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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:14 AM ET · 16 to play
Minnesota Vikings 37, Jets 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 7:17, 2nd and 7 — 10.6 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:17 · 2nd and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Vikings
(7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 42, RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at NYJ 44. 96-T.Johnson to NYJ 44 for no gain (72-B.Shell).
20.5 mph wind
Vikings closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Minnesota Vikings 37–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 7:17, Vikings +10.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 20.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsJetsQ1 9:02(9:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 1 for -13 yards (51-B.Copeland).
9.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetVikingsQ1 8:11(8:11) 6-M.Wile punts 63 yards to NYJ 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
10.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.54 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Vikings at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Vikings183 of 190 plays carry both curves
(7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 42, RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at NYJ 44. 96-T.Johnson to NYJ 44 for no gain (72-B.Shell).
Swing −10.6 for JetsExpected points −4.86 for JetsThe model had Jets 18 points higher than the market did.play 67
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:17MIN +11% win prob(7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 42, RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at NYJ 44. 96-T.Johnson to NYJ 44 for no gain (72-B.Shell).
1st · 8:11NYJ +10% win prob(8:11) 6-M.Wile punts 63 yards to NYJ 36, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.
1st · 9:02MIN +10% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 1 for -13 yards (51-B.Copeland).
2nd · 0:47MIN +7% win prob(:47) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.
3rd · 2:44NYJ +7% win prob(2:44) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
1st · 13:28NYJ +7% win prob(13:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:20
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dan Bailey's 26-yard field goal with 10:16 left in the 2nd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th3:26Dan Bailey·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder M.Wile · snap K.McDermott+337–17
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryJets
Vikings5–3Jets
317Total yards263
5.0Yards per play3.8
33%Success rate29%
13%Third-down rate15%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays7
13First downs15
1Sacks taken3
0Turnovers4
The read
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
−0.47Jets: −0.47 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Vikings: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.54Jets: −0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Vikings: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.31Jets: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 64 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Jets’s 69 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 6, Jets 3.
NoteVikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Jets17.1%
right on their number · −0.5 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 36.5 points below their season mean of 36.5% and 1.2 times their own 30.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold FUMBLES−15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 42, RECOVERED by MIN-96-T.Johnson at NYJ 44. 96-T.Johnson to NYJ 44 for no gain (72-B.Shell).
Q2 7:17 · Jets · 2nd & 7 at NYJ 45 · gained nothing · -4.86 EP · −15.1% win probability
181 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 190 plays across 34 drives, personnel groupings on 190 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 34 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 86 yards from the NYJ 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
190 of 190 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
190
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
36%
Yards
579
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0169%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.7065%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1958%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.0646%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.4083%
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
190 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
190 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Vikings6Jets0
Vikings7Jets0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Jets 34
Drive ended7 plays, from the Jets 22 to the Jets 32
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jets 39
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 14 to the Vikings 45
Vikings7Jets6
Vikings7Jets7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 14 to the Vikings 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 35
2nd quarter53 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Jets 12
Vikings10Jets7
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 3
Punt5 plays
Punt4 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 45
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 44 to the Jets 43
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Jets 18
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 35
Punt6 plays
No good5 plays, from the Jets 30 to the Jets 24
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 38
Vikings16Jets7
Vikings17Jets7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Jets 11
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings20Jets7
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 4
Vikings20Jets10
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 46 to the Vikings 35
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 15
4th quarter58 plays
Punt2 plays
Vikings26Jets10
Vikings27Jets10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 49 to the Jets 38
Vikings27Jets16
Vikings27Jets17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Vikings 1
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 26
Intercepted2 plays
Vikings33Jets17
Vikings34Jets17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Jets 34
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 35
Vikings37Jets17
Field goal7 plays
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Vikings 19
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
