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2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

20

Jacksonville Jaguars

7

JAX -4 upsetU 43 ✓15 mph wind

Houston Texans 20–7. Biggest swing: Q1 13:49, HOU +14% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑HOU ↓
Q1 · 13:49HOU — JAX JAX ball · 3rd & 4JAX 69%

(13:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus), RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at JAX 36. 90-J.Clowney to JAX 36 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:49HOU +14% win prob(13:49) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 34 for 3 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus), RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at JAX 36. 90-J.Clowney to JAX 36 for no gain (12-D.Westbrook).
  2. Q1 · 15:00JAX +11% win prob(15:00) 24-T.Yeldon right end to JAX 30 for 5 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
  3. Q1 · 6:06JAX +9% win prob(6:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins ran ob at JAX 44 for 31 yards.
  4. Q3 · 11:37HOU +6% win prob(11:37) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles up the middle to JAX 8 for 4 yards (41-Z.Cunningham). FUMBLES (41-Z.Cunningham), RECOVERED by HOU-25-K.Jackson at JAX 12. 25-K.Jackson to JAX 12 for no gain (24-T.Yeldon).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansJaguars
Offensive plays6068
Total yards274 (edge)259
Yards per play4.6 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play-0.00 (edge)-0.26
Success rate35%43% (edge)
Dropback rate47%78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.04 (edge)-0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.04 (edge)-0.30
Third downs8/16 (edge)9/19
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)3 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1415 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)4
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.26.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Cody KesslerQB

21/30, 156 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.7 expected points added · +6.7% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

12/24, 139 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -9.8% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

22 att, 100 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Blake BortlesQB

6 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Donte MoncriefWR

7/10 for 76 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

6/8 for 68 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 25491:23Fumble
2HOUJAX 367103:15Turnover on downs
3JAXJAX 258382:57Punt
4HOUHOU 209614:46Turnover on downs
5JAXJAX 25531:33Punt
6HOUHOU 187342:55Punt
7JAXJAX 105242:45Punt
8HOUHOU 4010604:55Touchdown
9JAXJAX 513404:20Punt
10HOUHOU 203121:11End of half
11HOUHOU 258242:10Punt
12JAXJAX 1371:23Fumble
13HOUJAX 123120:37Touchdown
14JAXJAX 25882:55Punt
15HOUHOU 7401:00Punt
16JAXHOU 4711474:37Touchdown
17HOUHOU 258273:12Punt
18JAXJAX 164-21:33Punt
19HOUHOU 39441:14Punt
20JAXJAX 2012645:49Interception
21HOUHOU 269303:15Punt
22JAXJAX 157211:10Turnover on downs
23HOUJAX 36201:05End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 64 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Deshaun Watson12/241391012.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Lamar Miller221004.511.2
Alfred Blue8283.50-2.9
Deshaun Watson7131.90-2.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Will Fuller6868033%6.2
DeAndre Hopkins3850133%2.1
Tyler Ervin111904%3.1
Keke Coutee133013%-1.5
Jordan Thomas01004%-0.7
Lamar Miller13-1013%-4.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zach Cunningham820.000
Benardrick McKinney610.000
Johnathan Joseph700.001
Jadeveon Clowney702.000
Justin Reid500.000
Tyrann Mathieu411.011
Kareem Jackson300.000
Whitney Mercilus301.000
Brennan Scarlett110.000
Duke Ejiofor110.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cody Kessler21/30156114-4.7
Blake Bortles6/1261000-2.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Blake Bortles6305.00-6.1
T.J. Yeldon12282.30-4.1
Cody Kessler284.00-0.3
Jamaal Charles122.00-0.3
Dave Williams122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Donte Moncrief71076025%3.4
T.J. Yeldon5740118%0.6
D.J. Chark4731018%-2.5
Keelan Cole2721018%-2.2
David Grinnage221705%0.7
Dede Westbrook4417010%1.5
Rashad Greene11803%0.2
Tommy Bohanon11503%-0.0
Jamaal Charles11203%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Calais Campbell540.000
Telvin Smith610.000
Myles Jack510.000
Ronnie Harrison420.000
A.J. Bouye510.000
Tashaun Gipson300.001
T.J. Yeldon200.000
Malik Jackson200.000
Dante Fowler201.000
D.J. Chark100.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -4
Closing total
43
HOU moneyline
+188
JAX moneyline
-210

Jaguars closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 27 — under by 16.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
68°F, wind 15 mph
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
HOU 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.