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Los Angeles Rams 39 at San Francisco 49ers 10. Final.
Rams -8 ✓U 52 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Los Angeles Rams 39, 49ers 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:07, 2nd and 16, on C.J. Beathard — 8.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:07 · 2nd and 16
C.J. Beathard
Rams
(10:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 42 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam) [50-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by LA-49-T.Young at SF 44. 49-T.Young to SF 44 for no gain (58-W.Richburg).
Rams closed -8 and covered, winning by 29.
Los Angeles Rams 39–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:07, Rams +8.9% win probability on one snap.
8.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheet49ersQ1 13:44(13:44) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 29, and recovers at LA 29. 16-J.Goff to LA 26 for -3 yards (54-C.Marsh).
8.8pts
Unnamed on the sheetRamsQ1 13:03(13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James to SF 30 for 6 yards (59-M.Kiser).
6.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against 49ers at 4 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.35 expected points per dropback, against 49ers at -0.62 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against 49ers at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Rams155 of 161 plays carry both curves
(10:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 42 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam) [50-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by LA-49-T.Young at SF 44. 49-T.Young to SF 44 for no gain (58-W.Richburg).
Swing −8.9 for 49ersExpected points −4.72 for 49ersThe model had 49ers 33 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:07LA +9% win prob(10:07) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard sacked at SF 42 for -3 yards (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam) [50-S.Ebukam], RECOVERED by LA-49-T.Young at SF 44. 49-T.Young to SF 44 for no gain (58-W.Richburg).
1st · 13:44LA +9% win prob(13:44) 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at LA 29, and recovers at LA 29. 16-J.Goff to LA 26 for -3 yards (54-C.Marsh).
1st · 13:03SF +6% win prob(13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James to SF 30 for 6 yards (59-M.Kiser).
1st · 8:51SF +5% win prob(8:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 17-R.Woods to SF 25 for 21 yards (29-J.Tartt). Caught at SF 28. 3-YAC
1st · 1:13LA +5% win prob(1:13) 22-M.Breida right tackle to SF 21 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at SF 21.
1st · 5:53SF +3% win prob(5:53) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 31-R.Mostert to LA 37 for 23 yards (20-L.Joyner) [96-M.Longacre]. Caught SF 38. 25-YAC
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 35-yard field goal with 6:38 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:38Greg Zuerlein·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+33–0
3rd2:42Robbie Gould·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap K.Nelson+332–10
4th11:44Todd Gurley·12-yd TD catch12-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+739–10
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams8–149ers
342Total yards228
5.9Yards per play3.9
55%Success rate40%
42%Third-down rate27%
4Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays8
20First downs16
1Sacks taken7
0Turnovers4
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Rams: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.4949ers: −0.49 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Rams: +0.35 expected points added per play
−0.6249ers: −0.62 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Rams: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.2949ers: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 58 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against 49ers’s 58 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, 49ers 2.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 34.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 7 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 17.9% in week 2.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 6.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +17.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+1.97× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
49ers11.5%
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.3%, 17.2 points above their season mean of 17.1% and 2.0 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
53 dressed · 7 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%61 snaps
77Andrew WhitworthT · Every snap100%61 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%61 snaps
76Rodger SaffoldG · Full-time84%51 snaps
65John SullivanC · Full-time84%51 snaps
83Josh ReynoldsWR · Full-time84%51 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Full-time84%51 snaps
12Brandin CooksWR · Full-time82%50 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Full-time82%50 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Heavy rotation69%42 snaps
30Todd GurleyRB · Heavy rotation59%36 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Rotational41%25 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Rotational36%22 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Situational18%11 snaps
15Nick WilliamsWR · Situational16%10 snaps
70Joe NoteboomT · Situational16%10 snaps
68Jamon BrownG · Situational16%10 snaps
14Sean MannionQB · Situational16%10 snaps
11KhaDarel HodgeWR · Situational13%8 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Brian AllenCDarious WilliamsCBTanzel SmartDTSebastian Joseph-DayDTJustin DavisRBJohn KellyRBCooper KuppWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Breida right−14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:13) 22-M.Breida right tackle to SF 21 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-99-A.Donald at SF 21.
Q1 1:13 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 20 · gained 1 · -5.39 EP · −13.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
44%
Yards
567
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1850%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22-0.3345%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.7974%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.6164%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.110%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
49ers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Rams 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Rams349ers0
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 17
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 26
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 39
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 21 to the 49ers 18
2nd quarter46 plays
Rams949ers0
Rams1049ers0
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 7
Rams1249ers0
Punt5 plays
Rams1549ers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 47 to the 49ers 14
Intercepted7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 49
Rams2149ers0
Rams2249ers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 40 to the 49ers 19
Rams2249ers6
Rams2249ers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
Rams2549ers7
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 13
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 34
Rams3149ers7
Rams3249ers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the 49ers 27 to the 49ers 1
Rams3249ers10
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 25
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 31
4th quarter36 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the 49ers 38
Punt4 plays
Rams3849ers10
Rams3949ers10
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 13 to the 49ers 12
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 23 to the 49ers 40
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 35
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Rams 37 to the Rams 15
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 19 to the Rams 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Ramscategory by category49ers
Rams3
49ers0
