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2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
Final
ColtsIndianapolis42
BY 14final margin
RaidersOakland28
Indianapolis Colts 42 at Oakland Raiders 28. Final.
Colts -3.5 ✓O 51 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
Indianapolis Colts 42, Raiders 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 1:06, 3rd and 5, on B.LaFell — 15.2 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 1:06 · 3rd and 5
B.LaFell
Colts
(1:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 19-B.LaFell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.2
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Indianapolis Colts 42–28. Biggest swing: Q3 1:06, Colts +15.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.CookColtsQ2 6:20(6:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
12.8pts
Marlon MackColtsQ4 10:50(10:50) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 99 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Colts160 of 168 plays carry both curves
(1:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 19-B.LaFell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.2 for RaidersExpected points −2.57 for RaidersThe model had Colts 20 points higher than the market did.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 1:06OAK +15% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 19-B.LaFell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:50OAK +13% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:20OAK +13% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 7:45OAK +12% win prob(7:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:49OAK +11% win prob(9:49) 25-M.Mack left tackle pushed ob at LV 26 for 49 yards (42-K.Joseph).
4th · 13:22OAK +10% win prob(13:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton to LV 15 for 34 yards (25-E.Harris).
4th · 6:29
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jack Doyle's 10-yard touchdown catch with 5:33 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st8:27Mo Alie-Cox·26-yd TD catch26-yard touchdown catchfrom Andrew Luckfrom Andrew Luck+77–0
2nd15:00Colts·3 pts3 pointsthe league feed did not file the play that scored themthe league feed did not file the play that scored them+310–0
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
IND's sack or hit rate, 3.6%, is past their previous low of 6.1% in week 6 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.9 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.0 pts, 16.3 points below their season mean of 3.3 pts and 2.2 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
53 dressed · 9 never used
74Anthony CastonzoT · Every snap100%78 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%78 snaps
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%78 snaps
12Andrew LuckQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%78 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Full-time90%70 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Full-time82%64 snaps
15Dontrelle InmanWR · Heavy rotation74%58 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation73%57 snaps
25Marlon MackRB · Heavy rotation63%49 snaps
80Chester RogersWR · Heavy rotation50%39 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Rotational36%28 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational36%28 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Rotational32%25 snaps
45Ryan HewittTE · Rotational27%21 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Situational22%17 snaps
67Evan BoehmG · Situational10%8 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational4%3 snaps
62Le'Raven ClarkOG · Situational1%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Chris MiltonCBHassan RidgewayDTMalik HookerFSDenzelle GoodOTJacoby BrissettQBRobert TurbinRBErik SwoopeTESteve IshmaelWRRyan GrantWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mack up+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:50) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:50 · Colts · 3rd & goal at LV 4 · gained 4 · +2.52 EP · +13.0% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 80 yards from the LV 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
53%
Yards
810
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.5352%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.2074%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.5950%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.1118%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0157%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.7780%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Raiders1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Colts6Raiders0
Colts7Raiders0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 26
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 33
Drive ended12 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Raiders 9
2nd quarter1 plays
Colts10Raiders0
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter3 plays
2nd quarter47 plays
Colts10Raiders6
Colts10Raiders7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Colts 31
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 32
Colts10Raiders13
Colts10Raiders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Colts 25
Colts13Raiders14
Field goal21 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 7
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Colts13Raiders20
Colts13Raiders21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Colts19Raiders21
Colts21Raiders21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Colts21Raiders27
Colts21Raiders28
Touchdown14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 32
4th quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Colts27Raiders28
Colts28Raiders28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Colts 38 to the Raiders 3
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Colts34Raiders28
Colts35Raiders28
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Raiders 10
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts41Raiders28
Colts42Raiders28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 43
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 43 to the Raiders 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
