2018 Week 7 · Sun, Oct 21, 2018 · Wembley Stadium

Tennessee Titans

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -6.5 no coverU 46 ✓Chargers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Chargers 20–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:31, TEN +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:31TEN — LAC TEN ballLAC 73%

TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:31TEN +21% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 13-T.Taylor is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. #31 Adrian Phillips tipped the pass.
Q2 · 0:39TEN +15% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle intended for 81-J.Smith INTERCEPTED by 52-D.Perryman (54-M.Ingram) at LAC 4. 52-D.Perryman to LAC 20 for 16 yards (22-D.Henry).
Q1 · 9:44LAC +13% win prob(9:44) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:35LAC +13% win prob(:35) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Chargers
Offensive plays	68	43
Total yards	390 (edge)	345
Yards per play	5.7	8.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.32 (edge)
Success rate	54% (edge)	49%
Dropback rate	59%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.57 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Titans outgained Chargers 390–345 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Philip RiversQB

19/26, 306 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

15.8 expected points added · +13.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Marcus MariotaQB

24/32, 237 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

9.4 expected points added · +4.0% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Dion LewisRB

13 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Tyrell WilliamsWR

4/4 for 118 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Receiving · TEN

Tajae SharpeWR

7/9 for 101 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 36	12	55	5:16	Turnover on downs
2	LAC	LAC 25	3	75	0:09	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 23	5	3	2:40	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 22	10	67	5:07	Turnover on downs
5	TEN	TEN 35	9	50	3:57	Turnover on downs
6	LAC	LAC 18	7	34	3:09	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 5	16	100	9:13	Interception
8	LAC	LAC 20	1	1	0:29	End of half
9	LAC	LAC 25	5	75	1:14	Touchdown
10	TEN	LAC 42	9	42	4:03	Touchdown
11	LAC	LAC 25	7	21	4:05	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 19	4	17	1:42	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 34	14	56	6:27	Turnover on downs
14	TEN	TEN 33	10	34	4:08	Turnover on downs
15	LAC	LAC 41	7	16	3:26	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 11	14	89	4:24	Touchdown
17	LAC	TEN 49	2	0	0:31	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 100 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	24/32	237	1	1	2	9.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dion Lewis	13	91	7.0	0	2.3
Marcus Mariota	7	38	5.4	0	0.6
Derrick Henry	12	33	2.8	1	-1.0
David Fluellen	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tajae Sharpe	7	9	101	0	28%	12.0
Dion Lewis	6	6	64	0	19%	5.3
Derrick Henry	2	2	32	0	6%	2.2
Jonnu Smith	2	3	11	0	9%	-3.5
Luke Stocker	2	2	11	1	6%	3.7
Corey Davis	3	7	10	0	22%	-5.5
Taywan Taylor	1	2	8	0	6%	-1.0
Cameron Batson	1	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jayon Brown	5	1	1.0	0
Logan Ryan	4	0	0.0	2
Wesley Woodyard	3	1	0.0	0
Kendrick Lewis	3	1	0.0	0
DaQuan Jones	2	1	0.0	0
Kamalei Correa	2	1	0.5	0
Adoree' Jackson	3	0	0.0	0
Dane Cruikshank	2	0	0.0	0
Harold Landry	1	1	0.0	0
Jurrell Casey	1	1	0.5	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	19/26	306	2	0	2	15.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	12	42	3.5	-0.7
Mike Williams	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Justin Jackson	2	3	1.5	-1.2
Philip Rivers	1	-1	-1.0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyrell Williams	4	4	118	1	16%	9.0
Keenan Allen	5	5	72	0	20%	8.5
Mike Williams	1	3	55	1	12%	2.9
Austin Ekeler	5	7	26	0	28%	-1.8
Travis Benjamin	1	1	13	0	4%	0.8
Justin Jackson	1	1	11	0	4%	1.3
Antonio Gates	2	3	11	0	12%	-0.2
Virgil Green	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Phillips	6	1	0.0	0	1
Denzel Perryman	5	2	0.0	1	1
Desmond King	6	1	0.0	0	1
Derwin James	3	3	0.0	0	0
Darius Philon	4	1	1.0	0	0
Brandon Mebane	5	0	0.0	0	0
Melvin Ingram	5	0	1.0	0	2
Jatavis Brown	4	0	0.0	0	0
Casey Hayward	4	0	0.0	0	0
Corey Liuget	3	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -6.5
Closing total: 46
TEN moneyline: +245
LAC moneyline: -277

Chargers closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 46; the game landed 39 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 66°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Walt Coleman
Rest: TEN 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Anthony Lynn