2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · FedExField

Dallas Cowboys

Washington CommandersWinner

DAL -1.5 upsetU 40.5 ✓Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:03, DAL +27% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:03DAL — WAS DAL ball · 2nd & 13WAS 73%

(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:03DAL +27% win prob(:03) 2-B.Maher 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
Q4 · 1:18DAL +19% win prob(1:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to DAL 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 36 for 5 yards (52-R.Anderson; 48-K.Ladler).
Q4 · 0:59WAS +16% win prob(:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley pushed ob at WAS 46 for 18 yards (31-F.Moreau) [94-P.Smith]. WAS-31-F.Moreau was injured during the play.
Q4 · 5:02DAL +14% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 0 for -10 yards (91-R.Kerrigan). FUMBLES (91-R.Kerrigan) [91-R.Kerrigan], RECOVERED by WAS-94-P.Smith at DAL 1. 94-P.Smith for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Commanders
Offensive plays	61	58
Total yards	323 (edge)	305
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.06
Success rate	43% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	72%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.30 (edge)
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	3/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Cowboys outgained Commanders 323–305 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

22/35, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

14/25, 178 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.7 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Adrian PetersonRB

24 att, 99 yds, 0 TD

-5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

6 att, 33 yds, 1 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Michael GallupWR

3/5 for 81 yds, 1 TD

14% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Allen HurnsWR

5/6 for 74 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DAL	DAL 25	5	4	1:28	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 48	7	47	3:13	Touchdown
3	DAL	DAL 25	6	14	2:58	Fumble
4	WAS	DAL 45	4	13	1:30	Punt
5	DAL	DAL 15	8	32	4:40	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 20	7	33	4:29	Punt
7	DAL	DAL 16	9	29	5:15	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 34	6	13	2:41	Punt
9	DAL	DAL 17	7	83	2:46	Touchdown
10	WAS	WAS 25	9	26	1:00	Turnover on downs
11	WAS	WAS 25	11	72	5:50	Turnover on downs
12	DAL	DAL 25	5	6	1:36	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 28	6	20	3:28	Punt
14	DAL	DAL 11	4	-2	1:43	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 49	8	54	4:48	Turnover on downs
16	DAL	DAL 25	7	46	2:49	Turnover on downs
17	WAS	WAS 25	8	20	3:28	Punt
18	DAL	DAL 14	3	-3	1:23	Defensive touchdown
19	DAL	DAL 26	14	79	3:18	Touchdown
20	WAS	WAS 25	5	7	0:28	Punt
21	DAL	DAL 36	7	35	1:09	Turnover on downs

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 83 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Dak Prescott	22/35	273	1	0	4	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dak Prescott	6	33	5.5	1	0.4
Ezekiel Elliott	15	33	2.2	0	-3.8
Jourdan Lewis	1	7	7.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Gallup	3	5	81	1	14%	6.2
Allen Hurns	5	6	74	0	17%	3.8
Cole Beasley	7	8	56	0	23%	2.1
Geoff Swaim	3	3	25	0	9%	0.1
Blake Jarwin	1	1	16	0	3%	3.5
Dalton Schultz	1	3	12	0	9%	-0.2
Ezekiel Elliott	2	6	9	0	17%	-4.2
Rico Gathers	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6
Deonte Thompson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Brice Butler	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Demarcus Lawrence	4	3	0
Sean Lee	5	1	0
Antwaun Woods	3	2	0
Jaylon Smith	3	1	0
Leighton Vander Esch	3	1	0
Byron Jones	2	2	0
Anthony Brown	3	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	3	0	1
Tyrone Crawford	1	2	0
Jeff Heath	2	1	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	14/25	178	1	0	1	6.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Adrian Peterson	24	99	4.1	-5.4
Alex Smith	4	16	4.0	-2.7
Kapri Bibbs	2	13	6.5	-0.7
Samaje Perine	2	2	1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kapri Bibbs	4	5	43	1	21%	2.6
Jordan Reed	2	4	43	0	17%	2.9
Josh Doctson	3	6	42	0	25%	2.8
Maurice Harris	3	3	22	0	13%	-0.5
Michael Floyd	1	3	20	0	13%	0.4
Adrian Peterson	1	2	8	0	8%	0.6
Jeremy Sprinkle	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Mason Foster	5	3	0.0	0
Zach Brown	6	1	0.0	0
Fabian Moreau	3	2	0.0	0
Ryan Kerrigan	4	1	2.0	1
Daron Payne	1	3	0.0	1
Josh Norman	4	0	0.0	0
D.J. Swearinger	3	1	0.0	0
Greg Stroman	3	0	0.0	0
Jonathan Allen	1	1	1.0	0
Ryan Anderson	1	1	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -1.5
Closing total: 40.5
DAL moneyline: -126
WAS moneyline: +114

Cowboys closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 37 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: DAL 7 days · WAS 7 days
Coaches: Jason Garrett vs Jay Gruden

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.