2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Green Bay Packers

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -7.5 no coverU 57 ✓Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Los Angeles Rams 29–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 2:05, GB +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:05GB — LA GB ballLA 65%

4-G.Zuerlein kicks 67 yards from LA 35 to GB -2. 88-T.Montgomery to GB 20 for 22 yards (52-R.Wilson). FUMBLES (52-R.Wilson), RECOVERED by LA-52-R.Wilson at GB 21. 52-R.Wilson to GB 21 for no gain (54-J.Crawford).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:05GB +30% win prob4-G.Zuerlein kicks 67 yards from LA 35 to GB -2. 88-T.Montgomery to GB 20 for 22 yards (52-R.Wilson). FUMBLES (52-R.Wilson), RECOVERED by LA-52-R.Wilson at GB 21. 52-R.Wilson to GB 21 for no gain (54-J.Crawford).
Q4 · 8:57LA +25% win prob(8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:57GB +16% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 15 for -10 yards (99-A.Donald).
Q3 · 7:28LA +11% win prob(7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 30-T.Gurley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Rams
Offensive plays	52	76
Total yards	359	419 (edge)
Yards per play	6.9 (edge)	5.5
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	0.11
Success rate	44% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	65%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19	0.25 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	2/9	8/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9	9
First downs gained on snaps	16	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

19/35, 295 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

18/30, 286 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.4 expected points added · -5.4% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Todd GurleyRB

25 att, 114 yds, 0 TD

-2.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

5/7 for 133 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 10.0 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Todd GurleyRB

6/7 for 81 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 5.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	8	24	3:34	Punt
2	LA	LA 20	7	19	3:22	Punt
3	GB	GB 25	7	75	2:03	Touchdown
4	LA	LA 11	8	19	2:49	Punt
5	GB	GB 32	7	45	3:53	Turnover on downs
6	LA	LA 25	6	5	2:05	Punt
7	GB	GB 18	4	3	1:50	Punt
8	LA	LA 38	8	19	3:08	Punt
9	GB	GB 4	6	21	2:27	Punt
10	LA	LA 20	7	27	1:55	Punt
11	GB	GB 1	1	-1	0:07	Turnover on downs
12	LA	LA 28	9	72	2:26	Touchdown
13	GB	GB 29	2	5	0:21	End of half
14	LA	LA 20	5	5	1:03	Punt
15	GB	GB 27	9	38	4:19	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 25	9	77	2:19	Touchdown
17	GB	GB 21	5	5	1:12	Punt
18	LA	LA 34	9	71	4:17	Touchdown
19	GB	GB 25	7	75	1:37	Touchdown
20	LA	LA 25	9	50	3:34	Turnover on downs
21	GB	GB 25	7	75	2:49	Touchdown
22	LA	LA 27	6	4	2:01	Punt
23	GB	GB 21	4	-6	1:29	Punt
24	LA	GB 40	7	34	3:15	Turnover on downs
25	GB	—	1	0	0:09	Fumble
26	LA	GB 21	4	17	1:56	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 77 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	18/30	286	1	0	3	6.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	12	86	7.2	1	1.9
Jamaal Williams	4	9	2.3	1	-0.0
Ty Montgomery	2	6	3.0	0	-0.6
Aaron Rodgers	1	5	5.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	5	7	133	0	23%	10.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	2	5	45	1	17%	2.1
Randall Cobb	4	5	40	0	17%	2.5
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	2	31	0	7%	2.2
Jimmy Graham	1	4	21	0	13%	-0.1
Geronimo Allison	1	1	14	0	3%	0.9
Ty Montgomery	1	2	2	0	7%	-0.9
Aaron Jones	2	2	0	0	7%	-1.3
Jamaal Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8
Robert Tonyan	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Blake Martinez	7	5	1.0	0
Jaire Alexander	7	0	0.0	5
Clay Matthews	7	0	1.0	0
Jermaine Whitehead	6	1	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	3	2	2.0	0
Reggie Gilbert	4	0	0.0	0
Oren Burks	3	0	0.0	0
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix	3	0	0.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	1	1	1.0	0
Kevin King	2	0	0.0	1

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	19/35	295	3	0	5	8.2
Johnny Hekker	1/1	12	0	0	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Todd Gurley	25	114	4.6	-2.1
Brandin Cooks	2	9	4.5	-0.1
Jared Goff	5	7	1.4	-5.7
Malcolm Brown	1	7	7.0	0.3
Josh Reynolds	1	-2	-2.0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Todd Gurley	6	7	81	1	22%	5.7
Brandin Cooks	3	8	74	0	25%	0.1
Robert Woods	5	7	70	0	22%	5.3
Josh Reynolds	3	5	42	2	16%	5.8
Gerald Everett	1	2	22	0	6%	1.9
Sam Shields	1	1	12	0	3%	3.1
Tyler Higbee	1	1	6	0	3%	1.1
Nick Williams	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Cory Littleton	7	1	1.0	0
Marcus Peters	5	1	0.0	0
Mark Barron	4	1	0.0	0
Lamarcus Joyner	3	1	0.0	0
John Johnson	2	2	0.0	1
Samson Ebukam	1	2	0.0	0
Aaron Donald	2	1	2.0	0
Ramik Wilson	2	0	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	2	0	0.0	0
Nickell Robey	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7.5
Closing total: 57
GB moneyline: +297
LA moneyline: -340

Rams closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 57; the game landed 56 — under by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 82°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Ron Torbert
Rest: GB 13 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Sean McVay