2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · U.S. Bank Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

NO -2.5 ✓U 53.5 ✓DomeSaints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

New Orleans Saints 30–20. Biggest swing: Q2 1:11, NO +35% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:11NO — MIN MIN ball · 1st & 10MIN 71%

(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NO 14 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (47-A.Anzalone), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to MIN 33 for 54 yards (11-L.Treadwell).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:11NO +35% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to NO 14 for 4 yards (47-A.Anzalone). FUMBLES (47-A.Anzalone), RECOVERED by NO-23-M.Lattimore at NO 13. 23-M.Lattimore to MIN 33 for 54 yards (11-L.Treadwell). PENALTY on MIN-11-L.Treadwell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 33.
Q3 · 6:08NO +16% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 26-P.Williams at MIN 45. 26-P.Williams for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 3:07NO +13% win prob(3:07) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at MIN 33. 22-H.Smith to MIN 33 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).
Q1 · 3:21MIN +11% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Vikings
Offensive plays	53	66
Total yards	270	423 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.01 (edge)	-0.14
Success rate	47% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	45%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.18 (edge)	-0.14
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.14 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	4/9	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	15	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Vikings outgained Saints 423–270 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

31/41, 359 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.9 expected points added · +7.3% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Drew BreesQB

18/23, 120 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Mark IngramRB

13 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Latavius MurrayRB

13 att, 56 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Stefon DiggsWR

10/11 for 119 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

7/7 for 103 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 19	10	81	4:27	Touchdown
2	MIN	MIN 9	15	96	7:17	Touchdown
3	NO	NO 25	5	3	2:14	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 20	8	67	4:05	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 33	9	28	4:30	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 25	6	26	3:06	Punt
7	NO	NO 33	4	22	1:18	Interception
8	MIN	MIN 33	8	46	2:06	Fumble
9	NO	MIN 18	3	18	0:27	Touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 25	2	7	0:30	End of half
11	MIN	MIN 25	7	20	2:32	Turnover on downs
12	NO	MIN 45	9	35	4:09	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 25	6	19	2:21	Defensive touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 20	7	24	3:08	Punt
15	NO	NO 16	15	65	8:15	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 25	15	65	5:09	Touchdown
17	NO	NO 43	9	18	3:17	Punt
18	MIN	MIN 9	5	53	1:09	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 96 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Brees	18/23	120	1	1	0	1.1
Taysom Hill	1/1	44	0	0	0	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mark Ingram	13	63	4.8	0	0.4
Alvin Kamara	13	45	3.5	1	-2.0
Taysom Hill	3	-2	-0.7	0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	5	6	81	0	26%	2.3
Alvin Kamara	7	8	31	1	35%	1.0
Mark Ingram	3	3	29	0	13%	1.6
Tre'Quan Smith	3	4	18	0	17%	1.7
Taysom Hill	1	1	5	0	4%	0.1
Austin Carr	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Eli Apple	9	0	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	2	4	0.0	0	0
P.J. Williams	4	2	0.0	1	1
Demario Davis	5	1	0.0	0	0
Vonn Bell	3	3	0.0	0	0
Marcus Williams	5	0	0.0	0	1
Alex Anzalone	4	1	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Rankins	3	0	2.0	0	0
Cameron Jordan	3	0	0.0	0	1
Justin Hardee	2	1	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	31/41	359	2	1	4	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	13	56	4.3	1	0.5
Adam Thielen	1	15	15.0	0	0.8
Mike Boone	3	11	3.7	0	-1.5
Kirk Cousins	2	3	1.5	0	-1.2
C.J. Ham	2	1	0.5	0	-1.0
Roc Thomas	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	10	11	119	1	28%	0.6
Adam Thielen	7	7	103	1	18%	1.8
Latavius Murray	5	6	39	0	15%	-0.1
Kyle Rudolph	4	7	39	0	18%	-0.6
Laquon Treadwell	3	5	25	0	13%	-1.7
Aldrick Robinson	1	2	19	0	5%	1.5
Roc Thomas	1	1	15	0	3%	0.0
David Morgan	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	2	5	0	0
Ben Gedeon	3	4	0	0
Trae Waynes	5	1	0	0
Jayron Kearse	4	1	0	0
Linval Joseph	3	2	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	1	4	0	0
Stephen Weatherly	2	1	0	0
Holton Hill	3	0	0	1
Tom Johnson	2	1	0	0
Harrison Smith	3	0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2.5
Closing total: 53.5
NO moneyline: -130
MIN moneyline: +118

Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 53.5; the game landed 50 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NO 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Mike Zimmer