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Denver Broncos 23 at Kansas City Chiefs 30. Final.
Chiefs -8.5 no cover53 push
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
Kansas City Chiefs 30, Broncos 23 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:12, 3rd and 10, on Tim Patrick — 8.0 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:12 · 3rd and 10
Tim Patrick
Broncos
(:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:12, Broncos +8.0% win probability on one snap.
8.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Emmanuel SandersBroncosQ1 9:52(9:52) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at KC 14 for 49 yards (38-R.Parker).
7.9pts
Tyreek HillChiefsQ2 10:59(10:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to DEN 14 for 40 yards (29-B.Roby).
7.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 6 chunk plays.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.09 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos167 of 178 plays carry both curves
(:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −8.0 for ChiefsExpected points −4.47 for ChiefsThe model had Broncos 10 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:12KC +8% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:52KC +8% win prob(9:52) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at KC 14 for 49 yards (38-R.Parker).
2nd · 10:59KC +8% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to DEN 14 for 40 yards (29-B.Roby).
2nd · 12:25DEN +7% win prob(12:25) 10-E.Sanders left end to KC 37 for -6 yards (92-T.Kpassagnon).
2nd · 9:36KC +7% win prob(9:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:19KC +6% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Watkins. PENALTY on DEN-29-B.Roby, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at KC 43 - No Play.
2nd · 13:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 9-yard touchdown catch with 9:36 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
1st2:21Harrison Butker·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+37–3
2nd9:36Travis Kelce·9-yd TD catch9-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+77–10
2nd1:00Sammy Watkins·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes · kick no good, wide left+67–16
2nd0:12Tim Patrick·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum+714–16
3rd10:23Sammy Watkins·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–23
3rd5:19Kareem Hunt·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+714–30
4th15:00Jeff Heuerman·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Case Keenumfrom Case Keenum · two-point no good+620–30
4th1:52Brandon McManus·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+323–30
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos5–4Chiefs
411Total yards340
5.9Yards per play6.3
51%Success rate44%
33%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
11Explosive plays6
22First downs17
5Sacks taken2
2Turnovers1
The read
Broncos ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Broncos: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.15Chiefs: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.02Broncos: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.32Chiefs: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Broncos: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.22Chiefs: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 70 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 54 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Chiefs 5.
NoteBroncos outgained Chiefs 411-340 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.3% in week 7 against 13.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Chiefs20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.66× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.3 pts, 8.6 points below their season mean of -2.7 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum pass+11% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:52) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at KC 14 for 49 yards (38-R.Parker).
Q1 9:52 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 37 · gained 49 · +3.30 EP · +11.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 92 yards from the KC 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
751
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.0967%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0960%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.7880%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.4918%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.3256%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.8240%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Chiefs 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Broncos6Chiefs0
Broncos7Chiefs0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Chiefs 1
Broncos7Chiefs3
Field goal16 plays, from the Chiefs 37 to the Broncos 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 42
2nd quarter43 plays
No good10 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Broncos7Chiefs9
Broncos7Chiefs10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Broncos 9
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Chiefs 49
Broncos7Chiefs16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Broncos 13
Broncos13Chiefs16
Broncos14Chiefs16
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Broncos14Chiefs22
Broncos14Chiefs23
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Broncos 10
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Broncos 20
Broncos14Chiefs29
Broncos14Chiefs30
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 23
The period ended13 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 7
4th quarter54 plays
Broncos20Chiefs30
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 36
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Broncos 39 to the Chiefs 39
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to the Broncos 35
Intercepted4 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 41
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 49
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 20
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 27 to the Chiefs 29
Broncos23Chiefs30
Field goal10 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Chiefs 18
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Broncos 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -8.5
Closing total
53
Broncos moneyline
+337
Chiefs moneyline
-389
Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 53 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 58°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Broncos 10 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Vance Joseph vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
KC +6% win prob
(13:11) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep middle to 10-E.Sanders. PENALTY on KC-22-O.Scandrick, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at KC 44 - No Play.
3rd · 10:46KC +6% win prob(10:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 21 for 18 yards (31-J.Simmons; 35-Dy.Thomas) [48-S.Barrett]. PENALTY on DEN-48-S.Barrett, Roughing the Passer, 11 yards, enforced at DEN 21.
