2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field

Carolina PanthersWinner

Philadelphia Eagles

PHI -5 upsetU 45 ✓19 mph windEagles closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:31, CAR +47% win probability on one snap. Played in 19 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:31CAR — PHI PHI ball · 4th & 2CAR 50%

(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:31CAR +47% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Q4 · 1:17PHI +29% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play.
Q4 · 2:06PHI +26% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith to PHI 34 for 35 yards (31-J.Mills) [77-M.Bennett].
Q4 · 1:45PHI +15% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at PHI 4 for 22 yards (53-N.Bradham, 58-J.Hicks).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Eagles
Offensive plays	58	65
Total yards	374 (edge)	342
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.25 (edge)	0.10
Success rate	53% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	78%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23 (edge)	0.16
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	0.00
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20	20
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PHI

Carson WentzQB

30/37, 310 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +16.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

25/39, 269 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

7 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

3.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Wendell SmallwoodRB

9 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PHI

Zach ErtzTE

9/11 for 138 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 9.2 expected points added

Receiving · PHI

Alshon JefferyWR

7/10 for 88 yds, 1 TD

27% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PHI	PHI 25	5	-10	1:38	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 41	6	15	2:15	Punt
3	PHI	PHI 20	14	76	8:21	Turnover on downs
4	CAR	CAR 26	6	7	2:23	Punt
5	PHI	PHI 26	9	75	3:44	Touchdown
6	CAR	CAR 35	5	7	1:42	Punt
7	PHI	PHI 12	6	65	3:21	Turnover on downs
8	CAR	CAR 25	8	54	4:26	Punt
9	PHI	PHI 4	6	16	2:10	End of half
10	CAR	CAR 24	12	53	4:59	Punt
11	PHI	PHI 6	18	98	9:22	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 20	13	80	4:58	Touchdown
13	PHI	PHI 30	8	22	3:49	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 13	8	89	2:44	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 25	5	0	1:51	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 31	11	69	0:55	Touchdown
17	PHI	PHI 30	5	0	1:01	Fumble
18	CAR	CAR 22	1	0	0:21	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 98 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	25/39	269	2	0	2	7.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	7	49	7.0	0	3.7
Jarius Wright	1	34	34.0	0	2.1
Christian McCaffrey	7	29	4.1	0	0.0
Curtis Samuel	2	9	4.5	1	1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Devin Funchess	6	11	62	1	30%	2.9
Torrey Smith	4	6	61	0	16%	4.2
Christian McCaffrey	6	6	51	0	16%	2.5
Jarius Wright	2	2	37	0	5%	3.5
D.J. Moore	3	5	29	0	14%	1.0
Curtis Samuel	1	1	16	0	3%	1.9
Damiere Byrd	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Greg Olsen	2	5	5	1	14%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Luke Kuechly	9	2	1.0	0
Eric Reid	6	3	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	6	3	0.0	0
Mike Adams	3	3	0.0	2
Thomas Davis	3	2	0.0	0
James Bradberry	4	0	0.0	1
Kyle Love	3	0	0.0	0
Vernon Butler	1	2	0.0	0
Rashaan Gaulden	3	0	0.0	0
Wes Horton	1	2	0.0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Carson Wentz	30/37	310	2	0	4	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Wendell Smallwood	9	32	3.6	0.7
Josh Adams	4	17	4.3	-0.8
Corey Clement	8	6	0.8	-3.7
Carson Wentz	3	3	1.0	3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	9	11	138	0	30%	9.2
Alshon Jeffery	7	10	88	1	27%	5.0
Dallas Goedert	4	5	43	1	14%	3.1
Nelson Agholor	6	7	20	0	19%	-3.3
Corey Clement	2	2	16	0	5%	0.7
Wendell Smallwood	2	2	5	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jordan Hicks	4	4	0.0	0
Jalen Mills	6	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	4	2	0.0	2
Nigel Bradham	3	1	0.0	0
Ronald Darby	4	0	0.0	3
Avonte Maddox	2	1	0.0	0
Michael Bennett	1	1	1.0	0
Brandon Graham	1	1	0.5	0
Fletcher Cox	1	1	0.0	0
Dexter McDougle	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PHI -5
Closing total: 45
CAR moneyline: +202
PHI moneyline: -226

Eagles closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 45; the game landed 38 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 49°F, wind 19 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CAR 7 days · PHI 10 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Doug Pederson

Wind at 19 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.