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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
PanthersCarolina21
BY 4final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia17
Carolina Panthers 21 at Philadelphia Eagles 17. Final.
Eagles -5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Carolina Panthers 21, Eagles 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:31, 4th and 2, on Carson Wentz — 46.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:31 · 4th and 2
Carson Wentz
Panthers
(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
U 45 ✓
17 mph wind
Eagles closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:31, Panthers +46.7% win probability on one snap. Played in 17 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
46.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Torrey SmithPanthersQ4 2:06(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith to PHI 34 for 35 yards (31-J.Mills) [77-M.Bennett].
26.3pts
Carson WentzEaglesQ4 1:17(1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play.
28.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Panthers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Eagles at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Panthers won this one — 53% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Eagles at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Eagles at +0.00 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Eagles at 3 of 12 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Panthers154 of 161 plays carry both curves
(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Swing −46.7 for EaglesExpected points −2.76 for EaglesThe model had Panthers 5 points higher than the market did.play 159
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:31CAR +47% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
4th · 1:17PHI +29% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Jeffery. PENALTY on CAR-24-J.Bradberry, Defensive Pass Interference, 48 yards, enforced at PHI 30 - No Play.
4th · 2:06PHI +26% win prob(2:06) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-T.Smith to PHI 34 for 35 yards (31-J.Mills) [77-M.Bennett].
4th · 1:45PHI +15% win prob(1:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey pushed ob at PHI 4 for 22 yards (53-N.Bradham, 58-J.Hicks).
4th · 1:26PHI +13% win prob(1:26) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:13PHI +10% win prob(4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 17-D.Funchess for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Olsen's 1-yard touchdown catch with 1:26 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Panthers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.25Panthers: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.10Eagles: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Panthers: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.16Eagles: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Panthers: +0.33 expected points added per play
+0.00Eagles: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 58 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Eagles’s 65 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 3, Eagles 4.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's early-down pass rate, 75.6%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 4.7 points clear of the next team along.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.8 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonFourth Down
PHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 6.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.5 points.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
CAR's pass rate over expected, +10.3 pts, is past their previous high of +5.8 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.92× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Eagles13.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 46.9 points above their season mean of 33.1% and 1.8 times their own 26.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Wentz sacked−41% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:31) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at CAR 19 for -5 yards (90-J.Peppers). FUMBLES (90-J.Peppers), RECOVERED by CAR-93-K.Love at CAR 22. 93-K.Love to CAR 22 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
Q4 0:31 · Eagles · 4th & 2 at CAR 14 · lost 8 · -2.76 EP · −41.3% win probability
152 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 94 yards from the PHI 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.10
Success rate
43%
Yards
715
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.2476%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.2568%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.3759%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.5850%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Eagles 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Drive ended13 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Panthers 25
No good2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 26 to the Panthers 41
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter38 plays
Panthers0Eagles6
Panthers0Eagles7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Panthers 9
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 42
Panthers0Eagles10
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Panthers 27
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Eagles 21
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 14
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Eagles 26
Panthers0Eagles16
Panthers0Eagles17
Touchdown19 plays, from the Eagles 6 to the Panthers 1
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Panthers6Eagles17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Eagles 14
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Panthers 48
Panthers12Eagles17
Panthers14Eagles17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Eagles 18
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, two backs and two tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, four linebackers and one backRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEleven defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Panthers20Eagles17
Panthers21Eagles17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Eagles 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Panthers 14
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Pantherscategory by categoryEagles
Panthers0
Eagles6
