2018 Week 7 · Mon, Oct 22, 2018 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New York Giants

Atlanta FalconsWinner

ATL -4.5 no coverU 52 ✓Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Atlanta Falcons 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 13:46, ATL +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 13:46NYG — ATL NYG ball · 3rd & 8ATL 81%

(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to ATL 10 for 53 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 13:46ATL +12% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to ATL 10 for 53 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q2 · 5:00ATL +9% win prob(5:00) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 17-M.Hall for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:29ATL +8% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Jones. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Thomas, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
Q3 · 11:44NYG +8% win prob(11:44) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 82-S.Simonson (27-D.Kazee) [54-F.Oluokun].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Falcons
Offensive plays	64	61
Total yards	435 (edge)	424
Yards per play	6.8	7.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.14	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	42%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	69%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27	0.28 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.15 (edge)
Third downs	5/12	7/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	21
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Eli ManningQB

27/38, 399 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.9 expected points added · +7.5% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

31/39, 379 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

17.4 expected points added · +16.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Tevin ColemanRB

11 att, 50 yds, 1 TD

-1.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYG

Saquon BarkleyRB

14 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

5/8 for 167 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Odell BeckhamWR

8/11 for 143 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 22	7	18	2:31	Punt
2	NYG	NYG 19	8	40	4:31	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 1	10	52	6:02	Punt
4	NYG	NYG 11	10	38	5:41	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 25	7	20	3:51	Punt
6	NYG	NYG 42	4	-8	1:32	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 14	4	86	1:01	Touchdown
8	NYG	NYG 10	12	77	4:01	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 25	7	15	0:47	Turnover on downs
10	NYG	—	1	0	0:03	End of half
11	NYG	NYG 25	9	74	3:23	Turnover on downs
12	ATL	ATL 2	11	73	5:58	Fumble
13	NYG	NYG 20	7	62	1:48	Turnover on downs
14	ATL	ATL 25	8	48	3:56	Turnover on downs
15	NYG	NYG 25	5	0	1:54	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 35	10	65	5:14	Touchdown
17	NYG	NYG 22	11	78	3:00	Touchdown
18	ATL	ATL 25	9	47	2:52	Turnover on downs
19	NYG	NYG 28	9	74	1:50	Touchdown
20	ATL	ATL 23	2	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Falcons gained 86 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Eli Manning	27/38	399	1	0	4	10.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Saquon Barkley	14	43	3.1	1	-2.0
Evan Engram	1	10	10.0	0	1.2
Eli Manning	3	7	2.3	0	-0.7
Elijhaa Penny	1	2	2.0	0	0.3
Odell Beckham	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sterling Shepard	5	8	167	0	22%	10.0
Odell Beckham	8	11	143	1	30%	12.1
Saquon Barkley	9	10	51	0	27%	-1.6
Evan Engram	2	4	16	0	11%	-1.0
Bennie Fowler	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Rhett Ellison	2	2	11	0	5%	1.6
Scott Simonson	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Landon Collins	7	1	0.0	0
Curtis Riley	6	1	0.0	0
Eli Apple	5	1	0.0	0
Janoris Jenkins	5	0	0.0	1
Dalvin Tomlinson	3	1	0.0	0
B.J. Hill	4	0	0.0	0
Alec Ogletree	2	1	0.0	0
Kareem Martin	2	1	0.0	0
Damon Harrison	1	2	0.0	0
B.W. Webb	1	1	1.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	31/39	379	1	0	3	17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tevin Coleman	11	50	4.5	1	-1.2
Ito Smith	7	16	2.3	0	-2.3
Matt Ryan	2	1	0.5	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Julio Jones	9	12	104	0	33%	0.5
Marvin Hall	3	3	63	1	8%	4.5
Austin Hooper	3	4	48	0	11%	3.7
Calvin Ridley	5	6	43	0	17%	2.8
Tevin Coleman	2	2	32	0	6%	1.7
Ito Smith	2	2	29	0	6%	3.5
Justin Hardy	2	2	24	0	6%	0.5
Mohamed Sanu	2	2	21	0	6%	2.9
Eric Saubert	1	1	8	0	3%	0.6
Ricky Ortiz	2	2	7	0	6%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Desmond Trufant	7	1	0.0	0
Foyesade Oluokun	3	3	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	2	3	2.0	0
Brian Poole	1	4	0.0	0
Damontae Kazee	3	2	0.0	1
Robert Alford	2	2	0.0	0
Sharrod Neasman	4	0	0.0	0
Takk McKinley	3	1	1.0	0
Deadrin Senat	2	2	0.0	0
De'Vondre Campbell	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ATL -4.5
Closing total: 52
NYG moneyline: +187
ATL moneyline: -209

Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 52; the game landed 43 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: —
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: NYG 11 days · ATL 8 days
Coaches: Pat Shurmur vs Dan Quinn