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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 7 · Thu, Oct 18, 2018 · State Farm Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver45
BY 35final margin
CardinalsArizona10
Denver Broncos 45 at Arizona Cardinals 10. Final.
Broncos -1 ✓O 42.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Denver Broncos 45, Cardinals 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:10, 2nd and 10, on Todd Davis — 15.4 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:10 · 2nd and 10
Todd Davis
Broncos
(14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Dome
Broncos closed -1 and covered, winning by 35.
Denver Broncos 45–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:10, Broncos +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ1 8:45(8:45) 4-C.Keenum laterals to 10-E.Sanders. 10-E.Sanders pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.2pts
Chris HarrisBroncosQ1 2:13(2:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 14-J.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 47. 25-C.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Cardinals at 6 giveaways.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.64 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.13 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.81 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Broncos161 of 168 plays carry both curves
(14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruli
Swing −15.4 for CardinalsExpected points −7.18 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 10 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:10DEN +15% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 2:13DEN +9% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right intended for 14-J.Nelson INTERCEPTED by 25-C.Harris at DEN 47. 25-C.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:45ARI +5% win prob(8:45) 4-C.Keenum laterals to 10-E.Sanders. 10-E.Sanders pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:51ARI +4% win prob(14:51) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:02ARI +4% win prob(11:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 88-De.Thomas to DEN 37 for 10 yards (57-J.Bynes) [44-M.Golden].
1st · 14:56DEN +3% win prob(14:56) 31-D.Johnson right tackle to ARI 17 for no gain (94-D.Peko).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Todd Davis's 20-yard touchdown with 14:10 left in the 1st put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
4th5:39Brandon McManus·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+345–10
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryCardinals
Broncos8–0Cardinals
312Total yards223
6.0Yards per play3.4
38%Success rate38%
42%Third-down rate29%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays4
14First downs12
2Sacks taken6
1Turnovers6
The read
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Broncos: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.64Cardinals: −0.64 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Broncos: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.81Cardinals: −0.81 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Broncos: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.27Cardinals: −0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 52 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 66 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Cardinals 1.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.64.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ARI's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 6 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 13 pts
leaned — got home · +13.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.89× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Cardinals16.0%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.3%, 13.8 points above their season mean of 14.4% and 1.9 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
53 dressed · 9 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%59 snaps
60Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%59 snaps
77Billy TurnerOG · Every snap100%59 snaps
61Matt ParadisC · Every snap100%59 snaps
76Max GarciaG · Every snap100%59 snaps
4Case KeenumQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
82Jeff HeuermanTE · Full-time81%48 snaps
10Emmanuel SandersWR · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
88Demaryius ThomasWR · Heavy rotation69%41 snaps
14Courtland SuttonWR · Heavy rotation68%40 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Heavy rotation59%35 snaps
32Andy JanovichRB · Rotational34%20 snaps
83Matt LaCosseTE · Rotational31%18 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Rotational31%18 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Rotational27%16 snaps
23Devontae BookerRB · Situational10%6 snaps
89Brian ParkerTE · Situational8%5 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Situational7%4 snaps
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Adam JonesCBDymonte ThomasDBShane RayDERonald LearyGSam JonesGA.J. JohnsonMLBChad KellyQBKevin HoganQBJared VeldheerT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Rosen pass−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short left intended for 86-R.Seals-Jones INTERCEPTED by 51-T.Davis (95-D.Wolfe) at ARI 20. 51-T.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 14:10 · Cardinals · 2nd & 10 at ARI 17 · gained nothing · -7.18 EP · −20.3% win probability
159 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 77 yards from the DEN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.31
Success rate
35%
Yards
532
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.4975%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.1566%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.2642%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0829%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.5417%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.270%
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Broncos6Cardinals0
Touchdown4 plays
Broncos7Cardinals0
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 16 to the Cardinals 23
Broncos13Cardinals0
Broncos14Cardinals0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Cardinals 28
Broncos14Cardinals3
Field goal10 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Broncos 25
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 34
Broncos20Cardinals3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 46
Broncos21Cardinals3
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 24
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
Broncos27Cardinals3
Broncos28Cardinals3
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 46
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 23
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 48
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 11 to the Cardinals 19
Broncos34Cardinals3
Broncos35Cardinals3
Touchdown19 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 36
Broncos35Cardinals9
Broncos35Cardinals10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Broncos 4
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 21 to the Broncos 26
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cardinals 37 to the Cardinals 43
Broncos41Cardinals10
Broncos42Cardinals10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Cardinals 28
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 41
4th quarter34 plays
Punt1 play
Intercepted9 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Broncos 34
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 28
Fumble lost2 plays
Broncos45Cardinals10
Field goal4 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Cardinals 13 to the Cardinals 46
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Broncoscategory by categoryCardinals
Broncos6
Cardinals0
