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Dallas Cowboys 17 at Washington Commanders 20. Final.
Cowboys -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Washington Commanders 20, Cowboys 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:03, 2nd and 13, on Brett Maher — 26.9 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:03 · 2nd and 13
Brett Maher
Commanders
(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
U 40.5 ✓
Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, Commanders +26.9% win probability on one snap.
26.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCowboysQ4 1:18(1:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson; 48-K.Ladler).
19.2pts
Cole BeasleyCowboysQ4 0:59(:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at WAS 46 for 18 yards (31-F.Moreau) [94-P.Smith]. WAS-31-F.Moreau was injured during the play.
16.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 2 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 14 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 12 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys162 of 173 plays carry both curves
(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Swing +26.9 for CommandersExpected points +1.84 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:03DAL +27% win prob(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
4th · 1:18DAL +19% win prob(1:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson; 48-K.Ladler).
4th · 0:59WAS +16% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at WAS 46 for 18 yards (31-F.Moreau) [94-P.Smith]. WAS-31-F.Moreau was injured during the play.
4th · 5:02DAL +14% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 0 for -10 yards (91-R.Kerrigan). FUMBLES (91-R.Kerrigan) [91-R.Kerrigan], RECOVERED by WAS-94-P.Smith at DAL 1. 94-P.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:38WAS +13% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left to 86-J.Reed to DAL 9 for 27 yards (38-J.Heath).
2nd · 1:07WAS +13% win prob(1:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 21-yard field goal with 9:13 left in the 3rd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:28Kapri Bibbs·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex Smith+70–7
2nd1:07Michael Gallup·49-yd TD catch49-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescottfrom Dak Prescott+77–7
3rd9:13Dustin Hopkins·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.SundbergLead never changed again+37–10
4th12:38Dustin Hopkins·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+37–13
4th9:50Brett Maher·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.Ladouceur+310–13
Cowboys ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Cowboys: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.06Commanders: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Cowboys: +0.07 expected points added per play
+0.18Commanders: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Cowboys: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.30Commanders: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 61 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Commanders’s 58 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 2, Commanders 3.
NoteCowboys outgained Commanders 323-305 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.5% in week 6 against 20.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±3.8 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Commanders20.5%
inside their normal wobble · +5.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 68.9%, 13.8 points above their season mean of 55.1% and 1.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Brett Maher−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 0:03 · Cowboys · 2nd & 13 at WAS 34 · gained nothing · -1.84 EP · −26.4% win probability
160 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 83 yards from the DAL 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
36%
Yards
628
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.1269%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1451%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1940%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2650%
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0340%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Commanders0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 29
Cowboys0Commanders6
Cowboys0Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Cowboys 23
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 44
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 42
Punt9 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Cowboys 47
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Cowboys 49
Punt10 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 47
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Cowboys6Commanders7
Cowboys7Commanders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Commanders 49
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 39
3rd quarter31 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Cowboys7Commanders10
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 31
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 48
Punt4 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 49 to the Cowboys 33
4th quarter59 plays
Cowboys7Commanders13
Field goal5 plays, from the Cowboys 29 to the Cowboys 7
Cowboys10Commanders13
Field goal7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 29
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 45
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Cowboys10Commanders19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys10Commanders20
Cowboys16Commanders20
Cowboys17Commanders20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Commanders 1
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 36 to the Commanders 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -1.5
Closing total
40.5
Cowboys moneyline
-126
Commanders moneyline
+114
Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 37 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; breezy at 13 mph out of the north-west; clear.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Jay Gruden
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 12:02WAS +11% win prob(12:02) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 17-A.Hurns pushed ob at WAS 36 for 33 yards (54-M.Foster).
4th · 5:37DAL +9% win prob(5:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 16 yards (31-F.Moreau). PENALTY on DAL-52-C.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 20 - No Play.
