2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Heinz Field

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -8.5 ✓O 47.5 ✓Steelers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Pittsburgh Steelers 33–18. Biggest swing: Q2 13:33, CLE +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:33CLE — PIT CLE ball · 4th & 8PIT 52%

(13:33) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:33CLE +10% win prob(13:33) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Q2 · 11:35PIT +10% win prob(11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 12:43PIT +7% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 45 for 15 yards (21-D.Ward).
Q1 · 2:38PIT +7% win prob(2:38) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Steelers
Offensive plays	60	67
Total yards	237	422 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.14	0.12 (edge)
Success rate	35%	52% (edge)
Dropback rate	67%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

24/36, 257 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

8.0 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

22/36, 180 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-5.8 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

James ConnerRB

24 att, 146 yds, 2 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

18 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Antonio BrownWR

6/8 for 74 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

James ConnerRB

5/6 for 66 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · 5.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 18	12	66	5:50	Turnover on downs
2	PIT	PIT 11	5	13	2:18	Punt
3	CLE	CLE 40	5	3	0:48	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 38	3	4	1:10	Interception
5	CLE	CLE 44	6	29	2:20	Turnover on downs
6	PIT	PIT 25	5	-1	2:07	Punt
7	CLE	PIT 46	5	23	1:58	Turnover on downs
8	PIT	PIT 31	7	69	2:03	Touchdown
9	CLE	CLE 25	9	31	4:06	Interception
10	PIT	PIT 13	17	86	7:12	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 25	9	53	3:02	Fumble
13	CLE	CLE 29	4	1	1:25	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 34	5	20	1:41	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 4	1	1	0:45	Turnover on downs
16	PIT	PIT 24	6	7	2:43	Touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 25	7	75	2:42	Touchdown
18	CLE	CLE 21	5	-4	1:27	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 45	7	31	2:46	Turnover on downs
20	CLE	CLE 24	5	-6	2:29	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 42	4	2	1:28	Punt
22	CLE	CLE 8	5	11	1:51	Punt
23	PIT	PIT 35	11	70	5:37	Touchdown
24	CLE	CLE 25	11	75	1:58	Touchdown
25	PIT	PIT 9	2	0	0:06	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	22/36	180	2	1	2	-5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Nick Chubb	18	65	3.6	-2.5
Baker Mayfield	1	9	9.0	1.6
Duke Johnson	2	0	0.0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jarvis Landry	8	12	39	0	36%	-3.7
Antonio Callaway	5	6	36	1	18%	1.1
Seth DeValve	2	2	28	1	6%	3.2
Dontrell Hilliard	1	1	24	0	3%	1.4
Damion Ratley	1	4	21	0	12%	-0.3
Duke Johnson	2	3	16	0	9%	0.4
Nick Chubb	2	3	10	0	9%	-0.9
Darren Fells	1	1	6	0	3%	0.2
Breshad Perriman	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Jamie Collins	4	7	0	0
Denzel Ward	4	2	0	1
T.J. Carrie	6	0	0	0
Derrick Kindred	5	0	1	1
Jabrill Peppers	3	1	0	0
Damarious Randall	4	0	0	1
Christian Kirksey	2	2	0	1
Briean Boddy-Calhoun	2	1	0	0
Trevon Coley	2	1	0	0
Brian Price	1	1	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	24/36	257	2	1	1	8.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Conner	24	146	6.1	2	4.1
Jaylen Samuels	4	17	4.3	0	0.2
Ben Roethlisberger	2	6	3.0	0	1.1
Joshua Dobbs	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Antonio Brown	6	8	74	2	24%	6.2
James Conner	5	6	66	0	18%	5.1
Vance McDonald	3	3	47	0	9%	4.1
JuJu Smith-Schuster	4	6	33	0	18%	-1.3
Justin Hunter	2	4	15	0	12%	-2.0
Stevan Ridley	2	2	13	0	6%	-4.7
Jesse James	2	3	9	0	9%	-0.5
Ryan Switzer	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
T.J. Watt	5	2	1.0	0	0
Stephon Tuitt	2	4	1.0	0	0
Jon Bostic	1	3	0.0	0	0
Mike Hilton	3	1	0.0	0	1
Sean Davis	3	1	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	1	0.0	0	0
Joe Haden	3	0	0.0	1	2
L.J. Fort	3	0	0.0	0	0
Coty Sensabaugh	3	0	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -8.5
Closing total: 47.5
CLE moneyline: +328
PIT moneyline: -378

Steelers closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 15.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 51 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: CLE 7 days · PIT 14 days
Coaches: Hue Jackson vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.