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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Wembley Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2018 Week 7
It turned at Q4 0:31, on Taywan Taylor — 20.7 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Chargers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:31, Chargers +20.7% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:31
Taywan Taylor
Chargers
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.
20.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Chargers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.57 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.23 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 15 on third down, against Chargers at 4 of 9 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyrell Williams's 75-yard touchdown catch with 9:44 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Tyrell Williams75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip RiversLead never changed again+73–7
Luke Stocker1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariota · two-point no good+619–208 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Titanscategory by categoryChargers
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 68 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Chargers’s 43 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Chargers 4.
Titans outgained Chargers 390-345 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's pass rate over expected, +5.9 pts, is past their previous high of +3.2 pts in week 2 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 7.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.6% in week 6 against 17.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 31.3% in week 6 against 55.9% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · +0.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 10 pts
Over Expected room →Titans-8.3 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -7.7 pts, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (−0.09× that swing) · 67 snaps
Chargers5.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.8 vs their 0.1 pts, and they swing ±3.4 week to week (+1.70× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 78%
Tendencies room →Titans49.0%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 48.0%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 51 early downs
Chargers55.9%right on their number · +3.3 vs their 52.6%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.34× that swing) · 34 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -27% to 55%
Fourth Down room →Titans25.0%inside their normal wobble · +10.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±16.0 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Chargers—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 21.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 32%
Tendencies room →Titans17.9%inside their normal wobble · +4.5 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Chargers7.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±5.6 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.9 pts, 5.8 points above their season mean of 0.1 pts and 1.7 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
53 dressed · 8 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Los Angeles Chargers
53 dressed · 8 never used
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Who moved the needle
Passing · LAC
19/26, 306 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
15.8 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected
Passing · TEN
24/32, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
9.4 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected
Receiving · LAC
4/4 for 118 yds, 1 TD
16% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman (54-M.Ingram) at LAC 4. 52-D.Perryman to LAC 20 for 16 yards (22-D.Henry).
Q2 0:39 · Titans · 1st & goal at LAC 10 · gained nothing · -4.73 EP · −19.2% win probability
140 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 151 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 89 yards from the TEN 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Titans3
Chargers0Titans3Chargers6Titans3Chargers7Titans3Chargers10Titans6Chargers10Titans6Chargers16Titans6Chargers17Titans12Chargers17Titans13Chargers17Titans13Chargers20Titans19Chargers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Titans at Chargers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 24/32 | 237 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +9.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Derrick Henry |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajae Sharpe | 7 | 9 | 101 | 0 | 28% | +12.0 |
| Dion Lewis | 6 | 6 | 64 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayon Brown | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Ryan | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Wesley Woodyard |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 19/26 | 306 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +15.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2018_07_TEN_LAC
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chargers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 46; the game landed 39 — under by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
| 12 |
| 33 |
| 2.8 |
| 1 |
| −1.0 |
| David Fluellen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| +5.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 6% | +2.2 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | −3.5 |
| Luke Stocker | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 6% | +3.7 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 22% | −5.5 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kendrick Lewis | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamalei Correa | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Cruikshank | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jurrell Casey | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Philip Rivers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Williams | 4 | 4 | 118 | 1 | 16% | +9.0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 | 20% | +8.5 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 55 | 1 | 12% | +2.9 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 28% | −1.8 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +1.3 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 12% | −0.2 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Phillips | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Denzel Perryman | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Desmond King | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Derwin James | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Philon | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Mebane | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Melvin Ingram | 5 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jatavis Brown | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Casey Hayward | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Liuget | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
