2018 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 18, 2018 · State Farm Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Arizona Cardinals

DEN -1 ✓O 42.5 ✓DomeBroncos closed -1 and covered, winning by 35.

Denver Broncos 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:10, DEN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 14:10DEN — ARI ARI ball · 2nd & 10DEN 58%

(14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruli

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 14:10DEN +15% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 2:13DEN +9% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 14-J.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 47. 25-C.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:45ARI +5% win prob(8:45) 4-C.Keenum laterals to 10-E.Sanders. 10-E.Sanders pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:51ARI +4% win prob(14:51) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Cardinals
Offensive plays	52	66
Total yards	312 (edge)	223
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	3.4
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.64
Success rate	38% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	48%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.81
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.27
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	14 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	6
Turnovers	1 (edge)	6

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.64.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Josh RosenQB

21/39, 194 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-38.9 expected points added · -10.2% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

14/21, 161 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.8 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

14 att, 90 yds, 1 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

David JohnsonRB

14 att, 39 yds, 0 TD

-3.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Emmanuel SandersWR

6/7 for 102 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · ARI

Christian KirkWR

3/6 for 57 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · -2.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 17	3	0	0:59	Defensive touchdown
2	ARI	ARI 16	5	7	1:42	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 23	7	72	3:41	Touchdown
4	ARI	ARI 14	10	46	3:20	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 25	5	9	1:55	Punt
6	ARI	ARI 37	3	9	1:21	Defensive touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 21	5	2	2:11	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 36	2	64	0:11	Touchdown
9	ARI	ARI 25	7	19	2:05	Punt
10	DEN	DEN 21	4	2	0:59	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 38	4	-10	0:54	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 32	6	16	2:29	Punt
13	ARI	ARI 11	4	8	1:13	Punt
14	DEN	DEN 30	16	74	6:39	Touchdown
15	ARI	ARI 25	2	1	0:21	End of half
16	DEN	DEN 25	5	11	2:16	Interception
17	ARI	ARI 37	12	58	4:11	Touchdown
18	DEN	DEN 21	5	15	2:42	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 37	3	6	0:44	Fumble
20	DEN	ARI 43	4	43	1:35	Touchdown
21	ARI	ARI 25	5	0	1:42	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 35	4	9	1:56	Punt
23	ARI	ARI 4	9	62	4:34	Interception
24	DEN	DEN 20	4	8	2:19	Punt
25	ARI	ARI 32	2	-9	0:13	Fumble
26	DEN	ARI 12	4	-11	2:13	Turnover on downs
27	ARI	ARI 13	8	24	3:41	Turnover on downs
28	DEN	ARI 32	3	0	1:54	End of game

0 of 28 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 74 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	14/21	161	1	1	2	-0.8
Emmanuel Sanders	1/1	28	1	0	0	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	14	90	6.4	1	0.8
Royce Freeman	13	37	2.8	1	-1.4
Case Keenum	4	4	1.0	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emmanuel Sanders	6	7	102	1	37%	1.5
Demaryius Thomas	5	6	42	0	32%	3.4
Courtland Sutton	1	3	28	1	16%	1.3
Matt LaCosse	1	1	12	0	5%	1.1
Phillip Lindsay	1	1	6	0	5%	1.2
Devontae Booker	1	1	-1	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Todd Davis	6	4	0.0	1	2
Justin Simmons	6	1	0.0	0	0
Chris Harris	5	1	0.0	1	1
Von Miller	2	2	2.0	0	0
Brandon Marshall	2	2	0.0	0	0
Shelby Harris	3	1	0.0	0	1
Will Parks	3	1	0.0	0	0
Shamarko Thomas	2	1	0.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	3	0	2.0	0	0
Bradley Roby	2	0	0.0	1	4

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Rosen	21/39	194	1	3	6	-38.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Johnson	14	39	2.8	-3.7
Josh Rosen	1	14	14.0	1.9
Chase Edmonds	5	9	1.8	-2.0
J.J. Nelson	1	7	7.0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Christian Kirk	3	6	57	0	17%	-2.5
Larry Fitzgerald	4	8	40	1	22%	2.4
Chad Williams	4	8	34	0	22%	-2.0
David Johnson	3	3	31	0	8%	3.0
Chase Edmonds	3	3	12	0	8%	-1.5
Ricky Seals-Jones	2	4	12	0	11%	-8.3
J.J. Nelson	2	4	8	0	11%	-9.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Antoine Bethea	4	2	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	2	3	0.0	0	0
Josh Bynes	2	3	0.0	0	0
Bene' Benwikere	4	0	0.0	0	1
Patrick Peterson	4	0	0.0	1	1
Rodney Gunter	2	1	0.0	0	0
Rudy Ford	1	2	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	0.0	0	0
Chandler Jones	2	1	1.0	0	0
Robert Nkemdiche	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -1
Closing total: 42.5
DEN moneyline: -110
ARI moneyline: -101

Broncos closed -1 and covered, winning by 35.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 55 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: DEN 4 days · ARI 4 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs Steve Wilks