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2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium
23
30
Kansas City Chiefs 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:12, KC +8% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 70 | 54 |
| Total yards | 411 (edge) | 340 |
| Yards per play | 5.9 | 6.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.05 | 0.15 (edge) |
| Success rate | 51% (edge) | 44% |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 69% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 | 0.32 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.09 (edge) | -0.22 |
| Third downs | 4/12 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 11 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 2 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Broncos outgained Chiefs 411–340 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · KC
24/34, 303 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
12.3 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
23/34, 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.6 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 8 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 2 | KC | KC 37 | 4 | 0 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 19 | 9 | 81 | 4:17 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | KC | KC 37 | 12 | 60 | 5:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 19 | 12 | 49 | 5:37 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | KC | KC 45 | 5 | 55 | 2:10 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 26 | 8 | 13 | 4:13 | Punt | |
| 8 | KC | KC 8 | 9 | 87 | 4:24 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 25 | 7 | 75 | 0:49 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | KC | — | 1 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 11 | KC | KC 17 | 11 | 72 | 4:44 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 19 | 6 | 6 | 3:11 | Punt | |
| 13 | KC | DEN 32 | 5 | 32 | 1:53 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 25 | 14 | 85 | 5:15 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | KC | KC 25 | 3 | 11 | 0:31 | Interception | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 39 | 4 | 20 | 2:10 | Fumble | |
| 17 | KC | KC 46 | 6 | 13 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 20 | 4 | 21 | 1:18 | Interception | |
| 19 | KC | KC 45 | 4 | 4 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 20 | DEN | DEN 12 | 4 | 6 | 2:07 | Punt | |
| 21 | KC | KC 27 | 4 | -4 | 1:03 | Punt | |
| 22 | DEN | DEN 36 | 10 | 46 | 2:12 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | KC | DEN 37 | 5 | 10 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 24 | DEN | DEN 15 | 1 | 1 | 0:04 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 87 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 23/34 | 262 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 1 | 1.8 |
| Devontae Booker | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 0.9 |
| Case Keenum | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 0.1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 4 | 78 | 0 | 12% | 5.4 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 | 12% | 3.1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 3 | 7 | 30 | 0 | 21% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Roby | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Davis | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Simmons | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Josey Jewell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/34 | 303 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -3.7 |
| Matt LaCosse | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 15% | 0.7 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3% | 4.5 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 12% | -0.9 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | 0.3 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15% | 1.8 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Shaquil Barrett | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Parks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Von Miller | 0 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.7 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | -1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Watkins | 8 | 9 | 107 | 2 | 29% | 9.4 |
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 10 | 79 | 1 | 32% | 1.9 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 13% | 5.9 |
| Kareem Hunt | 5 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 19% | 1.7 |
| Anthony Sherman | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | -1.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hitchens | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Ragland | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Lucas | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Ford | 4 | 1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Steven Nelson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Fuller | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ron Parker | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breeland Speaks | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian O'Daniel | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
