2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium

Detroit LionsWinner

Miami Dolphins

DET -3 ✓O 47 ✓Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 11.

Detroit Lions 32–21. Biggest swing: Q3 7:15, MIA +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 7:15DET — MIA MIA ball · 2nd & 10DET 93%

(7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 7:15MIA +11% win prob(7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 10:32MIA +9% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 13-T.Jones pushed ob at MIA 19 for 26 yards (22-T.McDonald).
Q2 · 15:00MIA +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson right guard pushed ob at MIA 20 for 71 yards (20-R.Jones).
Q1 · 10:56DET +7% win prob(10:56) 33-K.Johnson right end pushed ob at MIA 20 for 10 yards (52-R.McMillan). PENALTY on DET-71-R.Wagner, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Dolphins
Offensive plays	57	54
Total yards	459 (edge)	322
Yards per play	8.1 (edge)	6.0
Expected points added / play	0.37 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	49% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	42%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.61 (edge)	0.23
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	0.01
Third downs	2/8	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Brock OsweilerQB

22/31, 239 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.3 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

18/22, 217 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

14.1 expected points added · +15.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

19 att, 158 yds, 0 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Kenyan DrakeRB

6 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Danny AmendolaWR

6/7 for 84 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 6.3 expected points added

Receiving · DET

Michael RobertsTE

3/3 for 48 yds, 2 TD

14% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	-1	2:12	Punt
2	DET	DET 36	7	79	3:36	Touchdown
3	MIA	MIA 25	8	19	3:54	Punt
4	DET	DET 11	4	8	1:44	Punt
5	MIA	MIA 39	5	25	3:22	Punt
6	DET	DET 4	6	85	2:38	Turnover on downs
7	MIA	MIA 23	13	72	5:01	Touchdown
8	DET	DET 25	14	75	6:31	Touchdown
9	MIA	MIA 23	3	0	1:02	End of half
10	DET	DET 25	13	75	6:28	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 25	7	75	1:26	Touchdown
12	DET	DET 25	8	45	3:50	Touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 17	9	18	4:13	Punt
14	DET	DET 20	7	63	3:59	Turnover on downs
15	MIA	MIA 25	12	72	4:04	Touchdown
16	DET	DET 25	9	29	4:05	Turnover on downs
17	MIA	MIA 25	8	42	1:07	Turnover on downs
18	DET	DET 36	2	0	0:48	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 85 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	18/22	217	2	0	1	14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kerryon Johnson	19	158	8.3	0	2.4
LeGarrette Blount	10	50	5.0	1	0.8
Golden Tate	1	30	30.0	0	1.9
Matthew Stafford	4	9	2.3	0	2.1
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Roberts	3	3	48	2	14%	8.5
Kenny Golladay	2	2	37	0	9%	2.6
Golden Tate	4	6	36	0	27%	-1.3
Marvin Jones	3	4	29	0	18%	1.2
T.J. Jones	1	1	26	0	5%	2.0
Kerryon Johnson	2	3	21	0	14%	0.5
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	12	0	5%	1.1
Luke Willson	2	2	8	0	9%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jarrad Davis	6	1	1.0
Romeo Okwara	5	1	1.0
Teez Tabor	4	2	0.0
Quandre Diggs	4	0	0.0
A'Shawn Robinson	3	1	0.0
Ricky Jean Francois	3	1	2.0
Glover Quin	1	3	0.0
Jalen Reeves-Maybin	1	1	0.0
Tracy Walker III	1	1	0.0
Tavon Wilson	2	0	0.0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Osweiler	22/31	239	2	0	4	6.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	6	72	12.0	1	2.3
Frank Gore	10	29	2.9	0	-1.8
Albert Wilson	2	4	2.0	0	-0.4
Brock Osweiler	1	2	2.0	0	2.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	6	7	84	1	23%	6.3
Mike Gesicki	3	3	44	0	10%	3.8
Albert Wilson	3	3	32	0	10%	0.4
Jakeem Grant	2	2	32	0	7%	2.6
Nick O'Leary	2	3	23	0	10%	0.6
Kenyan Drake	4	8	15	0	27%	-4.1
Kenny Stills	1	3	5	1	10%	1.9
Frank Gore	1	1	4	0	3%	0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
T.J. McDonald	6	2	0.0	0
Raekwon McMillan	6	1	0.0	0
Kiko Alonso	5	1	0.0	1
Akeem Spence	3	3	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	4	1	0.0	0
Reshad Jones	5	0	0.0	0
Xavien Howard	3	1	0.0	0
Jerome Baker	3	1	0.0	1
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	0	0.0	0
Andre Branch	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DET -3
Closing total: 47
DET moneyline: -177
MIA moneyline: +159

Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 47; the game landed 53 — over by 6.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 89°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: DET 14 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Matt Patricia vs Adam Gase