For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Bengals162 of 170 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +4.5 for ChiefsExpected points +3.47 for ChiefsThe model had Bengals 5 points higher than the market did.play 78
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:00KC +5% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 84-D.Harris for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:29KC +4% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:39KC +4% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green to CIN 45 for 30 yards (38-R.Parker).
1st · 0:44CIN +4% win prob(:44) 7-H.Butker 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
1st · 8:53KC +3% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to CIN 6 for 21 yards (58-C.Lawson; 36-S.Williams).
1st · 2:17KC +3% win prob(2:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at CIN 28 for 43 yards (36-S.Williams).
2nd · 14:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kareem Hunt's 6-yard touchdown catch with 8:15 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:15Kareem Hunt·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+70–7
2nd13:28Kareem Hunt·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+70–14
2nd7:29C.J. Uzomah·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+77–14
2nd2:00Demetrius Harris·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+77–21
2nd0:11Harrison Butker·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+37–24
3rd6:20Randy Bullock·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+310–38
4th12:56Tyreek Hill·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+710–45
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryChiefs
Bengals0–7Chiefs
239Total yards551
4.4Yards per play7.9
35%Success rate57%
36%Third-down rate75%
1Red-zone touchdowns5
4Explosive plays12
13First downs31
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.30Bengals: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.38Chiefs: +0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Bengals: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.53Chiefs: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.43Bengals: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.14Chiefs: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 54 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 70 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Chiefs 7.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.38 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Chiefs8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 29.2 points below their season mean of 29.2% and 1.1 times their own 26.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 7 never used
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%57 snaps
65Clint BolingG · Every snap100%57 snaps
62Alex RedmondG · Every snap100%57 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
77Cordy GlennOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Full-time98%56 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Full-time96%55 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Full-time84%48 snaps
18A.J. GreenWR · Full-time81%46 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation77%44 snaps
15John RossWR · Rotational49%28 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Rotational35%20 snaps
16Cody CoreWR · Rotational25%14 snaps
32Mark WaltonHB · Situational23%13 snaps
6Jeff DriskelQB · Situational16%9 snaps
89Matt LengelTE · Situational9%5 snaps
86Mason SchreckTE · Situational4%2 snaps
74Jake FisherOT · Situational4%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Billy PriceCDarqueze DennardCBJosh TupouDTGiovani BernardHBNick VigilOLBTyler KroftTEJosh MaloneWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+6% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at CIN 28 for 43 yards (36-S.Williams).
Q1 2:17 · Chiefs · 3rd & 3 at KC 29 · gained 43 · +3.72 EP · +6.3% win probability
160 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 95 yards from the KC 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
46%
Yards
790
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.3163%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.4267%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.2855%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.8840%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
Bengals0Chiefs6
Bengals0Chiefs7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to the Bengals 6
Punt12 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Chiefs 48
No good8 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Bengals 28
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Punt3 plays
Bengals0Chiefs13
Bengals0Chiefs14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 15
Bengals6Chiefs14
Bengals7Chiefs14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Chiefs 4
Bengals7Chiefs20
Bengals7Chiefs21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Bengals 17
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 40 to the Bengals 43
Bengals7Chiefs24
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Bengals 8
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Bengals7Chiefs30
Bengals7Chiefs31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Bengals 2
Bengals7Chiefs37
Touchdown2 plays
Bengals7Chiefs38
Bengals10Chiefs38
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Chiefs 15
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Chiefs 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 42
4th quarter34 plays
Bengals10Chiefs44
Bengals10Chiefs45
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Bengals 3
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Bengals 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Chiefs 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
