2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

Carolina PanthersWinner

BAL -2.5 upsetO 44 ✓Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 36–21. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, BAL +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 15:00BAL — CAR BAL ball · 2nd & 4BAL 58%

(15:00) 34-A.Collins up the middle to BAL 25 for -6 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by CAR-92-V.Butler at BAL 12. 92-V.Butler to BAL 12 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 15:00BAL +14% win prob(15:00) 34-A.Collins up the middle to BAL 25 for -6 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by CAR-92-V.Butler at BAL 12. 92-V.Butler to BAL 12 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
Q2 · 13:30CAR +11% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:26CAR +8% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton to CAR 46 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CAR-12-D.Moore at CAR 46. 12-D.Moore pushed ob at BAL 17 for 37 yards (24-B.Carr).
Q1 · 0:42CAR +7% win prob(:42) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Panthers
Offensive plays	64	62
Total yards	325	388 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.03	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	50% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	73%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.06	0.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	0.10
Third downs	6/12	6/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

21/29, 219 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +13.8% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Joe FlaccoQB

22/39, 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-6.5 expected points added · -5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Cam NewtonQB

10 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Alex CollinsRB

11 att, 49 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

5/6 for 90 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Greg OlsenTE

4/4 for 56 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 25	13	80	7:10	Touchdown
2	CAR	CAR 25	9	28	3:19	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 1	4	9	1:41	Punt
4	CAR	CAR 46	5	54	2:14	Touchdown
5	BAL	BAL 25	3	-5	0:43	Fumble
6	CAR	BAL 12	4	12	1:28	Touchdown
7	BAL	BAL 25	8	31	3:37	Punt
8	CAR	CAR 1	11	99	6:03	Touchdown
9	BAL	BAL 25	11	30	2:53	Interception
10	CAR	CAR 29	6	40	0:52	Turnover on downs
11	CAR	CAR 25	8	17	3:13	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 35	6	19	1:28	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 46	4	6	2:18	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 8	6	28	2:30	Interception
15	CAR	BAL 49	5	23	2:33	Turnover on downs
16	BAL	BAL 25	12	75	2:48	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 15	11	85	5:18	Touchdown
18	BAL	BAL 25	5	-6	1:01	Punt
19	CAR	CAR 46	11	24	5:41	Turnover on downs
20	BAL	BAL 36	9	64	2:08	Touchdown
21	CAR	CAR 40	3	0	1:02	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 99 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Flacco	22/39	192	1	2	2	-6.5
Lamar Jackson	4/5	46	1	0	0	2.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alex Collins	11	49	4.5	1	0.5
Lamar Jackson	3	26	8.7	0	2.4
Joe Flacco	2	14	7.0	0	2.3
Gus Edwards	2	12	6.0	0	0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Willie Snead	5	11	54	0	25%	-6.3
Mark Andrews	4	5	31	0	11%	3.4
Michael Crabtree	3	5	31	0	11%	-0.3
Hayden Hurst	2	3	29	1	7%	2.3
John Brown	3	7	28	0	16%	-0.3
Chris Moore	2	2	19	0	5%	1.8
Javorius Allen	3	5	18	1	11%	0.3
Alex Collins	2	2	14	0	5%	0.5
Gus Edwards	1	1	7	0	2%	0.3
Nick Boyle	1	3	7	0	7%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
C.J. Mosley	4	7	0
Matt Judon	4	6	0
Tony Jefferson	2	5	0
Jimmy Smith	3	3	1
Eric Weddle	4	1	0
Brandon Williams	1	3	0
Patrick Onwuasor	3	1	0
Brent Urban	1	2	0
Michael Pierce	1	1	0
Tavon Young	2	0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	21/29	219	2	0	0	9.9
Taylor Heinicke	1/1	13	0	0	0	1.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Newton	10	52	5.2	1	-0.1
Christian McCaffrey	14	45	3.2	1	0.4
D.J. Moore	2	39	19.5	0	2.8
C.J. Anderson	5	20	4.0	0	-0.7
Taylor Heinicke	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	5	6	90	0	22%	5.2
Greg Olsen	4	4	56	1	15%	7.6
Curtis Samuel	3	3	28	0	11%	2.2
Devin Funchess	3	3	27	0	11%	1.3
Ian Thomas	1	1	15	0	4%	0.8
Christian McCaffrey	4	6	11	1	22%	-1.6
Jarius Wright	2	3	5	0	11%	-0.8
Damiere Byrd	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	5	7	0.0	0	0
Eric Reid	4	3	1.0	0	0
Thomas Davis	1	4	0.0	0	1
Luke Kuechly	4	1	0.0	0	1
James Bradberry	3	1	0.0	0	0
Mike Adams	3	0	0.0	1	1
Captain Munnerlyn	2	1	0.0	1	1
Donte Jackson	1	1	1.0	0	1
Kyle Love	1	1	0.0	0	0
Wes Horton	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 44
BAL moneyline: -143
CAR moneyline: +129

Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 57 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 61°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Peter Morelli
Rest: BAL 7 days · CAR 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Ron Rivera