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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland23
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay26
Cleveland Browns 23 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26. Final.
Buccaneers -3.5 no coverU 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26, Browns 23 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 1:55, 4th and 15, on Chandler Catanzaro — 54.5 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 1:55 · 4th and 15
Chandler Catanzaro
Buccaneers
(1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Buccaneers closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–23 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 1:55, Buccaneers +54.5% win probability on one snap.
54.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Chandler CatanzaroBrownsQ4 0:04(:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
41.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetBuccaneersOT 3:27(3:27) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CLE 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 38 for 14 yards (82-A.Auclair). FUMBLES (82-A.Auclair), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at CLE 48. 39-I.Johnson to CLE 48 for no gain (82-O.Charles).
36.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 14 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 6 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Browns at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Browns203 of 215 plays carry both curves
(1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Swing +54.5 for BuccaneersExpected points +2.97 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 214
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 1:55TB +55% win prob(1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
4th · 0:04CLE +41% win prob(:04) 7-C.Catanzaro 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
Overtime · 3:27TB +36% win prob(3:27) 9-B.Anger punts 54 yards to CLE 24, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 38 for 14 yards (82-A.Auclair). FUMBLES (82-A.Auclair), RECOVERED by TB-39-I.Johnson at CLE 48. 39-I.Johnson to CLE 48 for no gain (82-O.Charles).
Overtime · 4:18TB +35% win prob(4:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.
Overtime · 4:58CLE +30% win prob(4:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 45 for -7 yards (94-C.Nassib).
Overtime · 8:51TB +30% win prob(8:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to TB 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-A.Humphries to TB 11 for -6 yards (54-T.Vallejo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chandler Catanzaro's 59-yard field goal with 1:55 left in overtime put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:22Trevon Coley·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+22–0
1st3:04Chandler Catanzaro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.Sanborn+32–3
2nd15:00DeSean Jackson·14-yd TD run14-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+62–9
Overtime1:55Chandler Catanzaro·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap G.SanbornLead never changed again+323–26
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Browns1–7Buccaneers
305Total yards457
4.9Yards per play5.3
40%Success rate46%
21%Third-down rate46%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays9
15First downs29
5Sacks taken4
0Turnovers4
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.13Browns: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.11Buccaneers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Browns: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.07Buccaneers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.30Browns: −0.30 expected points added per play
−0.22Buccaneers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 87 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Browns 6, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +14.0 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +11.5 pts in week 3.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 6.
87 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.29× that swing) · 63 dropbacks
Buccaneers11.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.0 pts, 9.4 points above their season mean of 4.6 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
Chandler Catanzaro+55% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:55) 7-C.Catanzaro 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.
OT 1:55 · Buccaneers · 4th & 15 at CLE 41 · gained nothing · +2.97 EP · +54.5% win probability
201 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 215 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 215 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 79 yards from the CLE 20 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
215 of 215 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
215
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
41%
Yards
761
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR58-0.0969%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0267%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1158%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0567%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3571%
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.9943%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.9933%
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
215 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
215 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Buccaneers 49
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Browns2Buccaneers0
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Browns 21
Browns2Buccaneers3
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Browns 20
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 28
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Browns 24
2nd quarter48 plays
Browns2Buccaneers9
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 37
Browns2Buccaneers15
Browns2Buccaneers16
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Browns 4
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Buccaneers 49
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Browns 44
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 28
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Buccaneers 1 to the Buccaneers 17
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 11
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 29
Browns8Buccaneers16
Browns9Buccaneers16
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Buccaneers 15
Punt13 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Browns 28
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 34
Browns9Buccaneers22
Browns9Buccaneers23
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Browns 2
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Browns15Buccaneers23
Browns16Buccaneers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 31 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 1 to the Buccaneers 9
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Browns22Buccaneers23
Browns23Buccaneers23
Touchdown2 plays
No good14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Browns 21
Overtime29 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 45 to the Buccaneers 38
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Browns23Buccaneers26
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 36
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
