For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Atlanta Falcons 23, Giants 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 13:46, 3rd and 8, on Sterling Shepard — 11.6 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 13:46 · 3rd and 8
Sterling Shepard
Giants
(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to ATL 10 for 53 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Atlanta Falcons 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 13:46, Giants +11.6% win probability on one snap.
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marvin HallFalconsQ2 5:00(5:00) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 17-M.Hall for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.5pts
Matt RyanFalconsQ2 0:29(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Jones. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Thomas, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
8.4pts
What separated them
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Giants owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Falcons at 1 giveaway.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Falcons won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 12 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Falcons at 6 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Giants161 of 174 plays carry both curves
(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to ATL 10 for 53 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
Swing −11.6 for FalconsExpected points −4.93 for FalconsThe model had Giants 4 points higher than the market did.play 88
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 13:46ATL +12% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to ATL 10 for 53 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 5:00ATL +9% win prob(5:00) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 17-M.Hall for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:29ATL +8% win prob(:29) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep right to 11-J.Jones. PENALTY on NYG-31-M.Thomas, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at ATL 40 - No Play.
3rd · 11:44NYG +8% win prob(11:44) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 82-S.Simonson (27-D.Kazee) [54-F.Oluokun].
1st · 4:39ATL +7% win prob(4:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu pushed ob at ATL 42 for 16 yards (21-L.Collins).
2nd · 4:02ATL +7% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham to NYG 38 for 26 yards (34-B.Poole; 27-D.Kazee) [95-JA.Crawford].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marvin Hall's 47-yard touchdown catch with 5:00 left in the 2nd put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd5:00Marvin Hall·47-yd TD catch47-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt RyanLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:54Aldrick Rosas·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+33–7
2nd0:08Giorgio Tavecchio·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+33–10
3rd3:55Aldrick Rosas·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap Z.DeOssie+36–10
4th15:00Giorgio Tavecchio·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+36–13
4th4:52Saquon Barkley·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+612–20
4th2:00Giorgio Tavecchio·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+312–23
4th0:09Odell Beckham·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Eli Manningfrom Eli Manning · two-point good+820–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryFalcons
Giants5–4Falcons
435Total yards424
6.8Yards per play7.0
42%Success rate44%
42%Third-down rate54%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
8Explosive plays6
23First downs21
4Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Giants ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Giants: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.15Falcons: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Giants: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.28Falcons: +0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.15Giants: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.15Falcons: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Falcons’s 61 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Falcons 2.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's sack or hit rate, 18.2%, is past their previous high of 12.9% in week 5 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.21× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Falcons18.2%
leaned — got home · +6.7 vs their 11.5%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 18.2%, 6.7 points above their season mean of 11.5% and 1.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(13:46) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to ATL 10 for 53 yards (21-D.Trufant). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q3 13:46 · Giants · 3rd & 8 at NYG 37 · gained 53 · +4.93 EP · +15.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 86 yards from the ATL 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
39%
Yards
858
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1582%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0370%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.3773%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3655%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.8960%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.0133%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Falcons 46
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 19 to the Falcons 41
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 1 to midfield
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 11 to the Giants 24
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 48
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 40
Punt4 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Giants0Falcons6
Giants0Falcons7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Falcons 14 to the Giants 47
Giants3Falcons7
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Falcons 9
Giants3Falcons10
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Giants 22
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Falcons 1
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Falcons 2 to the Giants 32
Giants6Falcons10
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Falcons 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Giants 33
4th quarter54 plays
Giants6Falcons13
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 33
Giants6Falcons19
Giants6Falcons20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Giants 30
Giants12Falcons20
Touchdown12 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Falcons 2
Giants12Falcons23
Field goal14 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Giants 36
Giants18Falcons23
Giants20Falcons23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 28 to the Falcons 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -4.5
Closing total
52
Giants moneyline
+187
Falcons moneyline
-209
Falcons closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 52; the game landed 43 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
open · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 53°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Giants 11 days · Falcons 8 days
Coaches
Pat Shurmur vs Dan Quinn
3rd · 5:39ATL +7% win prob(5:39) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham to ATL 29 for 51 yards (41-S.Neasman). Penalty on ATL-23-R.Alford, Defensive Holding, declined.
2nd · 9:57ATL +7% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to ATL 37 for 10 yards (23-B.Webb; 52-A.Ogletree).
