For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · MetLife Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

37

New York Jets

17

MIN -3.5 ✓O 45 ✓16 mph wind

Minnesota Vikings 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:17, MIN +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑MIN ↓
Q2 · 7:17MIN — NYJ NYJ ball · 2nd & 7MIN 66%

(7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 42, RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at NYJ 44. 96-T.Johnson to NYJ 44 for no gain (72-B.Shell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 7:17MIN +11% win prob(7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 42, RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at NYJ 44. 96-T.Johnson to NYJ 44 for no gain (72-B.Shell).
  2. Q1 · 8:11NYJ +10% win prob(8:11) 6-M.Wile punts 63 yards to NYJ 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
  3. Q1 · 9:02MIN +10% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 1 for -13 yards (51-B.Copeland).
  4. Q2 · 0:47MIN +7% win prob(:47) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsJets
Offensive plays6469
Total yards317 (edge)263
Yards per play5.0 (edge)3.8
Expected points added / play-0.01 (edge)-0.47
Success rate33% (edge)29%
Dropback rate64%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.05 (edge)-0.54
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.31
Third downs2/152/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)77
First downs gained on snaps1315 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers0 (edge)4

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.47.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

25/40, 241 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.2 expected points added · +4.6% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

17/42, 206 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-28.0 expected points added · -22.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Latavius MurrayRB

15 att, 69 yds, 2 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah CrowellRB

11 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

9/10 for 110 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Trenton CannonRB

4/5 for 69 yds, 0 TD

12% of team targets · 0.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 326531:38Touchdown
2NYJNYJ 137192:55Punt
3MINMIN 254-192:24Punt
4NYJNYJ 36431:03Punt
5MINMIN 146312:33Punt
6NYJNYJ 147863:26Touchdown
7MINMIN 33571:19Punt
8NYJNYJ 7451:39Punt
9MINNYJ 358292:50Turnover on downs
10NYJNYJ 315-11:16Punt
11MINMIN 204-41:01Punt
12NYJNYJ 42230:50Fumble
13MINNYJ 44411:30Punt
14NYJNYJ 16420:50Punt
15MINMIN 33421:06Punt
16NYJNYJ 204-81:59Punt
17MINNYJ 30460:59Turnover on downs
18NYJNYJ 32200:42End of half
19NYJNYJ 256131:39Punt
20MINMIN 3610745:06Touchdown
21NYJNYJ 33200:20Interception
22MINNYJ 9452:06Turnover on downs
23NYJMIN 46893:10Turnover on downs
24MINMIN 25581:46Punt
25NYJNYJ 84-11:07Punt
26MINMIN 493611:08Touchdown
27NYJNYJ 4111593:11Touchdown
28MINMIN 255-51:39Punt
29NYJNYJ 43200:15Interception
30MINMIN 398613:17Touchdown
31NYJNYJ 254100:47Interception
32MINNYJ 22471:07Turnover on downs
33NYJNYJ 2412642:40Turnover on downs
34MINMIN 12100:42End of game

0 of 34 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 86 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins25/402412012.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Latavius Murray15694.621.9
Roc Thomas12323.001.8
Mike Boone441.00-2.2
Kirk Cousins2-1-0.50-1.8
Stefon Diggs2-7-3.50-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adam Thielen910110126%8.0
Aldrick Robinson133418%4.4
Stefon Diggs81533038%-7.3
Brandon Zylstra112303%1.9
Kyle Rudolph1416010%-0.7
Latavius Murray221405%-0.2
Laquon Treadwell331108%-0.3
Mike Boone01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Eric Kendricks500.002
Jayron Kearse320.500
Harrison Smith410.012
Danielle Hunter131.000
Jaleel Johnson220.500
Trae Waynes030.014
Ben Gedeon120.000
Holton Hill300.012
Tom Johnson210.000
George Iloka210.000

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold17/42206133-28.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaiah Crowell11292.60-3.2
Bilal Powell5204.000.1
Sam Darnold6183.01-1.7
Trenton Cannon242.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trenton Cannon4569012%0.5
Robbie Chosen31044024%-10.6
Christopher Herndon4742117%2.1
Isaiah Crowell132107%0.7
Andre Roberts2621014%-5.7
Deontay Burnett12905%0.2
Bilal Powell11502%-0.7
Neal Sterling02005%-1.3
Charone Peake01002%-5.2
Jordan Leggett01002%-0.5
Jermaine Kearse02005%-1.3
Eric Tomlinson12-505%-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Darryl Roberts1010.002
Jamal Adams530.000
Parry Nickerson610.000
Brandon Copeland321.000
Avery Williamson310.000
Steve McLendon120.000
Morris Claiborne210.000
Trenton Cannon200.000
Neville Hewitt110.000
Doug Middleton200.001

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Closing total
45
MIN moneyline
-175
NYJ moneyline
+157

Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 45; the game landed 54 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
46°F, wind 16 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
MIN 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Todd Bowles

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.