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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
LionsDetroit32
BY 11final margin
DolphinsMiami21
Detroit Lions 32 at Miami Dolphins 21. Final.
Lions -3 ✓O 47 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Detroit Lions 32, Dolphins 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 7:15, 2nd and 10, on Kenyan Drake — 11.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 7:15 · 2nd and 10
Kenyan Drake
Dolphins
(7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Lions closed -3 and covered, winning by 11.
Detroit Lions 32–21. Biggest swing: Q3 7:15, Dolphins +11.3% win probability on one snap.
11.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.J. JonesLionsQ1 10:32(10:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 13-T.Jones pushed ob at MIA 19 for 26 yards (22-T.McDonald).
8.6pts
Kerryon JohnsonLionsQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson right guard pushed ob at MIA 20 for 71 yards (20-R.Jones).
8.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 4 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 2 of 8 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.61 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at +0.23 expected points per dropback.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Lions150 of 159 plays carry both curves
(7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.3 for DolphinsExpected points +4.71 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 6 points higher than the market did.play 93
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 7:15MIA +11% win prob(7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:32MIA +9% win prob(10:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 13-T.Jones pushed ob at MIA 19 for 26 yards (22-T.McDonald).
2nd · 15:00MIA +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson right guard pushed ob at MIA 20 for 71 yards (20-R.Jones).
1st · 10:56DET +7% win prob(10:56) 33-K.Johnson right end pushed ob at MIA 20 for 10 yards (52-R.McMillan). PENALTY on DET-71-R.Wagner, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 30 - No Play.
2nd · 7:38MIA +7% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 8-B.Osweiler pass short right to 10-K.Stills for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:57MIA +6% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 80-M.Roberts pushed ob at MIA 2 for 29 yards (55-J.Baker).
1st · 14:31
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Roberts's 15-yard touchdown catch with 9:18 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:18Michael Roberts·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+77–0
2nd12:39Matt Prater·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+310–0
4th2:00Matt Prater·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+332–21
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryDolphins
Lions7–1Dolphins
459Total yards322
8.1Yards per play6.0
49%Success rate41%
25%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
11Explosive plays4
23First downs16
1Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Lions ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.61 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.37Lions: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.15Dolphins: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.61Lions: +0.61 expected points added per play
+0.23Dolphins: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Lions: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 57 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 54 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Lions 6, Dolphins 3.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.37 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's early-down pass rate, 40.4%, is past their previous low of 48.8% in week 5 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 11 pts
right on their number · +0.2 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Dolphins8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.1%, 12.2 points above their season mean of 52.9% and 1.7 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Drake left+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:15) 32-K.Drake left tackle for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:15 · Dolphins · 2nd & 10 at MIA 46 · gained 54 · +4.71 EP · +13.6% win probability
148 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 4 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
43%
Yards
779
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.1962%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3443%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.4733%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3950%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.33100%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
Lions6Dolphins0
Lions7Dolphins0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Dolphins 15
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 44
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 11 to the Lions 19
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 39 to the Lions 41
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Lions10Dolphins0
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 9 to the Dolphins 11
Lions10Dolphins6
Lions10Dolphins7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Lions 4
Lions16Dolphins7
Lions17Dolphins7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 31
3rd quarter39 plays
Lions20Dolphins7
Field goal14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 9
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Lions20Dolphins13
Lions20Dolphins14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 46
Lions26Dolphins14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Dolphins 40
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Dolphins 35
Lions29Dolphins14
Field goal7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Dolphins 17
Lions29Dolphins20
Lions29Dolphins21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Lions 24
Lions32Dolphins21
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Dolphins 31
No good12 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Lions 28
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
