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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Browns169 of 178 plays carry both curves
(13:33) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
Swing +10.2 for SteelersExpected points +3.84 for SteelersThe model had Browns 24 points higher than the market did.play 44
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:33CLE +10% win prob(13:33) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
2nd · 11:35PIT +10% win prob(11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 12:43PIT +7% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 45 for 15 yards (21-D.Ward).
1st · 2:38PIT +7% win prob(2:38) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
3rd · 12:09CLE +7% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 22-S.Ridley to CLE 22 for 3 yards (26-D.Kindred). FUMBLES (26-D.Kindred), RECOVERED by CLE-21-D.Ward at CLE 20. 21-D.Ward to CLE 29 for 9 yards (81-J.James).
2nd · 7:25CLE +6% win prob(7:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 18-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden at PIT 13. 23-J.Haden to PIT 13 for no gain.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Antonio Brown's 43-yard touchdown catch with 11:35 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:15Greg Joseph·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+33–0
1st2:38Greg Joseph·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap C.Hughlett+36–0
2nd11:35Antonio Brown·43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben RoethlisbergerLead never changed again+76–7
2nd0:10Antonio Brown·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+76–14
3rd8:13Steelers·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+26–16
Steelers ahead 8–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.14Browns: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.12Steelers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Browns: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.08Steelers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Browns: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.18Steelers: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 60 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Steelers’s 67 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CLE's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 10.9% in week 1.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 7.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 25 pts
off script — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−2.09× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers17.5%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 18.2%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.10× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 10.2 points below their season mean of 12.9% and 2.1 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:35 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at CLE 43 · gained 43 · +3.97 EP · +12.5% win probability
167 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 87 yards from the PIT 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
40%
Yards
658
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.2656%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1782%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.0670%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10-0.2710%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR7-0.3414%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Browns3Steelers0
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 18 to the Steelers 13
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 11 to the Steelers 19
Punt5 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 42
Browns6Steelers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 44 to the Steelers 25
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 28
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter46 plays
No good4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Browns6Steelers6
Browns6Steelers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Browns 43
Intercepted9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 44
Browns6Steelers13
Browns6Steelers14
Touchdown23 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Browns 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 25
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 34
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Browns 46
Browns6Steelers16
Drive ended2 plays, from the Browns 4 to the Browns 5
Browns12Steelers16
Touchdown9 plays
Browns12Steelers22
Browns12Steelers23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Browns 12
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Browns 41
4th quarter46 plays
Browns12Steelers26
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 22
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 31
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 42 to the Steelers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 20
Browns12Steelers32
Browns12Steelers33
Touchdown14 plays, from the Steelers 35 to the Browns 22
Browns18Steelers33
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Steelers 24
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
