2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium

Cleveland Browns

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -3.5 no coverU 52.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:55, TB +55% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 1:55CLE — TB TB ball · 4th & 15CLE 55%

(1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 1:55TB +55% win prob(1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Q4 · 0:04CLE +41% win prob(:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
OT · 3:27TB +36% win prob(3:27) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CLE 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 38 for 14 yards (82-A.Auclair). FUMBLES (82-A.Auclair), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at CLE 48. 39-I.Johnson to CLE 48 for no gain (82-O.Charles).
OT · 4:18TB +35% win prob(4:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	62	87
Total yards	305	457 (edge)
Yards per play	4.9	5.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.13	-0.11 (edge)
Success rate	40%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	-0.22 (edge)
Third downs	3/14	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	4 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Buccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

32/52, 365 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-5.7 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

23/34, 215 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

-2.2 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

18 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Jameis WinstonQB

10 att, 55 yds, 1 TD

5.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

7/11 for 107 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.4 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

10/15 for 97 yds, 1 TD

45% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	10	19	4:30	Punt
2	TB	TB 1	2	-1	1:12	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 19	5	7	1:50	Punt
4	TB	TB 28	11	52	4:26	Turnover on downs
5	CLE	CLE 25	5	2	1:24	Punt
6	TB	TB 45	7	55	1:44	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 35	5	2	1:34	Punt
8	TB	TB 25	11	76	5:22	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 25	7	41	3:40	Punt
10	TB	TB 20	4	36	1:59	Interception
11	CLE	CLE 25	4	-6	0:42	Punt
12	TB	TB 1	3	26	0:47	Fumble
13	CLE	TB 19	4	9	0:32	Turnover on downs
14	TB	TB 10	1	0	0:18	End of half
15	TB	TB 25	3	4	0:37	Fumble
16	CLE	TB 26	4	26	1:22	Touchdown
17	TB	TB 25	9	27	2:32	Punt
18	CLE	CLE 8	7	20	3:31	Punt
19	TB	TB 27	14	73	6:30	Touchdown
20	CLE	CLE 25	9	51	3:11	Touchdown
21	TB	TB 25	8	15	2:45	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 20	10	104	4:37	Turnover on downs
23	TB	TB 1	4	4	2:19	Punt
24	CLE	TB 16	2	16	0:08	Touchdown
25	TB	TB 25	10	58	2:28	Turnover on downs
26	CLE	CLE 25	5	14	1:22	Punt
27	TB	TB 11	5	28	2:23	Interception
28	CLE	TB 45	4	0	2:04	Punt
29	TB	TB 20	4	2	0:59	Punt
30	TB	CLE 48	6	2	1:22	Turnover on downs

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 104 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	23/34	215	2	0	5	-2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	18	80	4.4	1	-0.9
Baker Mayfield	4	43	10.8	0	-4.1
Duke Johnson	1	-4	-4.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	10	15	97	1	45%	4.2
David Njoku	4	6	52	1	18%	2.0
Damion Ratley	3	3	23	0	9%	0.0
Duke Johnson	4	4	23	0	12%	0.4
Antonio Callaway	1	2	14	0	6%	1.5
Breshad Perriman	1	1	6	0	3%	-0.5
Nick Chubb	0	2	0	0	6%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Damarious Randall	11	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Kirksey	7	3	0.0	1	1
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	10	0	0.0	0	1
Jabrill Peppers	6	1	0.0	0	1
Emmanuel Ogbah	4	1	1.5	0	2
Jamie Collins	4	1	0.0	1	1
T.J. Carrie	4	0	0.0	0	0
Denzel Ward	3	0	0.0	0	2
Tanner Vallejo	2	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Garrett	2	0	2.0	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jameis Winston	32/52	365	0	2	4	-5.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jameis Winston	10	55	5.5	1	5.5
Peyton Barber	11	30	2.7	0	-2.9
Ronald Jones	6	13	2.2	1	-0.8
DeSean Jackson	2	8	4.0	1	0.7
Jacquizz Rodgers	3	8	2.7	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	7	11	107	21%	6.4
O.J. Howard	5	9	67	17%	-1.1
Chris Godwin	5	6	59	12%	-0.3
Adam Humphries	4	9	37	17%	-0.7
DeSean Jackson	2	4	25	8%	-1.6
Cameron Brate	3	4	23	8%	-5.3
Ronald Jones	1	1	15	2%	1.0
Antony Auclair	3	3	15	6%	-0.1
Jacquizz Rodgers	1	1	11	2%	0.6
Alan Cross	1	2	6	4%	0.6
Peyton Barber	0	2	0	4%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	6	1	0.0	0
Kwon Alexander	5	2	0.0	1
Justin Evans	2	3	0.0	0
Adarius Taylor	3	2	1.0	0
M.J. Stewart	3	1	0.0	0
Brent Grimes	2	1	0.0	1
Isaiah Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Jameis Winston	2	0	0.0	0
Devante Bond	2	0	0.0	0
Carl Nassib	2	0	2.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -3.5
Closing total: 52.5
CLE moneyline: +163
TB moneyline: -181

Buccaneers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 49 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: CLE 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Hue Jackson vs Dirk Koetter