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Houston Texans 42, Dolphins 23 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 4:31, 2nd and 8, on Will Fuller — 14.8 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:31 · 2nd and 8
Will Fuller
Texans
(4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Houston Texans 42–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:31, Texans +14.8% win probability on one snap.
14.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Justin ReidTexansQ2 15:00(15:00) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid at MIA 37. 20-J.Reid to MIA 16 for 21 yards (83-N.O'Leary).
9.5pts
Kenyan DrakeDolphinsQ3 5:03(5:03) 80-D.Amendola pass deep right to 32-K.Drake for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Direct snap to #8, who laterals to #80, who threw the pass.
9.1pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.83 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.32 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Dolphins at 2 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Dolphins at 4 of 13 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Dolphins166 of 177 plays carry both curves
(4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.8 for TexansExpected points +5.97 for TexansThe model had Dolphins 9 points higher than the market did.play 123
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:31HOU +15% win prob(4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00MIA +9% win prob(15:00) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid at MIA 37. 20-J.Reid to MIA 16 for 21 yards (83-N.O'Leary).
3rd · 5:03HOU +9% win prob(5:03) 80-D.Amendola pass deep right to 32-K.Drake for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Direct snap to #8, who laterals to #80, who threw the pass.
1st · 2:58HOU +7% win prob(2:58) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at MIA 22 for 34 yards (20-R.Jones).
1st · 5:07HOU +6% win prob(5:07) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. PENALTY on HOU-93-J.Heath, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at HOU 24 - No Play.
3rd · 11:43HOU +5% win prob(11:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 83-J.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jordan Thomas's 13-yard touchdown catch with 14:18 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Texans ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.83 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Dolphins: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.32Texans: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Dolphins: −0.15 expected points added per play
+0.83Texans: +0.83 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.01Texans: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 65 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Texans’s 54 at 39%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Texans 6.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
HOU's pass rate over expected, −11.5 pts, is past their previous low of −7.9 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 8 charted games through week 8.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 13 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.7 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Texans12.5%
right on their number · −1.0 vs their 13.5%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 29.3%, 23.3 points below their season mean of 52.6% and 2.0 times their own 11.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 4:31 · Texans · 2nd & 8 at HOU 27 · gained 73 · +5.97 EP · +17.2% win probability
164 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 177 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 75 yards from the HOU 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
177 of 177 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
177
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
797
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61-0.1461%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR28+0.2039%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.7147%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.1520%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Texans3 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
177 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
177 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Dolphins 30 to the Texans 28
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 35
Dolphins6Texans0
Dolphins7Texans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Texans 12
Dolphins7Texans6
Dolphins7Texans7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Dolphins 2
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Dolphins7Texans13
Dolphins7Texans14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 13
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 33
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Dolphins 43
Dolphins10Texans14
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Texans 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 34
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 45
Punt1 play
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter46 plays
Dolphins10Texans20
Dolphins10Texans21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Dolphins 2
Punt10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 46
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Texans 19
Dolphins16Texans21
Dolphins17Texans21
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Texans 28
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Dolphins17Texans27
Dolphins17Texans28
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 27
Dolphins20Texans28
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Texans 23
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter41 plays
Dolphins20Texans34
Dolphins20Texans35
Touchdown2 plays
Dolphins23Texans35
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 26 to the Texans 28
Dolphins23Texans41
Dolphins23Texans42
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Dolphins 2
Punt5 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 29 to the Dolphins 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Dolphins 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
