Matt Bryant·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+329–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Buccaneers6–3Falcons
510Total yards417
8.1Yards per play6.5
52%Success rate50%
63%Third-down rate62%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays8
29First downs25
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Falcons, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.24Buccaneers: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.23Falcons: +0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.31Buccaneers: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.44Falcons: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Buccaneers: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.19Falcons: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Falcons’s 64 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 6, Falcons 4.
NoteBuccaneers outgained Falcons 510-417 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, +10.5 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 6 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +7.9 pts in week 1.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Falcons8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −2.8 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.5 pts, 6.3 points above their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston up−35% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 10 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at ATL 8, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at ATL 5. 13-M.Evans to ATL 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at ATL 8.
Q4 0:07 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 10 at ATL 21 · gained 11 · -2.25 EP · −34.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 86 yards from the ATL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.16
Success rate
45%
Yards
927
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3976%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.4487%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR13-0.0138%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1560%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3133%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.2171%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Buccaneers6Falcons0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 15
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Buccaneers6Falcons6
Buccaneers6Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 35
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Falcons 49
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Buccaneers 40
2nd quarter51 plays
Buccaneers6Falcons13
Buccaneers6Falcons14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
Buccaneers6Falcons20
Buccaneers6Falcons21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Falcons 42 to the Buccaneers 9
Intercepted8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 45
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 1 to the Falcons 10
Buccaneers12Falcons21
Buccaneers13Falcons21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 48 to the Falcons 10
Buccaneers13Falcons24
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 27
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 22
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Falcons 2
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 20 to the Falcons 38
Buccaneers16Falcons24
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Falcons 11
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 47
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Buccaneers22Falcons24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Buccaneers 39 to the Falcons 9
Buccaneers22Falcons30
Buccaneers22Falcons31
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 6
Buccaneers28Falcons31
Buccaneers29Falcons31
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Falcons 5
Buccaneers29Falcons34
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Buccaneers 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxThree defenders
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Falcons 21
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
57.5
Buccaneers moneyline
+144
Falcons moneyline
-159
Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 57.5; the game landed 63 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 71°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Walt Coleman
Rest
Buccaneers 14 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Dirk Koetter vs Dan Quinn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 8:29
ATL +9% win prob
(8:29) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:43ATL +9% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 84-C.Brate for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ATL-44-V.Beasley, Defensive Offside, declined.
Buccaneerscategory by categoryFalcons
Buccaneers6
Falcons0
