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Tennessee Titans 19 at Los Angeles Chargers 20. Final.
Chargers -6.5 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 7
Los Angeles Chargers 20, Titans 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:31, on Taywan Taylor — 20.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:31
Taywan Taylor
Chargers
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.
Chargers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Chargers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:31, Chargers +20.7% win probability on one snap.
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyrell WilliamsChargersQ1 9:44(9:44) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.0pts
Denzel PerrymanChargersQ2 0:39(:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman (54-M.Ingram) at LAC 4. 52-D.Perryman to LAC 20 for 16 yards (22-D.Henry).
15.1pts
What separated them
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.23 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 15 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 9 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Titans142 of 151 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:31Titans 19 — Chargers 20TEN ballLAC 73%
Titans 27%Chargers 73%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.
Swing +20.7 for ChargersExpected points +0.95 for ChargersThe model had Titans 2 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:31TEN +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.
2nd · 0:39TEN +15% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman (54-M.Ingram) at LAC 4. 52-D.Perryman to LAC 20 for 16 yards (22-D.Henry).
1st · 9:44LAC +13% win prob(9:44) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:35LAC +13% win prob(:35) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:52LAC +9% win prob(13:52) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:28LAC +8% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 19-T.Sharpe to LAC 35 for 19 yards (57-J.Brown).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyrell Williams's 75-yard touchdown catch with 9:44 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:47Ryan Succop·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–0
1st9:44Tyrell Williams·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+73–7
1st1:51Michael Badgley·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+33–10
2nd12:55Ryan Succop·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+36–10
3rd13:52Mike Williams·55-yd TD catch55-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+76–17
4th12:33Michael Badgley·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder D.Jones · snap M.Windt+313–20
4th0:35Luke Stocker·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · two-point no good+619–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryChargers
Titans6–2Chargers
390Total yards345
5.7Yards per play8.0
54%Success rate49%
60%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays5
24First downs14
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Titans: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.32Chargers: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Titans: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.57Chargers: +0.57 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Titans: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.15Chargers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 68 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Chargers’s 43 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Chargers 4.
NoteTitans outgained Chargers 390-345 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 7Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, +5.9 pts, is past their previous high of +3.2 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 6.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.6% in week 6 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.3% in week 6 against 55.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Chargers7.5%
inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.9 pts, 5.8 points above their season mean of 0.1 pts and 1.7 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass−19% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman (54-M.Ingram) at LAC 4. 52-D.Perryman to LAC 20 for 16 yards (22-D.Henry).
Q2 0:39 · Titans · 1st & goal at LAC 10 · gained nothing · -4.73 EP · −19.2% win probability
140 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 151 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 89 yards from the TEN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
151 of 151 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
151
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
50%
Yards
734
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.1859%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.1381%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0138%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.6325%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0850%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Titans3Chargers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Chargers 8
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Titans3Chargers6
Titans3Chargers7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 23 to the Titans 25
Titans3Chargers10
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Titans 11
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Chargers 43
2nd quarter33 plays
Titans6Chargers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Chargers 15
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 18 to the Titans 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted18 plays, from the Titans 5 to the Chargers 10
The period ended2 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Titans6Chargers16
Titans6Chargers17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 45
Titans12Chargers17
Titans13Chargers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 42 to the Chargers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Titans 25
The period ended9 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Titans 39
4th quarter44 plays
Titans13Chargers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 10
No good10 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Chargers 33
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 41 to the Titans 43
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back and four tight endsDefense on the fieldSix linemen, two linebackers and three backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEleven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Titans19Chargers20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxEight defenders
Touchdown17 plays, from the Titans 11 to the Chargers 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
