2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -6.5 ✓U 56 ✓Chiefs closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Kansas City Chiefs 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 2:00, KC +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 2:00CIN — KC KC ball · 3rd & 6KC 91%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 2:00KC +5% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 7:29KC +4% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 6:39KC +4% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green to CIN 45 for 30 yards (38-R.Parker).
Q1 · 0:44CIN +4% win prob(:44) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Chiefs
Offensive plays	54	70
Total yards	239	551 (edge)
Yards per play	4.4	7.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.30	0.38 (edge)
Success rate	35%	57% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.53 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.43	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	4/11	9/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	31 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

28/39, 358 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

20.8 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Andy DaltonQB

15/29, 148 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-11.2 expected points added · -10.8% completion over expected

Rushing · KC

Kareem HuntRB

15 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Spencer WareRB

8 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

A.J. GreenWR

7/14 for 117 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · -3.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

5/5 for 95 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	5	7	1:34	Punt
2	KC	KC 5	11	95	5:18	Touchdown
3	CIN	CIN 9	10	41	4:33	Punt
4	KC	KC 22	7	48	2:56	Turnover on downs
5	CIN	CIN 43	4	6	0:48	Turnover on downs
6	KC	CIN 32	5	32	1:33	Touchdown
7	CIN	CIN 23	13	82	5:53	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 23	12	72	5:30	Touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 40	5	3	0:42	Punt
10	KC	KC 20	8	72	1:05	Turnover on downs
11	CIN	—	1	0	0:08	End of half
12	KC	KC 25	9	75	3:41	Touchdown
13	CIN	CIN 25	2	0	0:09	Defensive touchdown
14	CIN	CIN 25	11	50	4:54	Turnover on downs
15	KC	KC 25	3	2	0:56	Interception
16	CIN	CIN 48	4	-11	2:21	Punt
17	KC	KC 18	13	68	5:09	Touchdown
18	CIN	CIN 25	5	7	1:01	Punt
19	KC	KC 10	12	87	7:35	Turnover on downs
20	CIN	CIN 3	9	54	4:14	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 95 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	15/29	148	1	1	2	-11.2
Jeff Driskel	4/4	39	0	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Joe Mixon	13	50	3.8	-2.1
Mark Walton	4	10	2.5	-2.3
Jeff Driskel	1	5	5.0	0.1
Clayton Fejedelem	1	0	0.0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	7	14	117	0	44%	-3.4
Cody Core	3	3	30	0	9%	2.0
Tyler Boyd	3	4	27	0	13%	1.4
C.J. Uzomah	2	2	13	1	6%	3.1
Joe Mixon	3	5	1	0	16%	-4.5
Matt Lengel	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
John Ross	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5
Alex Erickson	1	2	-1	0	6%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shawn Williams	10	3	0.0	1	1
Jessie Bates	7	5	0.0	0	0
Jordan Evans	4	2	0.0	0	0
Preston Brown	3	2	0.0	0	0
Andrew Billings	5	0	1.0	0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	2	2	0.0	0	0
William Jackson	1	1	0.0	0	2
Jordan Willis	2	0	0.0	0	0
Malik Jefferson	2	0	0.0	0	0
Carlos Dunlap	1	1	1.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	28/39	358	4	1	2	20.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	15	86	5.7	1	4.0
Spencer Ware	8	59	7.4	0	-1.7
Patrick Mahomes	4	45	11.3	0	3.9
Tyreek Hill	2	8	4.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	5	5	95	0	14%	7.1
Sammy Watkins	4	7	74	0	19%	2.5
Tyreek Hill	7	10	68	1	28%	2.2
Kareem Hunt	5	6	55	2	17%	4.7
Spencer Ware	3	3	30	0	8%	2.1
Demetrius Harris	1	2	17	1	6%	3.0
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	13	0	6%	1.1
Chris Conley	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Orlando Scandrick	5	1	0.0	1
Dorian O'Daniel	4	0	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	1.0	0
Jordan Lucas	2	1	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	2	1	0.0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	0	0.0	1
Derrick Nnadi	3	0	0.0	0
Anthony Hitchens	3	0	0.0	0
Josh Shaw	2	0	0.0	0
Charvarius Ward	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -6.5
Closing total: 56
CIN moneyline: +240
KC moneyline: -271

Chiefs closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 56; the game landed 55 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 59°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: CIN 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Marvin Lewis vs Andy Reid