2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Buffalo Bills

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

IND -7 ✓U 43.5 ✓DomeColts closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.

Indianapolis Colts 37–5 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 11:01, BUF +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 11:01BUF — IND BUF ball · 1st & 10IND 75%

(11:01) (No Huddle) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 85-C.Clay to IND 13 for 9 yards (34-M.Mitchell) [49-M.Adams]. FUMBLES (34-M.Mitchell), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 26. 53-D.Leonard to IND 26 for no gain (73

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 11:01BUF +9% win prob(11:01) (No Huddle) 3-D.Anderson pass short middle to 85-C.Clay to IND 13 for 9 yards (34-M.Mitchell) [49-M.Adams]. FUMBLES (34-M.Mitchell), RECOVERED by IND-53-D.Leonard at IND 26. 53-D.Leonard to IND 26 for no gain (73-D.Dawkins). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
Q2 · 13:38IND +7% win prob(13:38) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 86-E.Swoope for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 12:07IND +6% win prob(12:07) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 18-A.Holmes to BUF 34 for 13 yards (27-N.Hairston) [57-K.Turay].
Q2 · 9:35IND +5% win prob(9:35) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 25-M.Mack for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Colts
Offensive plays	55	57
Total yards	303	382 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.49	0.27 (edge)
Success rate	40%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	42%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.84	0.41 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	2/9	7/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	11 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	5	0 (edge)

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.49.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Derek AndersonQB

20/31, 175 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-22.8 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Andrew LuckQB

17/23, 156 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Marlon MackRB

19 att, 126 yds, 1 TD

7.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Chris IvoryRB

16 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Kelvin BenjaminWR

4/5 for 71 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Chester RogersWR

4/4 for 40 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 0.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	5	9	1:49	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 20	9	30	4:41	Punt
3	IND	IND 10	4	6	1:40	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 23	4	4	1:26	Punt
5	IND	IND 25	14	85	6:53	Touchdown
6	BUF	BUF 25	6	49	2:37	Fumble
7	IND	IND 26	4	62	1:29	Touchdown
8	BUF	BUF 27	5	18	2:09	Punt
9	IND	IND 18	10	72	5:35	Touchdown
10	BUF	BUF 25	5	27	1:28	Interception
11	IND	BUF 32	3	14	0:13	Turnover on downs
12	BUF	BUF 28	13	56	7:18	Turnover on downs
13	IND	IND 25	9	38	5:03	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 16	6	25	2:14	Punt
15	IND	IND 13	1	0	0:05	Turnover on downs
16	BUF	BUF 29	4	2	0:36	Fumble
17	IND	BUF 2	4	2	1:31	Touchdown
18	BUF	BUF 25	8	58	2:20	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 17	9	35	4:42	Punt
20	BUF	BUF 8	2	5	0:39	Interception
21	IND	BUF 20	2	20	0:06	Touchdown
22	BUF	BUF 25	5	29	1:13	Interception
23	IND	IND 31	7	39	4:13	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 85 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Anderson	20/31	175	0	3	2	-22.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Ivory	16	81	5.1	-1.7
Marcus Murphy	4	53	13.3	3.7
LeSean McCoy	2	1	0.5	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kelvin Benjamin	4	5	71	16%	-0.2
Zay Jones	3	5	27	16%	-4.6
Chris Ivory	3	6	25	19%	-0.3
Marcus Murphy	5	6	17	19%	-5.4
Charles Clay	3	5	14	16%	-9.0
Andre Holmes	1	2	13	6%	-0.8
Jason Croom	1	2	8	6%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Taron Johnson	6	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	6	0	1
Jordan Poyer	3	2	0
Micah Hyde	5	0	0
Matt Milano	4	0	0
Jordan Phillips	3	0	0
Rafael Bush	2	1	0
Star Lotulelei	2	0	0
Phillip Gaines	2	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andrew Luck	17/23	156	4	0	0	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marlon Mack	19	126	6.6	1	7.0
Nyheim Miller-Hines	5	47	9.4	0	1.0
Jordan Wilkins	6	46	7.7	0	2.1
Andrew Luck	3	5	1.7	0	-3.7
Jacoby Brissett	4	-4	-1.0	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chester Rogers	4	4	40	0	17%	0.7
Marlon Mack	2	3	33	1	13%	1.7
Eric Ebron	3	7	31	0	30%	-0.7
T.Y. Hilton	4	4	25	2	17%	6.1
Erik Swoope	1	1	17	1	4%	2.5
Jordan Wilkins	1	1	8	0	4%	1.3
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	7	0	4%	0.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	1	2	-5	0	9%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	11	5	0.0	0	0
Kenny Moore	5	2	0.0	1	2
Mike Mitchell	6	0	0.0	1	1
Pierre Desir	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kemoko Turay	3	0	1.0	0	0
Jabaal Sheard	2	0	1.0	0	0
Hassan Ridgeway	2	0	0.0	0	0
Corey Moore	0	1	0.0	1	1
Zach Pascal	1	0	0.0	0	0
Nate Hairston	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -7
Closing total: 43.5
BUF moneyline: +258
IND moneyline: -293

Colts closed -7 and covered, winning by 32.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 42 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BUF 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Frank Reich