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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
SaintsNew Orleans30
BY 10final margin
VikingsMinnesota20
New Orleans Saints 30 at Minnesota Vikings 20. Final.
Saints -2.5 ✓U 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
New Orleans Saints 30, Vikings 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:11, 1st and 10, on Adam Thielen — 35.0 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:11 · 1st and 10
Adam Thielen
Saints
(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NO 14 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (47-A.Anzalone), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to MIN 33 for 54 yards (11-L.Treadwell). PENALTY on MIN-11-L.Treadwell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.
Dome
Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
New Orleans Saints 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:11, Saints +35.0% win probability on one snap.
35.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison SmithVikingsQ2 3:07(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN 33. 22-H.Smith to MIN 33 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
13.4pts
P.J. WilliamsSaintsQ3 6:08(6:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at MIN 45. 26-P.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Saints won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.14 expected points per snap.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Saints154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NO 14 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (47-A.Anzalone), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to MIN 33 for 54 yards (11-L.Treadwell).
Swing −35.0 for VikingsExpected points −9.18 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 9 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:11NO +35% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NO 14 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (47-A.Anzalone), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to MIN 33 for 54 yards (11-L.Treadwell). PENALTY on MIN-11-L.Treadwell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.
3rd · 6:08NO +16% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at MIN 45. 26-P.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:07NO +13% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN 33. 22-H.Smith to MIN 33 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
1st · 3:21MIN +11% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:36MIN +10% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 13-M.Thomas to MIN 8 for 44 yards (23-G.Iloka) [93-S.Richardson]. Penalty on MIN-22-H.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 1:26MIN +9% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alvin Kamara's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:33 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Vikings ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Saints: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.14Vikings: −0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.18Saints: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.14Vikings: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Saints: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.15Vikings: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Vikings’s 66 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Vikings 4.
NoteVikings outgained Saints 423-270 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 8Against their seasonFourth Down
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 4 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 8.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.3-swing turn from week 7.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.1 points.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 4.9% in week 7 against 20.5% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Vikings8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 63.5 points above their season mean of 36.5% and 2.1 times their own 30.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 8 never used
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%53 snaps
60Max UngerC · Every snap100%53 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%53 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%53 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%53 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time96%51 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation77%41 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation64%34 snaps
22Mark IngramRB · Rotational43%23 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Rotational36%19 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Rotational34%18 snaps
82Benjamin WatsonTE · Rotational26%14 snaps
85Dan ArnoldTE · Situational19%10 snaps
81Cameron MeredithWR · Situational17%9 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational13%7 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Will ClappCCameron TomCKen CrawleyCBJ.T. GrayDBTrey HendricksonDEMitchell LoewenDEChaz GreenGJermon BushrodT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−27% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NO 14 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (47-A.Anzalone), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to MIN 33 for 54 yards (11-L.Treadwell). PENALTY on MIN-11-L.Treadwell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.
Q2 1:11 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at NO 18 · gained 4 · -9.18 EP · −27.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 91 yards from the MIN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
44%
Yards
693
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47-0.1872%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21-0.0562%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.3045%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11+0.2127%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2533%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0280%
Vikings2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo quarterbacks, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Saints6Vikings0
Saints7Vikings0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 19 to the Vikings 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Saints7Vikings6
Saints7Vikings7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Saints 1
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 28
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 35
2nd quarter44 plays
Saints7Vikings13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Vikings 36 to the Saints 1
Saints10Vikings13
Field goal10 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Vikings 34
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Vikings 45
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Saints 18
Saints16Vikings13
Saints17Vikings13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 18 to the Vikings 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
Saints20Vikings13
Field goal9 plays, from the Vikings 45 to the Vikings 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Saints26Vikings13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 44
Saints27Vikings13
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Saints 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Saints 16 to the Saints 38
4th quarter46 plays
Saints30Vikings13
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Vikings 24
Saints30Vikings19
Saints30Vikings20
Touchdown16 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Saints 1
Punt13 plays, from the Saints 43 to the Vikings 33
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Saints 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Saints -2.5
Closing total
53.5
Saints moneyline
-130
Vikings moneyline
+118
Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 50 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Saints 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Mike Zimmer
(1:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 17-A.Robinson pushed ob at NO 37 for 19 yards (25-E.Apple).
2nd · 4:33NO +8% win prob(4:33) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to NO 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 41-A.Kamara to NO 33 for 15 yards (42-B.Gedeon; 40-K.Brothers).
1st · 4:56MIN +7% win prob(4:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs to NO 1 for 31 yards (26-P.Williams) [93-D.Onyemata].
Saintscategory by categoryVikings
Saints6
Vikings0
