2018 Week 6 · Sun, Oct 14, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -3 ✓O 57.5 ✓Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Atlanta Falcons 34–29. Biggest swing: Q4 0:07, TB +25% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:07TB — ATL TB ball · 3rd & 10ATL 75%

(:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 10 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at ATL 8, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at ATL 5. 13-M.Evans to ATL 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at ATL 8.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:07TB +25% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston up the middle to ATL 10 for 11 yards. FUMBLES, touched at ATL 8, recovered by TB-13-M.Evans at ATL 5. 13-M.Evans to ATL 5 for no gain. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds at ATL 8.
Q4 · 3:29ATL +11% win prob(3:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to TB 47 for 8 yards (54-L.David).
Q4 · 1:16TB +10% win prob(1:16) 3-M.Bryant 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL-3-M.Bryant was injured during the play.
Q2 · 12:27ATL +9% win prob(12:27) 25-I.Smith left guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Falcons
Offensive plays	63	64
Total yards	510 (edge)	417
Yards per play	8.1 (edge)	6.5
Expected points added / play	0.24 (edge)	0.23
Success rate	52% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	73%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31	0.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.19
Third downs	5/8 (edge)	8/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	29 (edge)	25
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Buccaneers outgained Falcons 510–417 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

30/41, 395 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

13.4 expected points added · +12.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

31/41, 355 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.5 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Peyton BarberRB

13 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

10 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-1.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Julio JonesWR

10/14 for 144 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 8.7 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Adam HumphriesWR

3/4 for 82 yds, 0 TD

10% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	10	75	3:24	Touchdown
2	ATL	ATL 25	8	80	3:14	Touchdown
3	TB	TB 19	8	30	3:40	Punt
4	ATL	ATL 14	15	81	7:23	Touchdown
5	TB	TB 25	5	3	1:36	Punt
6	ATL	ATL 42	8	58	3:13	Touchdown
7	TB	TB 25	7	33	2:33	Interception
8	ATL	ATL 1	4	9	1:36	Punt
9	TB	TB 48	8	47	2:55	Touchdown
10	ATL	ATL 25	5	48	0:25	Turnover on downs
11	TB	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
12	ATL	ATL 17	5	-10	1:55	Punt
13	TB	TB 40	4	58	2:28	Interception
14	ATL	ATL 20	7	18	3:50	Punt
15	TB	TB 40	7	43	4:08	Turnover on downs
16	ATL	ATL 25	7	22	2:20	Punt
17	TB	TB 15	8	85	3:45	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 25	12	75	5:06	Touchdown
19	TB	TB 25	11	70	2:41	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 25	9	36	2:37	Turnover on downs
21	TB	TB 24	8	66	1:10	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 85 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	30/41	395	4	2	2	13.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Peyton Barber	13	82	6.3	1.4
Jameis Winston	5	29	5.8	-0.4
DeSean Jackson	1	7	7.0	0.5
Ronald Jones	1	3	3.0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Adam Humphries	3	4	82	0	10%	5.5
DeSean Jackson	4	9	77	0	23%	0.4
O.J. Howard	4	4	62	1	10%	6.0
Mike Evans	4	5	58	0	13%	1.1
Chris Godwin	6	9	56	1	23%	-2.3
Peyton Barber	4	4	24	1	10%	2.5
Ronald Jones	3	3	16	0	8%	0.4
Cameron Brate	1	1	15	1	3%	3.2
Antony Auclair	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kwon Alexander	11	1	0.0	0
Lavonte David	6	0	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	4	2	0.0	0
Ryan Smith	5	0	0.0	0
Brent Grimes	5	0	0.0	0
Adarius Taylor	3	1	0.0	0
Justin Evans	4	0	0.0	0
Vinny Curry	3	0	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	2	0	1.0	0
M.J. Stewart	2	0	0.0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	31/41	355	3	0	1	16.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	10	35	3.5	0	-1.0
Ito Smith	11	22	2.0	1	-2.9
Matt Ryan	1	13	13.0	0	2.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	10	14	144	0	34%	8.7
Austin Hooper	9	10	71	1	24%	4.1
Calvin Ridley	3	3	47	0	7%	3.5
Mohamed Sanu	2	2	46	1	5%	4.6
Justin Hardy	3	7	33	0	17%	-1.8
Russell Gage	1	1	9	0	2%	0.7
Tevin Coleman	1	2	6	1	5%	0.9
Ito Smith	2	2	-1	0	5%	-2.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	7	3	0	0
Brian Poole	5	1	1	2
Jordan Richards	2	3	0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	2	3	0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	1	1	1
Duke Riley	3	1	0	1
Kemal Ishmael	4	0	0	0
Robert Alford	3	0	0	1
Desmond Trufant	3	0	0	0
Bruce Carter	3	0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -3
Closing total: 57.5
TB moneyline: +144
ATL moneyline: -159

Falcons closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 57.5; the game landed 63 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: TB 14 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Dirk Koetter vs Dan Quinn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.