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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:22 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 25 at Buffalo Bills 6. Final.
Patriots -13.5 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
New England Patriots 25, Bills 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 3:04, 1st and 10, on Derek Anderson — 8.9 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:04 · 1st and 10
Derek Anderson
Patriots
(3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.
15.2 mph wind
Patriots closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 19.
New England Patriots 25–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:04, Patriots +8.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
8.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cordarrelle PattersonBillsQ1 13:49(13:49) 84-C.Patterson left tackle to NE 34 for -4 yards (58-M.Milano).
7.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ1 12:54(12:54) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
5.4pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.08 expected points per snap, against Bills at -0.37 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.19 expected points per dropback, against Bills at -0.37 expected points per dropback.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 21.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 48 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots173 of 185 plays carry both curves
(3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.
Swing −8.9 for BillsExpected points −6.04 for BillsThe model had Bills 26 points higher than the market did.play 123
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:04NE +9% win prob(3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 13:49NE +8% win prob(13:49) 84-C.Patterson left tackle to NE 34 for -4 yards (58-M.Milano).
1st · 12:54BUF +5% win prob(12:54) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
1st · 12:05BUF +5% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 11-Z.Jones pushed ob at NE 48 for 8 yards (30-J.McCourty). Caught along sideline at NE 48.
2nd · 15:00BUF +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan to BUF 38 for 29 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at NE 49, slanting right.
3rd · 9:29NE +4% win prob(9:29) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 35 for 31 yards (6-R.Allen; 36-B.King).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Stephen Gostkowski's 25-yard field goal with 4:49 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:49Stephen Gostkowski·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+33–0
2nd11:51Stephen Gostkowski·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+36–0
2nd5:46Stephen Gostkowski·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+39–0
2nd1:44Stephen Hauschka·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+39–3
3rd7:42Stephen Hauschka·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+39–6
3rd2:06Stephen Gostkowski·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap J.Cardona+312–6
4th10:01James White·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+618–6
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Patriots: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.37Bills: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.19Patriots: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.37Bills: −0.37 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Patriots: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.36Bills: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 70 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Bills’s 62 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Bills 0.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bills8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −7.6 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.82× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 65.5%, 11.8 points above their season mean of 53.6% and 1.2 times their own 9.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Anderson sacked−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q3 3:04 · Bills · 1st & 10 at BUF 33 · lost 4 · -6.04 EP · −18.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 85 yards from the NE 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.14
Success rate
35%
Yards
720
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1373%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.3578%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.0782%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.6264%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1667%
Patriots1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Patriots0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 38
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Patriots 43
Patriots3Bills0
Field goal16 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Bills 4
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 31
2nd quarter47 plays
Patriots6Bills0
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 33 to the Bills 22
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 36
Patriots9Bills0
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Bills 20
Patriots9Bills3
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 29
No good8 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 11 to the Patriots 39
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Patriots 12
Patriots9Bills6
Field goal4 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 33
Punt10 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Bills 46
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Bills 33
Patriots12Bills6
Field goal5 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Bills 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 42
4th quarter52 plays
Punt2 plays
Patriots18Bills6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Bills 1
Patriots24Bills6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 25
Patriots25Bills6
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 32
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Patriots 39
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Patriots 35
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -13.5
Closing total
44
Patriots moneyline
-1018
Bills moneyline
+744
Patriots closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 44; the game landed 31 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 46°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the west; mainly clear.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Patriots 8 days · Bills 8 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 15.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 10:56NE +4% win prob(10:56) L.McCoy at QB (D.Anderson at WR). (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy left tackle to NE 43 for 1 yard (55-J.Simon).
4th · 13:23BUF +4% win prob(13:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 11-J.Edelman to NE 45 for 26 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught near sideline at NE 43.
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots3
Bills0
