2018 Week 8 · Sun, Oct 28, 2018 · Soldier Field

New York Jets

Chicago BearsWinner

CHI -8.5 ✓U 42.5 ✓18 mph windBears closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Chicago Bears 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 8:03, NYJ +11% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:03NYJ — CHI CHI ball · 4th & 4CHI 85%

(8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:03NYJ +11% win prob(8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q1 · 5:35CHI +8% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:16CHI +6% win prob(11:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 7:19CHI +5% win prob(7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 17-A.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Bears
Offensive plays	54	65
Total yards	207	395 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	26%	43% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.32 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	3/14	4/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	11	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0	0

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.08.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

16/29, 220 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

7.5 expected points added · -9.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

14/29, 153 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · -11.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

Jordan HowardRB

22 att, 81 yds, 1 TD

-3.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

6 att, 51 yds, 0 TD

5.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Tarik CohenRB

1/3 for 70 yds, 1 TD

10% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Deontay BurnettWR

4/4 for 61 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	6	1:58	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 30	8	43	5:03	Turnover on downs
3	NYJ	NYJ 30	4	5	1:39	Punt
4	CHI	CHI 12	4	88	0:56	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	15	56	8:25	Turnover on downs
6	CHI	CHI 25	9	27	3:38	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 13	7	20	2:56	Punt
8	CHI	CHI 35	4	0	1:06	Punt
9	NYJ	NYJ 24	4	4	1:44	Punt
10	CHI	CHI 29	7	16	2:11	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	0	0:24	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 25	7	27	3:02	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	0	1:04	Punt
14	CHI	CHI 45	10	50	3:41	Touchdown
15	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	7	1:45	Punt
16	CHI	50	10	36	5:32	Turnover on downs
17	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	60	3:46	Touchdown
18	CHI	CHI 21	10	79	4:02	Touchdown
19	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	12	1:42	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 13	9	29	3:33	Punt
21	NYJ	NYJ 10	5	37	1:53	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 88 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	14/29	153	1	0	1	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Isaiah Crowell	13	25	1.9	-5.6
Sam Darnold	5	22	4.4	-0.8
Trenton Cannon	6	10	1.7	1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Deontay Burnett	4	4	61	0	16%	3.9
Jermaine Kearse	3	10	30	0	40%	-2.3
Christopher Herndon	1	2	16	1	8%	1.4
Charone Peake	1	1	14	0	4%	0.8
Isaiah Crowell	1	1	13	0	4%	1.8
Trenton Cannon	3	4	12	0	16%	-2.7
Neal Sterling	1	1	7	0	4%	0.2
Andre Roberts	0	1	0	0	4%	2.7
Jordan Leggett	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Avery Williamson	7	1	0.0	0
Marcus Maye	7	0	0.0	0
Jamal Adams	6	0	0.0	0
Darryl Roberts	5	0	0.0	1
Mike Pennel	2	2	0.0	0
Darron Lee	2	2	0.0	0
Tarell Basham	2	0	0.0	0
Buster Skrine	2	0	0.0	0
Morris Claiborne	2	0	0.0	0
Brandon Copeland	2	0	1.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	16/29	220	2	0	2	7.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jordan Howard	22	81	3.7	1	-3.9
Mitchell Trubisky	6	51	8.5	0	5.6
Tarik Cohen	5	40	8.0	0	1.3
Anthony Miller	1	7	7.0	0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tarik Cohen	1	3	70	1	10%	4.6
Taylor Gabriel	4	6	52	0	21%	3.3
Anthony Miller	3	7	37	1	24%	1.6
Josh Bellamy	4	5	37	0	17%	2.1
Trey Burton	3	4	18	0	14%	-0.2
Kevin White	1	3	6	0	10%	-0.6
Jordan Howard	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Danny Trevathan	5	2	0.0	1
Roquan Smith	4	1	0.0	0
Eddie Goldman	2	2	0.0	0
Bryce Callahan	4	0	1.0	3
Roy Robertson-Harris	4	0	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	1	2	0.0	0
Bilal Nichols	3	0	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	1	2	0.0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	0	0.0	0
Isaiah Irving	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -8.5
Closing total: 42.5
NYJ moneyline: +305
CHI moneyline: -350

Bears closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 34 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NYJ 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Matt Nagy

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.