2018 Week 8 · Thu, Oct 25, 2018 · NRG Stadium

Miami Dolphins

Houston TexansWinner

HOU -7.5 ✓O 45 ✓DomeTexans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Houston Texans 42–23 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:31, HOU +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:31MIA — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 8HOU 79%

(4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:31HOU +15% win prob(4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 15:00MIA +9% win prob(15:00) 8-B.Osweiler pass deep middle intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Reid at MIA 37. 20-J.Reid to MIA 16 for 21 yards (83-N.O'Leary).
Q3 · 5:03HOU +9% win prob(5:03) 80-D.Amendola pass deep right to 32-K.Drake for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Direct snap to #8, who laterals to #80, who threw the pass.
Q1 · 2:58HOU +7% win prob(2:58) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at MIA 22 for 34 yards (20-R.Jones).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Texans
Offensive plays	65	54
Total yards	370	428 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	7.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.09	0.32 (edge)
Success rate	37%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	62%	39%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	0.83 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.01
Third downs	4/13	6/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Brock OsweilerQB

21/37, 241 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.6 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

16/20, 239 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

15.5 expected points added · +14.1% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Lamar MillerRB

18 att, 133 yds, 1 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

Kenyan DrakeRB

12 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

0.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

6/9 for 134 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 9.9 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

5/6 for 124 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 30	9	37	4:11	Turnover on downs
2	HOU	HOU 28	4	7	1:19	Punt
3	MIA	MIA 31	10	57	4:32	Touchdown
4	HOU	HOU 25	11	75	4:27	Touchdown
5	MIA	MIA 10	3	5	0:41	Interception
6	HOU	MIA 16	3	16	0:36	Touchdown
7	MIA	MIA 25	5	7	1:33	Punt
8	HOU	HOU 8	10	59	5:12	Punt
9	MIA	MIA 20	10	61	4:32	Turnover on downs
10	HOU	HOU 25	5	9	1:21	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 24	7	21	1:16	Defensive touchdown
12	HOU	HOU 14	1	0	0:20	End of half
13	HOU	HOU 25	8	80	3:26	Touchdown
14	MIA	MIA 25	8	16	2:43	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 17	4	2	2:10	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 49	5	51	1:46	Touchdown
17	HOU	HOU 25	4	75	0:34	Touchdown
18	MIA	MIA 25	8	52	3:45	Turnover on downs
19	HOU	MIA 49	4	49	0:47	Touchdown
20	MIA	MIA 26	8	46	3:23	Turnover on downs
21	HOU	HOU 25	8	32	3:52	Touchdown
22	MIA	MIA 28	5	-4	1:41	Punt
23	HOU	HOU 29	10	24	4:47	Punt
24	MIA	MIA 11	3	21	1:06	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brock Osweiler	21/37	241	0	1	2	-8.6
Danny Amendola	1/1	28	1	0	0	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	12	58	4.8	1	0.3
Frank Gore	12	53	4.4	0	-0.1
Kalen Ballage	1	5	5.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	6	9	134	0	27%	9.9
Danny Amendola	5	6	43	0	18%	-2.7
Kenyan Drake	2	2	37	1	6%	3.4
Jakeem Grant	4	8	36	0	24%	-0.3
Mike Gesicki	4	5	14	0	15%	-3.1
Frank Gore	1	2	5	0	6%	-4.3
Durham Smythe	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Kiko Alonso	3	5
Raekwon McMillan	5	2
Cameron Wake	5	1
Reshad Jones	3	3
Jerome Baker	1	4
Bobby McCain	4	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	2	2
Vincent Taylor	1	2
Akeem Spence	2	1
Xavien Howard	1	1

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	16/20	239	5	0	0	15.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Miller	18	133	7.4	1	4.7
Alfred Blue	15	42	2.8	0	-4.9
Deshaun Watson	1	14	14.0	0	2.0
Brandon Weeden	1	-1	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	5	6	124	1	30%	6.0
DeAndre Hopkins	6	7	82	2	35%	7.6
Jordan Thomas	4	4	29	2	20%	4.1
Tyler Ervin	1	1	4	0	5%	-0.2
Lamar Miller	0	2	0	0	10%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kareem Jackson	7	2	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	4	4	0.0	1	2
Tyrann Mathieu	6	1	1.0	0	0
Benardrick McKinney	5	1	0.0	0	2
Peter Kalambayi	1	4	0.0	0	0
Natrell Jamerson	3	1	0.0	0	1
J.J. Watt	3	1	1.0	0	1
Josh Keyes	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jadeveon Clowney	1	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Cunningham	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -7.5
Closing total: 45
MIA moneyline: +295
HOU moneyline: -337

Texans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 45; the game landed 65 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: MIA 4 days · HOU 4 days
Coaches: Adam Gase vs Bill O'Brien