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Philadelphia Eagles 24 at Jacksonville Jaguars 18. Final.
Eagles -4 ✓U 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2018 Week 8
Philadelphia Eagles 24, Jaguars 18 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 1:33, 2nd and 9, on Jalen Ramsey — 17.8 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:33 · 2nd and 9
Jalen Ramsey
Jaguars
(1:33) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Perkins INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at JAX -9. Touchback.
15.1 mph wind
Eagles closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Philadelphia Eagles 24–18. Biggest swing: Q1 1:33, Jaguars +17.8% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.1 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
17.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jordan MatthewsEaglesQ1 12:37(12:37) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 80-J.Matthews ran ob at JAX 37 for 31 yards (43-Q.Meeks) [91-Y.Ngakoue].
11.4pts
Keelan ColeEaglesQ2 1:40(1:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to PHI 43 for 15 yards (29-A.Maddox). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), RECOVERED by PHI-27-M.Jenkins at PHI 45. 27-M.Jenkins to JAX 44 for 11 yards (68-A.Norwell).
15.3pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Eagles won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Jaguars at 6 of 14 on third down.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Eagles154 of 162 plays carry both curves
(1:33) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Perkins INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at JAX -9. Touchback.
Swing +17.8 for JaguarsExpected points +4.41 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 20 points higher than the market did.play 28
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:33PHI +18% win prob(1:33) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle intended for 83-J.Perkins INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ramsey at JAX -9. Touchback.
2nd · 1:40PHI +15% win prob(1:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to PHI 43 for 15 yards (29-A.Maddox). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), RECOVERED by PHI-27-M.Jenkins at PHI 45. 27-M.Jenkins to JAX 44 for 11 yards (68-A.Norwell).
1st · 12:37JAX +11% win prob(12:37) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep middle to 80-J.Matthews ran ob at JAX 37 for 31 yards (43-Q.Meeks) [91-Y.Ngakoue].
2nd · 0:38JAX +10% win prob(:38) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 88-D.Goedert for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:38JAX +10% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 12-D.Westbrook for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:48JAX +9% win prob(8:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dallas Goedert's 32-yard touchdown catch with 0:38 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:56Josh Lambo·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+30–3
2nd7:46Jake Elliott·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–3
2nd2:48Josh Lambo·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+33–6
4th7:00Josh Lambo·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Overton+324–18
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryJaguars
Eagles6–1Jaguars
398Total yards335
6.7Yards per play5.3
47%Success rate40%
64%Third-down rate43%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays5
22First downs17
4Sacks taken4
3Turnovers1
The read
Eagles ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Eagles: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.07Jaguars: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.29Eagles: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.02Jaguars: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Eagles: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.31Jaguars: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 63 at 83%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 4, Jaguars 3.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, +18.9 pts, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.1 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's early-down pass rate, 78.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 4.3 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's sack or hit rate, 24.3%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 8 — 0.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 17.9% in week 7.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 28 pts
right on their number · −3.0 vs their 18.4%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.39× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Jaguars24.3%
leaned — got home · +8.3 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2018 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 18.9 pts, 18.9 points above their season mean of 0.0 pts and 1.7 times their own 11.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Bortles pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to PHI 43 for 15 yards (29-A.Maddox). FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), RECOVERED by PHI-27-M.Jenkins at PHI 45. 27-M.Jenkins to JAX 44 for 11 yards (68-A.Norwell).
Q2 1:40 · Jaguars · 2nd & 10 at JAX 42 · gained 13 · -4.10 EP · −16.9% win probability
152 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 95 yards from the PHI 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
730
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.0478%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2363%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0445%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.0 seconds
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Jaguars 37
Eagles0Jaguars3
Field goal9 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Eagles 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Eagles 14 to the Jaguars 23
The period ended4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 23
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt1 play
Eagles3Jaguars3
Field goal13 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Jaguars 6
Eagles3Jaguars6
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Eagles 39
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 12 to the Eagles 15
Offense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Eagles9Jaguars6
Eagles10Jaguars6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 32
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Eagles 48
Eagles16Jaguars6
Eagles17Jaguars6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 5 to the Jaguars 36
Eagles17Jaguars12
Touchdown12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Eagles 11
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 26
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Eagles 37
4th quarter49 plays
Eagles17Jaguars15
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Eagles 15
Eagles23Jaguars15
Eagles24Jaguars15
Touchdown8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Jaguars 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Eagles24Jaguars18
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Eagles 6
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Eagles 35
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jaguars 27 to the Jaguars 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -4
Closing total
44.5
Eagles moneyline
-208
Jaguars moneyline
+186
Eagles closed -4 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 42 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Wembley Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 48°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the north-east; partly cloudy.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Eagles 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Doug Marrone
NoteWind at 15.1 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 12:08
PHI +9% win prob
(12:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at JAX 44 for -7 yards (99-M.Dareus). FUMBLES (99-M.Dareus) [99-M.Dareus], RECOVERED by JAX-50-Tel.Smith at JAX 33. 50-Tel.Smith to PHI 26 for 41 yards (11-C.Wentz). PENALTY on JAX-36-R.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 38. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 3:07JAX +8% win prob(3:07) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to JAX 24 for 39 yards (43-Q.Meeks).
