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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
PackersGreen Bay27
BY 2final margin
RamsLos Angeles29
Green Bay Packers 27 at Los Angeles Rams 29. Final.
Rams -7.5 no coverU 57 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
Los Angeles Rams 29, Packers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 2:05 — 30.1 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:05
Unnamed on the sheet
Rams
4-G.Zuerlein kicks 67 yards from LA 35 to GB -2. 88-T.Montgomery to GB 20 for 22 yards (52-R.Wilson). FUMBLES (52-R.Wilson), RECOVERED by LA-52-R.Wilson at GB 21. 52-R.Wilson to GB 21 for no gain (54-J.Crawford).
Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Los Angeles Rams 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:05, Rams +30.1% win probability on one snap.
30.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingPackersQ4 8:57(8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.2pts
Aaron RodgersRamsQ4 5:57(5:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 15 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald).
15.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Rams won this one — 8 of 18 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Packers at 1 giveaway.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Packers owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Rams at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Packers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Packers168 of 182 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 2:05Packers 27 — Rams 29GB ballLA 65%
Packers 35%Rams 65%
4-G.Zuerlein kicks 67 yards from LA 35 to GB -2. 88-T.Montgomery to GB 20 for 22 yards (52-R.Wilson). FUMBLES (52-R.Wilson), RECOVERED by LA-52-R.Wilson at GB 21. 52-R.Wilson to GB 21 for no gain (54-J.Crawford).
Swing +30.1 for RamsExpected points +4.64 for RamsModel and market agree here.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:05GB +30% win prob4-G.Zuerlein kicks 67 yards from LA 35 to GB -2. 88-T.Montgomery to GB 20 for 22 yards (52-R.Wilson). FUMBLES (52-R.Wilson), RECOVERED by LA-52-R.Wilson at GB 21. 52-R.Wilson to GB 21 for no gain (54-J.Crawford).
4th · 8:57LA +25% win prob(8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:57GB +16% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 15 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald).
3rd · 7:28LA +11% win prob(7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 30-T.Gurley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:35LA +10% win prob(4:35) 30-T.Gurley left tackle to GB 13 for 23 yards (23-J.Alexander).
1st · 7:18LA +9% win prob(7:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to LA 22 for 48 yards (20-L.Joyner).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 34-yard field goal with 2:09 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th2:09Greg Zuerlein·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+327–29
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryRams
Packers3–5Rams
359Total yards419
6.9Yards per play5.5
44%Success rate42%
22%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays9
16First downs24
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Packers: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Packers: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.25Rams: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Packers: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 52 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Rams’s 76 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Packers 3, Rams 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Rams23.5%
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was GB's sack or hit rate, 17.8% against a season mean of 12.2% — and GB swings 5.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
53 dressed · 8 never used
69David BakhtiariT · Every snap100%52 snaps
74Byron BellT · Every snap100%52 snaps
75Bryan BulagaOT · Every snap100%52 snaps
65Lane TaylorG · Every snap100%52 snaps
63Corey LinsleyC · Every snap100%52 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%52 snaps
80Jimmy GrahamTE · Full-time88%46 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Heavy rotation77%40 snaps
33Aaron JonesRB · Heavy rotation62%32 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation60%31 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Zuerlein kicks−29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
4-G.Zuerlein kicks 67 yards from LA 35 to GB -2. 88-T.Montgomery to GB 20 for 22 yards (52-R.Wilson). FUMBLES (52-R.Wilson), RECOVERED by LA-52-R.Wilson at GB 21. 52-R.Wilson to GB 21 for no gain (54-J.Crawford).
Q4 2:05 · Packers · Kickoff at LA 35 · gained nothing · -4.64 EP · −28.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR75+0.0655%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.2377%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1344%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 37
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Packers6Rams0
Packers7Rams0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 1
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Rams 26
2nd quarter53 plays
Packers10Rams0
Field goal2 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 23
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 46
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 21
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Packers 43
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 27
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 47
Packers10Rams2
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.9 seconds
Packers10Rams8
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Packers 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 25
Packers13Rams8
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Rams 26
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Packers13Rams14
Packers13Rams16
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Packers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 26
Packers13Rams22
Packers13Rams23
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Packers 19
Packers19Rams23
Packers20Rams23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 33
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Packers20Rams26
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Packers 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Packers26Rams26
Packers27Rams26
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Rams 40
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 40
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers27Rams29
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Packers 13
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended7 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Packers 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Packerscategory by categoryRams
Packers6
Rams0
