2018 Week 8 · Mon, Oct 29, 2018 · New Era Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Buffalo Bills

NE -13.5 ✓U 44 ✓16 mph windPatriots closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 19.

New England Patriots 25–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 3:04, NE +9% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:04NE — BUF BUF ball · 1st & 10NE 81%

(3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:04NE +9% win prob(3:04) 3-D.Anderson sacked at BUF 27 for -6 yards (53-K.Van Noy). FUMBLES (53-K.Van Noy) [53-K.Van Noy], RECOVERED by NE-23-P.Chung at BUF 29. Penalty on BUF-62-V.Ducasse, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 · 13:49NE +8% win prob(13:49) 84-C.Patterson left tackle to NE 34 for -4 yards (58-M.Milano).
Q1 · 12:54BUF +5% win prob(12:54) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.
Q1 · 12:05BUF +5% win prob(12:05) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 11-Z.Jones pushed ob at NE 48 for 8 yards (30-J.McCourty). Caught along sideline at NE 48.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	70	62
Total yards	389 (edge)	334
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	5.4
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.37
Success rate	49% (edge)	34%
Dropback rate	69%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.19 (edge)	-0.37
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17 (edge)	-0.36
Third downs	5/14 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.37.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NE

Tom BradyQB

29/45, 324 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

7.6 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Derek AndersonQB

22/39, 290 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-15.8 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

-2.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Chris IvoryRB

6 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NE

Julian EdelmanWR

9/10 for 104 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

LeSean McCoyRB

6/8 for 82 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	8	9	2:17	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 32	7	25	2:42	Punt
3	NE	NE 20	15	69	5:15	Turnover on downs
4	BUF	BUF 22	7	25	3:06	Fumble
5	NE	NE 20	11	63	4:53	Turnover on downs
6	BUF	BUF 32	5	4	1:38	Punt
7	NE	NE 38	8	37	4:27	Turnover on downs
8	BUF	BUF 25	11	46	4:03	Turnover on downs
9	NE	NE 25	8	43	1:34	Turnover on downs
10	BUF	BUF 40	1	0	0:05	End of half
11	BUF	BUF 11	9	60	3:45	Punt
12	NE	NE 5	4	6	1:59	Punt
13	BUF	NE 35	4	2	1:37	Turnover on downs
14	NE	NE 25	9	39	3:57	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 20	2	9	0:47	Fumble
16	NE	BUF 29	5	22	0:52	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 25	7	24	2:15	Punt
18	NE	NE 15	11	94	4:50	Touchdown
19	BUF	BUF 25	10	60	4:04	Defensive touchdown
20	BUF	BUF 25	7	43	2:02	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 32	4	7	0:58	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 30	7	36	2:06	Turnover on downs
23	NE	NE 34	2	0	0:48	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 94 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	29/45	324	0	0	2	7.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cordarrelle Patterson	10	38	3.8	0	-2.8
James White	8	15	1.9	1	-1.9
Julian Edelman	2	13	6.5	0	1.6
Tom Brady	1	8	8.0	0	1.4
Kenjon Barner	2	4	2.0	0	-0.8
Brian Hoyer	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Julian Edelman	9	10	104	24%	4.4
James White	10	13	79	32%	4.4
Chris Hogan	2	2	49	5%	4.9
Rob Gronkowski	3	8	43	20%	-0.5
Josh Gordon	4	6	42	15%	0.8
James Develin	1	2	7	5%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kyle Van Noy	6	1	2.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	4	2	0.0	0	1
Patrick Chung	5	0	0.0	0	1
Jason McCourty	4	1	0.0	0	1
Trey Flowers	4	0	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Jones	3	0	0.0	0	0
Devin McCourty	2	1	0.0	1	1
Stephon Gilmore	3	0	0.0	0	2
Brandon King	1	1	0.0	0	0
Nicholas Grigsby	2	0	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Anderson	22/39	290	0	1	3	-15.8
Nathan Peterman	2/2	23	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Ivory	6	34	5.7	0.7
LeSean McCoy	12	13	1.1	-7.2
Derek Anderson	1	-1	-1.0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
LeSean McCoy	6	8	82	20%	4.3
Zay Jones	6	8	55	20%	2.2
Andre Holmes	2	3	45	8%	3.1
Kelvin Benjamin	2	7	45	18%	-4.8
Charles Clay	3	6	36	15%	-10.4
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	16	3%	0.7
Jason Croom	1	3	14	8%	-1.7
Chris Ivory	1	2	11	5%	-0.2
Cam Phillips	1	1	9	3%	0.4
Patrick DiMarco	1	1	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Phillip Gaines	9	1	0.0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	6	2	0.0	1
Matt Milano	5	2	0.0	2
Tre'Davious White	5	2	0.0	1
Lorenzo Alexander	4	1	2.0	0
Micah Hyde	4	1	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	1	0.0	0
Shaq Lawson	2	1	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	2	1	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -13.5
Closing total: 44
NE moneyline: -1018
BUF moneyline: +744

Patriots closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 44; the game landed 31 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather: 46°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NE 8 days · BUF 8 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.