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Game Center
Game Center
2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2018 Week 7
It turned at Q2 11:01, 1st and 10, on Charles Clay — 9.5 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 11:01 · 1st and 10
Charles Clay
Colts
(11:01) (No Huddle) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 85-C.Clay to IND 13 for 9 yards (34-M.Mitchell) [49-M.Adams]. FUMBLES (34-M.Mitchell), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 26. 53-D.Leonard to IND 26 for no gain (73-D.Dawkins). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Indianapolis Colts 37–5 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:01, Colts +9.5% win probability on one snap.
9.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 5 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.41 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.84 expected points per dropback.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Colts won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 9 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
(11:01) (No Huddle) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 85-C.Clay to IND 13 for 9 yards (34-M.Mitchell) [49-M.Adams]. FUMBLES (34-M.Mitchell), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 26. 53-D.Leonard to IND 26 for no gain (73
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Erik Swoope's 17-yard touchdown catch with 13:38 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Erik Swoope17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luck · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+60–6
Billssafetysafetytwo points, and the ball back+25–248 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryColts
Colts ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.84 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 55 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Colts’s 57 at 42%. Red-zone trips: Bills 3, Colts 6.
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's early-down pass rate, 32.6%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.1 points clear of the next team along.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.5 points.
IND's pass rate over expected, −10.2 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
BUF's sack or hit rate turned over: 35.3% in week 6 against 8.3% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
24 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-7.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 55 snaps
Colts-10.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.5 vs their 3.3 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.86× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 15% to 97%
Tendencies room →Bills53.3%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 52.5%, and they swing ±14.6 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 45 early downs
Colts32.6%leaned — ran early · −27.1 vs their 59.7%, and they swing ±14.5 week to week (−1.87× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -52% to 98%
Fourth Down room →Bills—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 23.3%.
Colts25.0%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 21.7%, and they swing ±23.1 week to week (+0.14× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 39%
Tendencies room →Bills8.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Colts18.2%inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.75× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
IND's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 32.6%, 27.1 points below their season mean of 59.7% and 1.9 times their own 14.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
53 dressed · 9 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Indianapolis Colts
53 dressed · 8 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
20/31, 175 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-22.8 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected
Passing · IND
17/23, 156 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected
Receiving · BUF
4/5 for 71 yds, 0 TD
16% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(11:01) (No Huddle) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 85-C.Clay to IND 13 for 9 yards (34-M.Mitchell) [49-M.Adams]. FUMBLES (34-M.Mitchell), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 26. 53-D.Leonard to IND 26 for no gain (73-D.Dawkins). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q2 11:01 · Bills · 1st & 10 at IND 22 · lost 4 · -6.09 EP · −12.5% win probability
148 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 160 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 82 yards from the IND 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bills0
Colts6Bills0Colts12Bills0Colts14Bills0Colts20Bills0Colts21Bills0Colts24Bills3Colts24Bills5Colts24Bills5Colts30Bills5Colts31Bills5Colts37Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 20/31 | 175 | 0 | 3 | 2 | −22.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Marcus Murphy | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 | +3.7 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 5 | 71 | 0 | 16% | −0.2 |
| Zay Jones | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 16% | −4.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tremaine Edmunds | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Hyde |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 17/23 | 156 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Mack |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2018_07_BUF_IND
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| Chris Ivory | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 19% | −0.3 |
| Marcus Murphy | 5 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 19% | −5.4 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 16% | −9.0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | −0.8 |
| Jason Croom | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | +0.0 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Matt Milano | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Phillips | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rafael Bush | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Star Lotulelei | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Gaines | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Davious White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
| 126 |
| 6.6 |
| 1 |
| +7.0 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 0 | +1.0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 | −3.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Rogers | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 17% | +0.7 |
| Marlon Mack | 2 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 13% | +1.7 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 30% | −0.7 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 17% | +6.1 |
| Erik Swoope | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 | 4% | +2.5 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 9% | −3.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Leonard | 11 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Mike Mitchell | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pierre Desir | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kemoko Turay | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabaal Sheard | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Ridgeway | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Moore | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Hairston | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
