2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Levi's Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

LA -8 ✓U 52 ✓Rams closed -8 and covered, winning by 29.

Los Angeles Rams 39–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:07, LA +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:07LA — SF SF ball · 2nd & 16LA 70%

(10:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 42 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam) [50-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by LA-49-T.Young at SF 44. 49-T.Young to SF 44 for no gain (58-W.Richburg).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:07LA +9% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 42 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam) [50-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by LA-49-T.Young at SF 44. 49-T.Young to SF 44 for no gain (58-W.Richburg).
Q1 · 13:44LA +9% win prob(13:44) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 29, and recovers at LA 29. 16-J.Goff to LA 26 for -3 yards (54-C.Marsh).
Q1 · 13:03SF +6% win prob(13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James to SF 30 for 6 yards (59-M.Kiser).
Q1 · 8:51SF +5% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to SF 25 for 21 yards (29-J.Tartt). Caught at SF 28. 3-YAC

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	49ers
Offensive plays	58	58
Total yards	342 (edge)	228
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	-0.49
Success rate	55% (edge)	40%
Dropback rate	45%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.35 (edge)	-0.62
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.29
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	3/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	7
Turnovers	0 (edge)	4

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.49.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

18/24, 202 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.9 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Passing · SF

C.J. BeathardQB

15/27, 170 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-23.4 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Malcolm BrownRB

13 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

0.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

15 att, 63 yds, 2 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

George KittleTE

5/8 for 98 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

5/7 for 78 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LA	LA 25	5	9	2:02	Punt
2	SF	SF 30	6	19	3:00	Fumble
3	LA	SF 44	7	27	3:24	Turnover on downs
4	SF	SF 25	9	37	3:55	Punt
5	LA	LA 12	5	27	1:26	Punt
6	SF	SF 20	1	1	0:13	Fumble
7	LA	SF 21	5	21	1:37	Touchdown
8	SF	SF 25	5	-6	1:24	Punt
9	LA	LA 47	6	34	2:54	Turnover on downs
10	SF	SF 25	7	24	3:48	Interception
11	LA	LA 40	9	60	3:47	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 25	10	75	2:17	Touchdown
13	LA	LA 27	2	0	0:13	End of half
14	SF	SF 25	5	6	2:08	Punt
15	LA	LA 25	11	55	4:46	Turnover on downs
16	SF	SF 25	4	9	1:07	Interception
17	LA	SF 27	4	27	0:55	Touchdown
18	SF	SF 25	9	42	3:27	Turnover on downs
19	LA	LA 25	8	37	3:53	Punt
20	SF	SF 9	4	-6	1:31	Punt
21	LA	SF 13	3	13	0:38	Touchdown
22	SF	SF 23	7	8	2:23	Punt
23	LA	LA 15	6	20	3:52	Punt
24	SF	LA 37	6	19	1:56	Turnover on downs
25	LA	LA 19	5	12	3:24	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	18/24	202	2	0	1	8.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Malcolm Brown	13	65	5.0	0	0.8
Todd Gurley	15	63	4.2	2	0.6
Brandin Cooks	1	7	7.0	0	1.2
Robert Woods	1	6	6.0	0	0.2
Jared Goff	3	4	1.3	0	-2.9
Sean Mannion	3	1	0.3	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	5	7	78	0	29%	4.7
Brandin Cooks	4	5	64	1	21%	5.0
Todd Gurley	4	5	23	1	21%	0.4
Josh Reynolds	1	1	19	0	4%	2.0
Nick Williams	2	2	17	0	8%	2.6
Malcolm Brown	1	1	6	0	4%	0.2
Tyler Higbee	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7
Gerald Everett	1	2	-5	0	8%	-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cory Littleton	7	2	2.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	6	1	4.0	0	0
Michael Brockers	4	1	0.0	0	0
Troy Hill	4	0	0.0	1	1
Mark Barron	1	3	0.0	0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	2	0	0.0	0	0
Bryce Hager	1	1	0.0	0	1
Nickell Robey	1	1	0.0	0	1
Samson Ebukam	2	0	1.0	0	0
Ramik Wilson	1	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Beathard	15/27	170	1	2	7	-23.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Raheem Mostert	7	59	8.4	3.3
Alfred Morris	9	25	2.8	-2.2
Matt Breida	5	15	3.0	-4.9
C.J. Beathard	2	13	6.5	0.6
Kyle Juszczyk	1	-5	-5.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
George Kittle	5	8	98	1	30%	2.3
Marquise Goodwin	2	5	24	0	19%	-4.0
Raheem Mostert	4	4	19	0	15%	-0.6
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	18	0	11%	0.7
Trent Taylor	1	3	6	0	11%	-4.4
Pierre Garcon	1	1	5	0	4%	0.4
Alfred Morris	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Kendrick Bourne	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Garrett Celek	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Fred Warner	4	4	0.0	0
Jaquiski Tartt	5	1	0.0	0
D.J. Reed	4	2	0.0	0
Arik Armstead	5	0	1.0	0
Solomon Thomas	3	2	0.0	0
DeForest Buckner	3	0	0.0	0
Earl Mitchell	3	0	0.0	0
K'Waun Williams	3	0	0.0	0
Ronald Blair	1	1	0.0	0
Ahkello Witherspoon	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -8
Closing total: 52
LA moneyline: -390
SF moneyline: +338

Rams closed -8 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 52; the game landed 49 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 62°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Walt Anderson
Rest: LA 7 days · SF 6 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kyle Shanahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.