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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 38 at Chicago Bears 31. Final.
Patriots -1 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
New England Patriots 38, Bears 31 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 6:05, 4th and 8 — 20.8 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:05 · 4th and 8
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Patriots closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
New England Patriots 38–31. Biggest swing: Q3 6:05, Patriots +20.8% win probability on one snap.
20.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Sony MichelBearsQ2 15:00(15:00) 26-S.Michel left tackle to NE 38 for no gain (98-B.Nichols). FUMBLES (98-B.Nichols), RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at NE 36. 98-B.Nichols to NE 36 for no gain (26-S.Michel). NE-26-S.Michel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
16.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ2 11:051-C.Parkey kicks 60 yards from CHI 35 to NE 5. 84-C.Patterson for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.6pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Patriots at 4 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Patriots at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Bears at +0.08 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Patriots184 of 195 plays carry both curves
(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.8 for BearsExpected points −6.71 for BearsThe model had Bears 7 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:05NE +21% win prob(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00NE +16% win prob(15:00) 26-S.Michel left tackle to NE 38 for no gain (98-B.Nichols). FUMBLES (98-B.Nichols), RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at NE 36. 98-B.Nichols to NE 36 for no gain (26-S.Michel). NE-26-S.Michel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 11:05CHI +16% win prob1-C.Parkey kicks 60 yards from CHI 35 to NE 5. 84-C.Patterson for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:46CHI +14% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CHI 23 for 19 yards (23-K.Fuller).
1st · 3:50NE +13% win prob1-C.Parkey kicks 65 yards from CHI 35 to NE 0. 84-C.Patterson to NE 22 for 22 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski). FUMBLES (44-N.Kwiatkoski), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at NE 24. 36-D.Houston-Carson to NE 24 for no gain (15-C.Hogan).
3rd · 13:41
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyle Van Noy's 29-yard return touchdown with 6:05 left in the 3rd put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:05Julian Edelman·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+77–0
1st3:55Cody Parkey·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+37–3
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Patriots: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.00Bears: −0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Patriots: +0.38 expected points added per play
+0.08Bears: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Patriots: −0.22 expected points added per play
−0.25Bears: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bears’s 76 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 5, Bears 4.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate, 69.5%, is past their previous high of 61.2% in week 2 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 7.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 57 dropbacks
Bears7.9%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.2 pts, 13.6 points above their season mean of -0.4 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
53 dressed · 8 never used
62Joe ThuneyG · Every snap100%64 snaps
77Trent BrownT · Every snap100%64 snaps
69Shaq MasonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
68LaAdrian WaddleT · Every snap100%64 snaps
60David AndrewsC · Every snap100%64 snaps
12Tom BradyQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
11Julian EdelmanWR · Full-time98%63 snaps
10Josh GordonWR · Full-time95%61 snaps
83Dwayne AllenTE · Full-time86%55 snaps
28James WhiteRB · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
15Chris HoganWR · Heavy rotation66%42 snaps
38Kenjon BarnerRB · Rotational27%17 snaps
46James DevelinFB · Situational23%15 snaps
13Phillip DorsettWR · Situational12%8 snaps
84Cordarrelle PattersonWR · Situational9%6 snaps
26Sony MichelRB · Situational9%6 snaps
75Ted KarrasC · Situational2%1 snap
74Cole CrostonT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Brian SchwenkeCKeionta DavisDEJohn SimonDEGeneo GrissomOLBBrian HoyerQBMarcus CannonTRob GronkowskiTEJacob HollisterTE
Chicago Bears
53 dressed · 7 never used
65Cody WhitehairC · Every snap100%82 snaps
70Bobby MassieT · Every snap100%82 snaps
75Kyle LongOG · Every snap100%82 snaps
72Charles Leno Jr.T · Every snap100%82 snaps
10Mitchell TrubiskyQB · Every snap100%82 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Full-time85%70 snaps
18Taylor GabrielWR · Heavy rotation78%64 snaps
12Allen RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation74%61 snaps
17Anthony MillerWR · Heavy rotation63%52 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation56%46 snaps
68James DanielsC · Heavy rotation54%44 snaps
29Tarik CohenRB · Heavy rotation51%42 snaps
64Eric KushOG · Rotational46%38 snaps
11Kevin WhiteWR · Situational24%20 snaps
15Josh BellamyWR · Situational22%18 snaps
88Dion SimsTE · Situational20%16 snaps
84Ben BrauneckerTE · Situational16%13 snaps
79Bradley SowellT · Situational9%7 snaps
4Chase DanielQB · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Marcus CooperCBNick WilliamsDTMichael BurtonFBKylie FittsLBRashaad CowardOTBryan WitzmannTJavon WimsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.O'Donnell punt−21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 6:05 · Bears · 4th & 8 at CHI 45 · gained nothing · -6.71 EP · −21.0% win probability
182 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 96 yards from the NE 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
45%
Yards
834
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0280%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.3467%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0456%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.7420%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.81100%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2520%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Patriots6Bears0
Patriots7Bears0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bears 9
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 35
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
Patriots7Bears3
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Patriots 28
Fumble lost1 play
Patriots7Bears9
Patriots7Bears10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Patriots 8
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Patriots7Bears16
Patriots7Bears17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Patriots 2
Patriots13Bears17
Patriots14Bears17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Patriots20Bears17
Patriots21Bears17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Patriots 36 to the Bears 5
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 43
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Patriots 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Bears 38 to the Patriots 40
3rd quarter46 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSix
Patriots21Bears23
Patriots21Bears24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Patriots 1
Patriots24Bears24
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bears 7
Patriots30Bears24
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 45
Patriots31Bears24
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Patriots 41
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 21 to the Patriots 38
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Bears 41
4th quarter50 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Patriots 35
Patriots37Bears24
Patriots38Bears24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 4 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bears 43 to the Bears 35
Patriots38Bears30
Patriots38Bears31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Patriots 11
Punt14 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Bears 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -1
Closing total
49
Patriots moneyline
-128
Bears moneyline
+116
Patriots closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 49; the game landed 69 — over by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 42°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Matt Nagy
CHI +13% win prob
(13:41) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles left end to NE 1 for 39 yards (54-D.Hightower).
3rd · 11:41CHI +11% win prob(11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan to CHI 47 for 20 yards (39-E.Jackson). PENALTY on CHI-39-E.Jackson, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CHI 47.
3rd · 14:16CHI +8% win prob(14:16) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at NE 40 for 16 yards (25-E.Rowe).
