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2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
RavensBaltimore21
BY 15final margin
PanthersCarolina36
Baltimore Ravens 21 at Carolina Panthers 36. Final.
Ravens -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
Carolina Panthers 36, Ravens 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 2nd and 4, on Alex Collins — 14.4 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 2nd and 4
Alex Collins
Panthers
(15:00) 34-A.Collins up the middle to BAL 25 for -6 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by CAR-92-V.Butler at BAL 12. 92-V.Butler to BAL 12 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
O 44 ✓
Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 36–21. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Panthers +14.4% win probability on one snap.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Greg OlsenPanthersQ2 13:30(13:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.1pts
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ2 5:26(5:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton to CAR 46 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CAR-12-D.Moore at CAR 46. 12-D.Moore pushed ob at BAL 17 for 37 yards (24-B.Carr).
8.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Panthers won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Ravens at 5 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Ravens167 of 177 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 34-A.Collins up the middle to BAL 25 for -6 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by CAR-92-V.Butler at BAL 12. 92-V.Butler to BAL 12 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
Swing +14.4 for PanthersExpected points +5.90 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 16 points higher than the market did.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00BAL +14% win prob(15:00) 34-A.Collins up the middle to BAL 25 for -6 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by CAR-92-V.Butler at BAL 12. 92-V.Butler to BAL 12 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
2nd · 13:30CAR +11% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:26CAR +8% win prob(5:26) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton to CAR 46 for -9 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CAR-12-D.Moore at CAR 46. 12-D.Moore pushed ob at BAL 17 for 37 yards (24-B.Carr).
1st · 0:42CAR +7% win prob(:42) 22-C.McCaffrey left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:23CAR +7% win prob(10:23) (Shotgun) 34-A.Collins right tackle to CAR 49 for 5 yards (92-V.Butler; 58-T.Davis). PENALTY on CAR-95-D.Poe, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 49.
2nd · 9:05CAR +6% win prob(9:05) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to CAR 35 for 33 yards (57-C.Mosley).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Olsen's 11-yard touchdown catch with 13:30 left in the 2nd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Panthers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Ravens: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.22Panthers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Ravens: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.31Panthers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.29Ravens: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.10Panthers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 64 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Panthers’s 62 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Panthers 5.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 16.1%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Panthers14.9%
inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.57× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.0%, 19.3 points above their season mean of 50.7% and 1.3 times their own 14.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Collins up−13% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(15:00) 34-A.Collins up the middle to BAL 25 for -6 yards (93-K.Love). FUMBLES (93-K.Love), touched at BAL 20, RECOVERED by CAR-92-V.Butler at BAL 12. 92-V.Butler to BAL 12 for no gain (73-M.Yanda).
Q2 15:00 · Ravens · 2nd & 4 at BAL 31 · lost 11 · -5.90 EP · −13.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 99 yards from the CAR 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
43%
Yards
711
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1678%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.3377%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12+0.0342%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0371%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3414%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7+0.150%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0133%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.7440%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Ravens6Panthers0
Ravens7Panthers0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Panthers 14
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Ravens 47
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 1 to the Ravens 10
Ravens7Panthers6
Ravens7Panthers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Ravens 11
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends, one receiver and one linemanDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Ravens7Panthers13
Ravens7Panthers14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 12 to the Ravens 10
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Panthers 44
Ravens7Panthers20
Ravens7Panthers21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 1 to the Ravens 6
Intercepted16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to midfield
Ravens7Panthers24
Field goal8 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Ravens 36
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 42
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Panthers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Ravens 48
Intercepted6 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Ravens 36
Ravens7Panthers27
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 49 to the Ravens 26
Ravens13Panthers27
Ravens14Panthers27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Panthers 9
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Ravens14Panthers33
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 15 to the Ravens 12
Punt6 plays
Ravens14Panthers36
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Ravens 8
Ravens20Panthers36
Ravens21Panthers36
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Panthers 26
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -2.5
Closing total
44
Ravens moneyline
-143
Panthers moneyline
+129
Ravens closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 57 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 60°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Peter Morelli
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Ron Rivera
1st · 4:40CAR +5% win prob(4:40) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to BAL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-10-C.Samuel.
2nd · 1:06BAL +5% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right intended for 37-J.Allen INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams at CAR 36. 29-M.Adams to CAR 29 for -7 yards (37-J.Allen).
Ravenscategory by categoryPanthers
Ravens6
Panthers0
