2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Arrowhead Stadium

Denver Broncos

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -8.5 no cover53 pushChiefs closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 30–23. Biggest swing: Q2 0:12, KC +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:12DEN — KC DEN ball · 3rd & 10KC 90%

(:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:12KC +8% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:52KC +8% win prob(9:52) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 10-E.Sanders pushed ob at KC 14 for 49 yards (38-R.Parker).
Q2 · 10:59KC +8% win prob(10:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill to DEN 14 for 40 yards (29-B.Roby).
Q2 · 12:25DEN +7% win prob(12:25) 10-E.Sanders left end to KC 37 for -6 yards (92-T.Kpassagnon).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chiefs
Offensive plays	70	54
Total yards	411 (edge)	340
Yards per play	5.9	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.05	0.15 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	57%	69%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	4/12 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	5	2 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Broncos outgained Chiefs 411–340 but lost the turnover battle 2–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/34, 303 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT

12.3 expected points added · +11.2% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Case KeenumQB

23/34, 262 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.6 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Phillip LindsayRB

18 att, 95 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

Devontae BookerRB

9 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Sammy WatkinsWR

8/9 for 107 yds, 2 TD

29% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

6/10 for 79 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 1.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	5	8	1:28	Punt
2	KC	KC 37	4	0	1:35	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 19	9	81	4:17	Touchdown
4	KC	KC 37	12	60	5:22	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 19	12	49	5:37	Turnover on downs
6	KC	KC 45	5	55	2:10	Touchdown
7	DEN	DEN 26	8	13	4:13	Punt
8	KC	KC 8	9	87	4:24	Touchdown
9	DEN	DEN 25	7	75	0:49	Touchdown
10	KC	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
11	KC	KC 17	11	72	4:44	Touchdown
12	DEN	DEN 19	6	6	3:11	Punt
13	KC	DEN 32	5	32	1:53	Touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 25	14	85	5:15	Touchdown
15	KC	KC 25	3	11	0:31	Interception
16	DEN	DEN 39	4	20	2:10	Fumble
17	KC	KC 46	6	13	2:56	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 20	4	21	1:18	Interception
19	KC	KC 45	4	4	0:52	Punt
20	DEN	DEN 12	4	6	2:07	Punt
21	KC	KC 27	4	-4	1:03	Punt
22	DEN	DEN 36	10	46	2:12	Turnover on downs
23	KC	DEN 37	5	10	1:44	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 15	1	1	0:04	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 87 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Case Keenum	23/34	262	2	1	5	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Phillip Lindsay	18	95	5.3	1	1.8
Devontae Booker	9	78	8.7	0	2.6
Tim Patrick	1	13	13.0	0	0.9
Case Keenum	1	9	9.0	0	0.1
Emmanuel Sanders	1	-6	-6.0	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Courtland Sutton	3	4	78	0	12%	5.4
Emmanuel Sanders	4	4	57	0	12%	3.1
Demaryius Thomas	3	7	30	0	21%	-3.7
Matt LaCosse	4	5	29	0	15%	0.7
Tim Patrick	1	1	24	1	3%	4.5
Devontae Booker	4	4	23	0	12%	-0.9
Phillip Lindsay	3	3	17	0	9%	0.3
Jeff Heuerman	1	5	4	1	15%	1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bradley Roby	5	1	0.0	0	0
Todd Davis	4	2	0.0	0	1
Justin Simmons	4	1	0.0	1	1
Josey Jewell	4	1	0.0	0	0
Shaquil Barrett	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	2	0.5	0	0
Chris Harris	3	1	0.0	0	0
Will Parks	1	2	0.0	0	0
Von Miller	0	3	0.5	0	0
Shelby Harris	1	1	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/34	303	4	1	2	12.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kareem Hunt	16	50	3.1	0	-2.7
Patrick Mahomes	2	-1	-0.5	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Sammy Watkins	8	9	107	2	29%	9.4
Travis Kelce	6	10	79	1	32%	1.9
Tyreek Hill	3	4	70	0	13%	5.9
Kareem Hunt	5	6	36	1	19%	1.7
Anthony Sherman	1	1	10	0	3%	-0.5
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	1	0	3%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	5	3	0.0	0	0
Reggie Ragland	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jordan Lucas	6	0	0.0	0	0
Dee Ford	4	1	3.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Eric Murray	5	0	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	2	0.0	1	1
Ron Parker	4	1	0.0	0	0
Breeland Speaks	3	1	1.0	0	0
Dorian O'Daniel	3	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -8.5
Closing total: 53
DEN moneyline: +337
KC moneyline: -389

Chiefs closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 53 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 56°F, wind 12 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DEN 10 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Vance Joseph vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.