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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
TexansHouston20
BY 13final margin
JaguarsJacksonville7
Houston Texans 20 at Jacksonville Jaguars 7. Final.
Jaguars -4 upsetU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Houston Texans 20, Jaguars 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:49, 3rd and 4, on Blake Bortles — 13.9 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:49 · 3rd and 4
Blake Bortles
Texans
(13:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus), RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at JAX 36. 90-J.Clowney to JAX 36 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
Jaguars closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 20–7. Biggest swing: Q1 13:49, Texans +13.9% win probability on one snap.
13.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.J. YeldonJaguarsQ1 15:00(15:00) 24-T.Yeldon right end to JAX 30 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
11.3pts
DeAndre HopkinsTexansQ1 6:06(6:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at JAX 44 for 31 yards.
9.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Texans at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Texans won this one — -0.04 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.30 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Texans163 of 171 plays carry both curves
(13:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus), RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at JAX 36. 90-J.Clowney to JAX 36 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
Swing −13.9 for JaguarsExpected points −4.37 for JaguarsThe model had Texans 9 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:49HOU +14% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus), RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at JAX 36. 90-J.Clowney to JAX 36 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
1st · 15:00JAX +11% win prob(15:00) 24-T.Yeldon right end to JAX 30 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
1st · 6:06JAX +9% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at JAX 44 for 31 yards.
3rd · 11:37HOU +6% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 8 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). FUMBLES (41-Z.Cunningham), RECOVERED by HOU-25-K.Jackson at JAX 12. 25-K.Jackson to JAX 12 for no gain (24-T.Yeldon).
4th · 5:37HOU +5% win prob(5:37) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short middle intended for 24-T.Yeldon INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Mathieu at HOU 20. 32-T.Mathieu to HOU 26 for 6 yards (24-T.Yeldon).
1st · 9:08JAX +5% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 10-D.Moncrief pushed ob at HOU 43 for 24 yards (24-J.Joseph).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 44-yard field goal with 10:27 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:27Ka'imi Fairbairn·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+33–0
1st3:24Ka'imi Fairbairn·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+36–0
Texans ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Texans: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.26Jaguars: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Texans: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.25Jaguars: −0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Texans: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.30Jaguars: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 60 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 68 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Texans 3, Jaguars 1.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's early-down pass rate, 38.6%, is past their previous low of 51.2% in week 6 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Jaguars17.9%
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.28× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 20.8%, 7.2 points above their season mean of 13.5% and 1.5 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Bortles scrambles−13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus), RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at JAX 36. 90-J.Clowney to JAX 36 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
Q1 13:49 · Jaguars · 3rd & 4 at JAX 31 · gained 3 · -4.37 EP · −12.9% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 60 yards from the HOU 40 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
36%
Yards
531
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.5169%
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR21-0.0390%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0031%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16+0.1050%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.2746%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.4314%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0971%
Texans3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR6-0.1667%
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Texans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Texans3Jaguars0
Field goal8 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Jaguars 18
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 37
Texans6Jaguars0
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Jaguars 29
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 23
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 47
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 34
Texans12Jaguars0
Texans13Jaguars0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Jaguars 5
Punt13 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 45
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Texans 29
3rd quarter46 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 49
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 4
Texans19Jaguars0
Texans20Jaguars0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 10
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 38
Punt4 plays
Texans20Jaguars6
Texans20Jaguars7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Texans 47 to the Texans 6
The period ended6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 44
4th quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Jaguars 48
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Jaguars 22
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 39 to the Texans 43
Intercepted12 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Texans 26
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Jaguars 44
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 36
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Texanscategory by categoryJaguars
Texans3
Jaguars0
