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Chicago Bears 24, Jets 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 8:03, 4th and 4, on Cody Parkey — 10.6 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:03 · 4th and 4
Cody Parkey
Jets
(8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
21.5 mph wind
Bears closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Chicago Bears 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 8:03, Jets +10.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 21.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tarik CohenBearsQ1 5:35(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.1pts
Christopher HerndonJetsQ4 11:16(11:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bears at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.08 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Jets157 of 167 plays carry both curves
(8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Swing −10.6 for BearsExpected points −3.45 for BearsThe model had Jets 20 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:03NYJ +11% win prob(8:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
1st · 5:35CHI +8% win prob(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:16CHI +6% win prob(11:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 89-C.Herndon for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 7:19CHI +5% win prob(7:19) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 17-A.Miller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:07NYJ +5% win prob(12:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
1st · 15:00NYJ +4% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 20-I.Crowell right tackle to NYJ 28 for 3 yards (91-E.Goldman; 96-A.Hicks).
3rd · 10:43
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tarik Cohen's 70-yard touchdown catch with 5:35 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Bears ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Jets: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.17Bears: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.32Bears: +0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Jets: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.01Bears: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 54 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Bears’s 65 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 1, Bears 4.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 69.5% in week 7 against 46.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 17.5%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bears6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.5 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.46× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.3%, 8.5 points below their season mean of 14.7% and 1.5 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:35) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:35 · Bears · 2nd & 10 at CHI 30 · gained 70 · +5.81 EP · +14.6% win probability
155 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 88 yards from the CHI 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
34%
Yards
602
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.0658%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1757%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.0420%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
No good9 plays, from the Bears 30 to the Jets 21
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Jets0Bears6
Jets0Bears7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 30
The period ended12 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bears 43
2nd quarter45 plays
Jets3Bears7
Field goal6 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Bears 24
Punt10 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Jets 48
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 33
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 28
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Bears 45
Punt5 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Jets 48
Punt5 plays
Jets3Bears13
Jets3Bears14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Jets 4
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 31
The period ended11 plays, from midfield to the Jets 13
4th quarter46 plays
Jets3Bears17
Field goal1 play
Jets9Bears17
Jets10Bears17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Bears 16
Jets10Bears23
Jets10Bears24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Jets 2
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 40
Punt12 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 45
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
