2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Soldier Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Chicago Bears

NE -1 ✓O 49 ✓Patriots closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

New England Patriots 38–31. Biggest swing: Q3 6:05, NE +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:05NE — CHI CHI ball · 4th & 8NE 57%

(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:05NE +21% win prob(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 15:00NE +16% win prob(15:00) 26-S.Michel left tackle to NE 38 for no gain (98-B.Nichols). FUMBLES (98-B.Nichols), RECOVERED by CHI-98-B.Nichols at NE 36. 98-B.Nichols to NE 36 for no gain (26-S.Michel). NE-26-S.Michel was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q2 · 11:05CHI +16% win prob1-C.Parkey kicks 60 yards from CHI 35 to NE 5. 84-C.Patterson for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 6:46CHI +14% win prob(6:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CHI 23 for 19 yards (23-K.Fuller).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bears
Offensive plays	64	76
Total yards	381	453 (edge)
Yards per play	6.0	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.13 (edge)	-0.00
Success rate	52% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	59%	75%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.22 (edge)	-0.25
Third downs	6/13	8/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

26/50, 333 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-5.8 expected points added · -8.0% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

25/36, 277 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

14.7 expected points added · +1.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

6 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

10.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

James WhiteRB

11 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Trey BurtonTE

9/11 for 126 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 8.5 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Josh GordonWR

4/7 for 100 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 7.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	10	75	4:00	Touchdown
2	CHI	CHI 17	8	18	2:25	Punt
3	NE	NE 25	4	8	1:01	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 37	8	35	3:44	Turnover on downs
5	NE	—	1	0	0:06	Fumble
6	CHI	NE 24	6	24	2:45	Touchdown
7	NE	NE 18	4	18	1:08	Fumble
8	CHI	NE 36	10	28	3:46	Touchdown
9	NE	—	2	0	0:17	Defensive touchdown
10	CHI	CHI 25	5	4	1:02	Punt
11	NE	NE 36	13	64	5:48	Touchdown
12	CHI	CHI 25	8	18	2:20	Punt
13	NE	NE 4	6	20	1:24	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 38	3	42	0:14	End of half
15	CHI	CHI 42	8	63	2:56	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	10	49	4:16	Turnover on downs
17	CHI	CHI 25	6	4	1:55	Defensive touchdown
18	CHI	CHI 25	7	34	2:15	Interception
19	NE	NE 21	6	17	2:14	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 14	8	56	3:19	Interception
21	NE	NE 4	10	96	4:25	Touchdown
22	CHI	CHI 16	5	-10	0:53	Punt
23	NE	CHI 43	3	8	1:23	Interception
24	CHI	CHI 37	7	58	2:11	Touchdown
25	NE	NE 41	10	26	3:49	Punt
26	CHI	CHI 20	5	79	0:24	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 96 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	25/36	277	3	1	1	14.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James White	11	40	3.6	-0.9
Kenjon Barner	10	36	3.6	-0.8
Sony Michel	4	22	5.5	-3.9
Tom Brady	1	6	6.0	-0.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	4	4.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Josh Gordon	4	7	100	0	20%	7.0
Chris Hogan	6	7	63	0	20%	5.1
James White	8	10	57	2	29%	7.8
Julian Edelman	5	8	36	1	23%	1.2
Sony Michel	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Phillip Dorsett	1	1	8	0	3%	0.2
James Develin	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Patrick Chung	7	0	1
Kyle Van Noy	6	0	0
Dont'a Hightower	4	0	0
Devin McCourty	4	0	0
Malcom Brown	3	0	0
Lawrence Guy	3	0	0
Eric Rowe	2	0	0
Trey Flowers	1	1	1
Brandon King	1	1	0
Elandon Roberts	1	1	1

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	26/50	333	2	2	2	-5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	6	81	13.5	1	10.4
Jordan Howard	12	39	3.3	1	-0.9
Tarik Cohen	6	14	2.3	0	-2.9
Taylor Gabriel	1	0	0.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey Burton	9	11	126	1	23%	8.5
Tarik Cohen	8	13	69	1	27%	1.0
Kevin White	2	2	64	0	4%	0.5
Anthony Miller	2	7	35	0	15%	-3.3
Taylor Gabriel	3	4	26	0	8%	0.6
Jordan Howard	1	1	9	0	2%	0.5
Allen Robinson	1	5	4	0	10%	-4.0
Bradley Sowell	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4
Josh Bellamy	0	3	0	0	6%	-3.9
Dion Sims	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Danny Trevathan	9	0	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	5	0	0.0	1	2
Eddie Jackson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Roquan Smith	4	1	1.0	0	0
Adrian Amos	4	0	0.0	0	1
Bilal Nichols	3	1	0.0	0	0
Prince Amukamara	3	1	0.0	0	0
Bryce Callahan	2	1	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	3	0	0.0	0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -1
Closing total: 49
NE moneyline: -128
CHI moneyline: +116

Patriots closed -1 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 49; the game landed 69 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: NE 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Matt Nagy